Latest voting intention survey by Saros for Turkey
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Turkey conducted by Saros, the parties received the following results: CHP 34.1%, AKP 30.4%, MHP 9.8%, DEM 9.4%, YRP 4.5%, İYİ 4.3%, ZP 2.4%, DEVA 1.2% and TİP 1.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 3217 people during the period 05.10.2024 - 05.10.2024.
3217 participants
01.10.2024 - 05.10.2024
Saros
CHP
34.1
±0.0
AKP
30.4
+0.1
MHP
9.8
+1.1
DEM
9.4
±0.0
YRP
4.5
-0.4
İYİ
4.3
+0.5
ZP
2.4
-0.2
DEVA
1.2
+1.2
TİP
1.2
-1.2
Others
2.7
-1.1
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
245
40.8%
DEM
67
11.2%
AKP
218
36.3%
MHP
70
11.7%
CHP + DEM
AKP + MHP
AKP + DEM
48
PolitPro Score
Saros achieves a score of 48/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
3.0
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Saros pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.0 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3
|
Parliamentary Election in Türkei 2023 | 25/28 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.