PolitPro

Turkey PIAR: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

PIAR: current voting intention polls in Turkey

Last Poll April 6, 2026

View poll
Polling period: April 3, 2026 – April 6, 2026 Respondents: 2,440

Change from poll on March 5, 2026

CHP
35.3
+0.7
AKP
32.4
-0.4
MHP
9.1
+0.2
DEM
8.4
-0.3
5.2
-0.4
ZP
3.8
-0.2
YRP
2.6
-0.2
Other
3.2
+0.6

Previous polls by PIAR

Poll on Respondents CHP AKP MHP DEM İYİ ZP YRP YMP SP TİP DEVA Other View poll
March 5, 2026 2,104 34.6 32.8 8.9 8.7 5.6 4.0 2.8 2.6
February 5, 2026 2,260 35.1 31.7 9.0 8.8 5.6 4.2 2.7 2.9
July 9, 2025 3,160 32.5 30.2 8.6 7.7 4.6 5.1 3.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.8 2.6
June 14, 2025 3,082 32.5 29.7 8.9 7.7 4.0 5.4 4.1 1.7 1.4 1.1 0.8 2.7

PIAR at a glance

50 PolitPro Score Rank 16 of 24 in Turkey
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 53.4
Avg. deviation in elections

No election comparison yet

Recorded polls
24

Last on April 6, 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

PIAR: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
MHP
Often rated higher
4 % 46 %
At trend level
50 %
Polls
24
Zafer Partisi
Often rated higher
0 % 38 %
At trend level
62 %
Polls
13
CHP
Deviates in both directions
38 % 33 %
At trend level
29 %
Polls
24
AKP
Deviates in both directions
50 % 21 %
At trend level
29 %
Polls
24
İYİ
Often rated lower
54 % 8 %
At trend level
38 %
Polls
24
DEM
Often rated lower
78 % 0 %
At trend level
22 %
Polls
9

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

PIAR: How accurate were its past election polls?

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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