ASAL
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2015 respondents
The next General election in Turkey is expected in 2028.
Based on the ASAL projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 38.7% of the parliamentary seats.
In the latest opinion poll for the election in Turkey, conducted by ASAL on November 17, 2024, CHP holds a lead with 32.8%. Trailing behind are AKP: 31.1%, DEM: 8.7%, MHP: 8.1%, Zafer Partisi: 5.2%, İYİ: 4.9%, Yeniden Refah Partisi: 3.5%, Anahtar Parti: 1.4% and TİP: 1.3%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.
ASAL achieved a PolitPro Score of 67 out of 100.
On average, ASAL's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 56% of polls, ASAL rated AKP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 33% of polls, ASAL rated MHP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 39% of polls, ASAL rated CHP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 33% of polls, ASAL rated İYİ lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 23% of polls, ASAL rated Yeniden Refah Partisi lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The electoral threshold for the election in Turkey is 7%.
Turkey's Grand National Assembly (TBMM) comprises 600 deputies elected for a five-year term. Elections are conducted via proportional representation across 87 electoral districts. Since the 2017 constitutional reform, Turkey operates under a presidential system, where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and government. While Parliament retains its legislative role, it is no longer directly involved in government formation, as the President appoints the cabinet independently, without requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence. A key feature is the system of electoral alliances, which allows smaller parties to collectively overcome the electoral threshold.
Turkey implements a nationwide electoral threshold of 7% for parliamentary entry. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the world's highest barriers. A crucial innovation is the rule for electoral alliances: if an alliance (e.g., the 'People's Alliance' or the 'Nation Alliance') collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all constituent parties within it are considered to have met the requirement. However, the actual distribution of seats then occurs proportionally to the votes cast for individual parties within that alliance, using the D'Hondt method.
As Turkey operates under a presidential system, traditional coalition governments requiring parliamentary confirmation no longer exist. Executive power rests solely with the President. Nevertheless, parliamentary alliances (Ittifak) play a pivotal role. The President requires a majority in the Grand National Assembly to pass legislation and the budget. Consequently, parties often form solid pre-election blocs to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports or scrutinizes the President's policies.