Latest voting intention survey by HBS for Turkey
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by HBS, the parties received the following results: AKP 30.9%, CHP 30.6%, DEM 8.7%, MHP 8%, İYİ 5.8%, ZP 5%, YRP 4.9%, TİP 1.6% and AP 1.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 3200 people during the period 05.01.2025 - 05.01.2025.
3200 participants
02.01.2025 - 05.01.2025
HBS
Seats in parliament
600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
235
39.2%
DEM
66
11%
AKP
238
39.7%
MHP
61
10.2%
AKP + DEM
CHP + DEM
AKP + MHP
Rating of parties
Institute often rates YRP higher
In 40% of election polls, HBS rates YRP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates ZP lower
In 50% of election polls HBS rates ZP lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.2
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in HBS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.2 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.24
|
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 | 14/28 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.