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Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Transversal

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

Tüsiar

N/A

May 22, 2025 - May 25, 2025

3177 respondents

Next General election in Turkey: 2028

The next General election in Turkey is expected in 2028.

Incumbent Government in Turkey Without a Majority

Based on the Tüsiar projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 38.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Tüsiar?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Turkey, conducted by Tüsiar on May 25, 2025, CHP holds a lead with 33.7%. Trailing behind are AKP: 30.1%, DEM: 7.9%, MHP: 7.8%, İYİ: 5.6%, Yeniden Refah Partisi: 4.5%, Zafer Partisi: 4.4%, AP: 1.5% and TİP: 1.5%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Turkey

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Turkey

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Tüsiar Projection?

PolitPro Score

Tüsiar achieved a PolitPro Score of 54 out of 100.

Election Accuracy

On average, Tüsiar's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates AKP

In 40% of polls, Tüsiar rated AKP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates MHP

In 20% of polls, Tüsiar rated MHP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Yeniden Refah Partisi

In 40% of polls, Tüsiar rated Yeniden Refah Partisi higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates AKP

In 20% of polls, Tüsiar rated AKP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates CHP

In 80% of polls, Tüsiar rated CHP lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates İYİ

In 80% of polls, Tüsiar rated İYİ lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Zafer Partisi

In 20% of polls, Tüsiar rated Zafer Partisi lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Tüsiar at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

600

Majority requires 301 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Turkey is 7%.

CHP + DEM

Left

52.3%

AKP + DEM

Right

47.8%

AKP + MHP

Right

47.7%

CHP

Left

42.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Tüsiar)

According to data from Tüsiar, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Turkey parliament: CHP with 255 representatives, AKP with 228 representatives, DEM with 59 representatives and MHP with 58 representatives.

The Electoral System in Turkey

Turkey's Grand National Assembly (TBMM) comprises 600 deputies elected for a five-year term. Elections are conducted via proportional representation across 87 electoral districts. Since the 2017 constitutional reform, Turkey operates under a presidential system, where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and government. While Parliament retains its legislative role, it is no longer directly involved in government formation, as the President appoints the cabinet independently, without requiring a parliamentary vote of confidence. A key feature is the system of electoral alliances, which allows smaller parties to collectively overcome the electoral threshold.

Electoral Thresholds

Turkey implements a nationwide electoral threshold of 7% for parliamentary entry. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the world's highest barriers. A crucial innovation is the rule for electoral alliances: if an alliance (e.g., the 'People's Alliance' or the 'Nation Alliance') collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all constituent parties within it are considered to have met the requirement. However, the actual distribution of seats then occurs proportionally to the votes cast for individual parties within that alliance, using the D'Hondt method.

Government Formation and Traditions

As Turkey operates under a presidential system, traditional coalition governments requiring parliamentary confirmation no longer exist. Executive power rests solely with the President. Nevertheless, parliamentary alliances (Ittifak) play a pivotal role. The President requires a majority in the Grand National Assembly to pass legislation and the budget. Consequently, parties often form solid pre-election blocs to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports or scrutinizes the President's policies.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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