Current election polls and polling data from HBS

Latest voting intention survey by HBS for Turkey

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by HBS, the parties received the following results: AKP 30.9%, CHP 30.6%, DEM 8.7%, MHP 8%, İYİ 5.8%, ZP 5%, YRP 4.9%, TİP 1.6% and AP 1.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 3200 people during the period 05.01.2025 - 05.01.2025.
3200 participants
02.01.2025 - 05.01.2025
HBS
AKP
30.9
+0.6
CHP
30.6
-1.7
DEM
8.7
-0.7
MHP
8.0
-1.2
İYİ
5.8
+0.1
ZP
5.0
-0.3
YRP
4.9
+0.4
TİP
1.6
+1.6
AP
1.3
-0.8
Others
3.2
+2.0

Seats in parliament

600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
235
39.2%
DEM
66
11%
AKP
238
39.7%
MHP
61
10.2%
AKP + DEM
50.7%
CHP + DEM
50.2%
AKP + MHP
49.8%

67

PolitPro Score

HBS achieves a score of 67/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
AKP
0
82
18
CHP
9
64
27
DEM
27
64
9
MHP
9
73
18
TİP
0
100
0
YRP
0
60
40
ZP
50
50
0
İYİ
0
82
18

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.2

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in HBS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.2 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
2.24
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 14/28

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.