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Turkey Kontak: election poll for the Parliamentary election in Turkey from 7 December 2024

Strongest Force
CHP
4.7 points ahead of AKP
Government Majority
No Majority
247 of 600 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2028
estimated
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Voting intention poll for the Parliamentary election in Turkey

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. Kontak: single poll for the Parliamentary election in Turkey, fieldwork ended 7 December 2024.

Changes since the last election on 14 May 2023

CHP
35.6
+10.2
AKP
30.9
-4.6
MHP
8.4
-1.7
İYİ
6.4
-3.4
DEM
6.1
-2.7
ZP
4.7
+2.4
AP
1.5
+1.5
YRP
1.3
-1.5
MP
1.1
+0.2
TİP
1.1
-0.6
SP
0.8
+0.8
BBP
0.6
-0.4
Other
1.5
Institute
Kontak
Client
N/A
Survey Period
02/12/2024 – 07/12/2024
Respondents
2,325
Current government in Turkey falls short of a majority

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 41.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by Kontak?

In a recent voting intention poll for Turkey conducted by Kontak, CHP leads with 35.6%, followed by AKP with 30.9%, MHP with 8.4%, İYİ with 6.4%, DEM with 6.1%, Zafer Partisi with 4.7%, AP with 1.5%, Yeniden Refah Partisi with 1.3%, Millet Partisi with 1.1%, TİP with 1.1%, Saadet with 0.8% and BBP with 0.6%. Other parties achieve 1.5% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

Total seats
600
Majority
301

Parties

  1. CHP 286 47.7%
  2. AKP 247 41.2%
  3. MHP 67 11.2%
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Kontak: how reliable is the projection?

? PolitPro Score

No score calculated yet

Avg. deviation in elections
–

No election comparison yet

Recorded polls
0

Last on 7 December 2024

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

No significant deviations from the Election Trend

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

To Institute

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
301
0 600
Majority 301

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 7%.

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Kontak: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 3 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter the parliament of Turkey: CHP with 286 seats, AKP with 247 seats and MHP with 67 seats.

Turkey's Electoral System

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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