Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Turkey (Optimar, May 10, 2023)

May 1, 2023 - May 10, 2023

0 respondents

Next General election in Turkey: 2028

The next General election in Turkey is expected in 2028.

Incumbent Government in Turkey Without a Majority

Based on the Optimar projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 41.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Optimar?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Turkey, conducted by Optimar on May 10, 2023, AKP holds a lead with 38%. Trailing behind are CHP: 27.7%, MHP: 8.7%, İYİ: 8.4%, DEM: 8.1%, TİP: 2.6%, Millet Partisi: 2.5%, Yeniden Refah Partisi: 1.3%, Zafer Partisi: 1.2% and BBP: 1%. Other parties secure 0.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Turkey
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Optimar Projection?

53

PolitPro Score

Optimar achieved a PolitPro Score of 53 out of 100.

1.7

Election Accuracy

On average, Optimar's figures deviate by 1.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Optimar at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

600
Majority requires 301 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Turkey is 7%.

CHP + İYİ + DEM
Centre-Left
55.2%
AKP + İYİ
Right
50.3%
AKP + DEM
Right
46.8%
CHP + İYİ
Centre-Left
45.5%
AKP + MHP
Right
44.8%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Remres)

According to data from Remres, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Turkey parliament: AKP with 223 representatives, CHP with 194 representatives, İYİ with 79 representatives, DEM with 58 representatives and MHP with 46 representatives.

The Electoral System in Turkey

Turkey's Grand National Assembly (TBMM) comprises 600 deputies elected for a five-year term. Elections are conducted via proportional representation across 87 electoral districts. Since the 2017 constitutional reform, Turkey operates under a presidential system, where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and government. While Parliament retains its legislative role, it is no longer directly involved in government formation, as the President appoints the cabinet independently, without requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence. A key feature is the system of electoral alliances, which allows smaller parties to collectively overcome the electoral threshold.

Electoral Thresholds

Turkey implements a nationwide electoral threshold of 7% for parliamentary entry. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the world's highest barriers. A crucial innovation is the rule for electoral alliances: if an alliance (e.g., the 'People's Alliance' or the 'Nation Alliance') collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all constituent parties within it are considered to have met the requirement. However, the actual distribution of seats then occurs proportionally to the votes cast for individual parties within that alliance, using the D'Hondt method.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Turkey operates under a presidential system, traditional coalition governments requiring parliamentary confirmation no longer exist. Executive power rests solely with the President. Nevertheless, parliamentary alliances (Ittifak) play a pivotal role. The President requires a majority in the Grand National Assembly to pass legislation and the budget. Consequently, parties often form solid pre-election blocs to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports or scrutinizes the President's policies.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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