Turkey: Poll by Saros from 05.10.2024

Turkey: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
CHP
34.1
±0.0
AKP
30.4
+0.1
MHP
9.8
+1.1
DEM
9.4
±0.0
YRP
4.5
-0.4
İYİ
4.3
+0.5
ZP
2.4
-0.2
DEVA
1.2
+1.2
TİP
1.2
-1.2
Others
2.7
-1.1
Development since the last election on 14.05.2023
CHP
+8.7
AKP
-5.1
MHP
-0.3
DEM
+0.6
YRP
+1.7
İYİ
-5.5
ZP
+0.1
DEVA
New
TİP
-0.5
Saros – 3217 respondents – 01.10.2024-05.10.2024

Next election: 2028

The next parliamentary election in Turkey is expected to take place in 2028.

Institute often rates AKP higher

In 43% of election polls, Saros rates AKP higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates İYİ lower

In 43% of election polls Saros rates İYİ lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates ZP lower

In 50% of election polls Saros rates ZP lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Turkey - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Turkey from Saros shows the following results: CHP 34.1%, AKP 30.4%, MHP 9.8%, DEM 9.4%, YRP 4.5%, İYİ 4.3%, ZP 2.4%, DEVA 1.2% and TİP 1.2%. If an election were held in Turkey this Sunday, CHP might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.7 growth since the last election. İYİ, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-5.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is currently governing with a Right-wing coalition from AKP and MHP. With 48.0% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Saros. For this purpose, 3217 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 4 days (01.10.2024 - 05.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

600
Majority requires 301 seats
CHP
245
40.8%
DEM
67
11.2%
AKP
218
36.3%
MHP
70
11.7%
CHP + DEM
52.0%
AKP + MHP
48.0%
AKP + DEM
47.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Turkey was conducted by Saros. The survey took place between 01.10.2024 and 05.10.2024 among 3217 eligible voters. After this election poll would get CHP 34.1%, AKP 30.4%, MHP 9.8%, DEM 9.4%, YRP 4.5%, İYİ 4.3%, ZP 2.4%, DEVA 1.2% and TİP 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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