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Latest Opinion Poll for the Election in Turkey (ORC, July 29, 2026)

July 27, 2026 - July 29, 2026

1920 respondents

Next General Election in Turkey: 2028

The next General Election in Turkey is expected in 2028.

Incumbent Government in Turkey Without a Majority

Based on the ORC projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 40.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from ORC?

Turkey's latest national poll by ORC shows AKP leading with 32.5%, trailed by Yeni Parti: 19.4%, CHP: 11.8%, DEM: 8.5%, MHP: 8.1%, İYİ: 5.6%, Zafer Partisi: 3.8% and Yeniden Refah Partisi: 2%. Other parties secure 8.3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Turkey
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Turkey
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the ORC Projection?

43

PolitPro Score

ORC achieved a PolitPro Score of 43 out of 100.

2.5

Election Accuracy

On average, ORC's figures deviate by 2.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

ORC at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Turkey is 7%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • İYİ
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  • ZP
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  • YRP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
AKP + DEM
Right
51.0%
AKP + MHP
Right
50.5%
AKP
Right
40.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: ORC)

According to data from ORC, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Turkey parliament: AKP with 243 representatives, Yeni Parti with 145 representatives, CHP with 89 representatives, DEM with 63 representatives and MHP with 60 representatives.

The Electoral System in Turkey

Turkey's Grand National Assembly (TBMM) comprises 600 deputies elected for a five-year term. Elections are conducted via proportional representation across 87 electoral districts. Since the 2017 constitutional reform, Turkey operates under a presidential system, where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and government. While Parliament retains its legislative role, it is no longer directly involved in government formation, as the President appoints the cabinet independently, without requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence. A key feature is the system of electoral alliances, which allows smaller parties to collectively overcome the electoral threshold.

Electoral Thresholds

Turkey implements a nationwide electoral threshold of 7% for parliamentary entry. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the world's highest barriers. A crucial innovation is the rule for electoral alliances: if an alliance (e.g., the 'People's Alliance' or the 'Nation Alliance') collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all constituent parties within it are considered to have met the requirement. However, the actual distribution of seats then occurs proportionally to the votes cast for individual parties within that alliance, using the D'Hondt method.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Turkey operates under a presidential system, traditional coalition governments requiring parliamentary confirmation no longer exist. Executive power rests solely with the President. Nevertheless, parliamentary alliances (Ittifak) play a pivotal role. The President requires a majority in the Grand National Assembly to pass legislation and the budget. Consequently, parties often form solid pre-election blocs to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports or scrutinizes the President's policies.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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