ALF
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3160 respondents
The next General election in Turkey is expected in 2028.
Based on the ALF projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 40.8% of the parliamentary seats.
In the latest opinion poll for the election in Turkey, conducted by ALF on December 13, 2024, AKP holds a lead with 32.8%. Trailing behind are CHP: 29.4%, MHP: 9.6%, DEM: 8.7%, Zafer Partisi: 5.6%, Yeniden Refah Partisi: 5.4% and İYİ: 3.4%. Other parties secure 5.1% of the votes.
ALF achieved a PolitPro Score of 65 out of 100.
On average, ALF's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 25% of polls, ALF rated AKP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 38% of polls, ALF rated CHP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 25% of polls, ALF rated DEM higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 46% of polls, ALF rated İYİ higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 63% of polls, ALF rated AKP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 33% of polls, ALF rated CHP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 29% of polls, ALF rated İYİ lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The electoral threshold for the election in Turkey is 7%.
Turkey's Grand National Assembly (TBMM) comprises 600 deputies elected for a five-year term. Elections are conducted via proportional representation across 87 electoral districts. Since the 2017 constitutional reform, Turkey operates under a presidential system, where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and government. While Parliament retains its legislative role, it is no longer directly involved in government formation, as the President appoints the cabinet independently, without requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence. A key feature is the system of electoral alliances, which allows smaller parties to collectively overcome the electoral threshold.
Turkey implements a nationwide electoral threshold of 7% for parliamentary entry. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the world's highest barriers. A crucial innovation is the rule for electoral alliances: if an alliance (e.g., the 'People's Alliance' or the 'Nation Alliance') collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all constituent parties within it are considered to have met the requirement. However, the actual distribution of seats then occurs proportionally to the votes cast for individual parties within that alliance, using the D'Hondt method.
As Turkey operates under a presidential system, traditional coalition governments requiring parliamentary confirmation no longer exist. Executive power rests solely with the President. Nevertheless, parliamentary alliances (Ittifak) play a pivotal role. The President requires a majority in the Grand National Assembly to pass legislation and the budget. Consequently, parties often form solid pre-election blocs to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports or scrutinizes the President's policies.