Latest Election Polls by TEAM

About TEAM

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by TEAM

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
AKP
Conservative
9
18
73
Anahtar Parti
Right
CHP
Social Democratic
0
45
55
DEM
Centre-Left
60
40
0
İYİ
Right-wing Populist
82
18
0
MHP
Right-wing Populist
27
73
0
TİP
Left-wing
Yeniden Refah Partisi
Far-Right
33
67
0
Zafer Partisi
Right-wing Populist
17
83
0

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of TEAM

1.9

Election Accuracy

On average, TEAM's figures deviate by 1.9 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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