Current election trend for Turkey

CHP
AKP
DEM
MHP
İYİ
ZP
YRP
A
33.1
30.6
8.7
8.1
5.5
4.1
3.2
2.1
TİP
0.6
Other
4.0

Political orientation of parties

What do the symbols mean?
To make parties easier to compare, the symbols indicate a party’s political orientation. These categories provide a quick overview. More detailed information on political positions can be found on the party subpages.
Far left
Left
Centre-left
Centre
Transversal
Unknown
Centre-right
Right
Far right
Liberal
Environment & climate
Regional
Animal rights
Satirical

On the rise: TİP

+0.6 gain in the last 30 days

Trending down: DEM

-0.6 loss in the last 30 days

Next Election: 2028

The next election is expected to take place in 2028.

Government would likely lose its majority

In the current polling trend, the governing parties reach 38.2% of the seats.

Who is leading in the PolitPro election trend?

In the current PolitPro election trend for the Parliamentary election in Turkey, CHP is leading with 33.1%. They are followed by AKP with 30.6%, DEM with 8.7%, MHP with 8.1%, İYİ with 5.5%, ZP with 4.1%, YRP with 3.2%, Anahtar Parti with 2.1% and TİP with 0.6%. Other parties receive 4% of the vote.

When is the next Parliamentary election in Turkey?

The next Parliamentary election in Turkey is expected to take place in 2028. Until then, current election polls serve as the primary barometer for the political climate in Turkey.

Could the current government in Turkey remain in office?

In the current polling trend, the incumbent government parties combined reach only 38.2% of the seats and would no longer hold a majority. This indicates a significant shift in political power: the government would likely not remain in office, as it currently falls short of the necessary parliamentary majority to continue the coalition.

How does the PolitPro Election Trend work?

The PolitPro Election Trend aggregates results from all major polling institutes into a weighted average for the Parliamentary election in Turkey. Since traditional voting intention polls (“How would you vote if the election were held today?”) fluctuate based on methodology and sample size, our trend provides a more stable data foundation. It smooths out short-term statistical outliers and visualizes the true political momentum over time.

Why averages provide more insight than individual polls

In modern electoral research, using multiple data sources reduces the risk of random bias. Individual surveys are always subject to a margin of error, typically between 1.5% and 3%. By combining various institutes in our polling check for Turkey, we increase the validity of the data. We clarify whether a party's gain is a sustainable trend or merely within the margin of error of a single pollster.

Weighting and calculation of the trend value

The calculation of the PolitPro Election Trend follows a transparent mathematical model that accounts for various quality factors. Recent polls are given higher weighting in the average, while older data gradually loses influence. Furthermore, the historical accuracy of institutes in previous elections is factored in to correct for systematic biases. The result is a clean trend line that provides a reliable reflection of developments within the political system of Turkey.

Political system

Presidential republic

The president is both head of state and government.

Electoral autocracy

Elections exist but are neither free nor fair and mainly secure government power.

How is the election held?

Proportional representation according to d’Hondt in 87 constituencies.
19

Democracy score

Turkey reaches 19 out of 100 points in the PolitPro democracy score.

Coalition options

Electoral threshold

7% threshold nationwide.

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 4 parties could enter parliament: CHP with 247 MPs, AKP with 229 MPs, DEM with 64 MPs and MHP with 60 MPs.

The electoral system in Turkey

The Grand National Assembly of Türkiye (TBMM) consists of 600 members elected for a five-year term. Elections are held under a proportional representation system across 87 electoral districts. Following the 2017 constitutional reform, Türkiye transitioned to a presidential system where the President is directly elected by the people and serves as both head of state and head of government. While the Parliament remains the primary legislative body, it no longer votes on a government mandate, as the President appoints the cabinet independently of a parliamentary vote of confidence.

Electoral threshold and entry barriers

Türkiye currently employs a national electoral threshold of 7% for political parties to enter parliament. This was reduced in 2022 from the previous 10%, which was one of the highest in the world. A significant feature is the alliance system: if an electoral alliance (such as the "People's Alliance" or the "Nation Alliance") collectively surpasses the 7% threshold, all member parties are considered to have cleared the hurdle. However, the distribution of seats is calculated based on each individual party's vote share within the alliance using the D'Hondt method.

Government formation and coalition traditions

Under the presidential system, Türkiye no longer has traditional coalition governments that require parliamentary investiture. Executive power is concentrated in the presidency. However, legislative alliances (Ittifak) remain crucial. The President needs a majority in the National Assembly to pass laws and the national budget. Consequently, parties often form strategic blocs before elections to secure a parliamentary majority that either supports the President's agenda or serves as a legislative check on executive power.
CHP + DEM
Left
51.8%
AKP + DEM
Centre
48.8%
AKP + MHP
Centre-right
48.2%

Important political parties in Turkey

Key players in parliamentary competition

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Turkey or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.

Latest opinion polls

Polling institutes in Turkey

Election accuracy
Very accurate
Very inaccurate
What is the PolitPro Score for institutes?
The PolitPro Score for institutes measures the reliability of polling institutes based on their election accuracy and deviation from the election trend. Strong deviations from the trend lead to deductions, as they may indicate bias for or against certain parties. The maximum score is 100.

Election trend development

Latest elections

Government

Democracy in Turkey

Electoral autocracy

Elections exist but are neither free nor fair and mainly secure government power.
19

Democracy score

Turkey reaches 19 out of 100 points in the PolitPro democracy score.
-13

Trend: Strong decline

The democracy score has strongly declined over the past 10 years.
12

Democracy score: Rule of law

Assesses how well separation of powers, independent courts, and civil rights are protected in Turkey.
29

Democracy score: Elections

Assesses whether elections in Turkey are free, fair, and genuinely determine government.
10

Democracy score: Decision-making

Assesses whether political decisions in Turkey are based on arguments and public debate.
21

Democracy score: Equality

Assesses whether all citizens in Turkey can participate equally regardless of background.
17

Democracy score: Participation

Shows how strongly citizens in Turkey influence politics through parties, unions, or groups.
What is the PolitPro Democracy Score?
The PolitPro Democracy Score evaluates different aspects of democracy based on scientific data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. The international research project is led by the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) and the University of Notre Dame (USA). More than 3,500 experts assess the democratic quality of their countries using standardized criteria. PolitPro combines and extends this data to present it in a clear and comparable way. The score ranges from 0 to 100 points.

Political system

Presidential republic

The president is both head of state and government.

How is the election held?

Proportional representation according to d’Hondt in 87 constituencies.

After the election

Following the election, the National Assembly convenes for the swearing-in of its members. Traditionally, the oldest member serves as acting Speaker until a permanent one is elected. Since the cabinet is appointed directly by the President, the post-election period does not involve traditional coalition negotiations to form a government. Instead, the Parliament focuses on establishing committees and legislative priorities. A key post-election task is the review and approval of the national budget presented by the presidency.

Characteristics of the electorate

Voting rights are granted to all Turkish citizens aged 18 and older. Türkiye is known for exceptionally high voter turnout, often exceeding 85%, reflecting deep civic engagement. A massive factor in Turkish elections is the diaspora; millions of citizens living abroad (particularly in Germany, France, and the Netherlands) are eligible to vote at consulates or border crossings. The electorate is often divided along ideological, religious, and regional lines, with major metropolitan areas like Istanbul and Ankara frequently exhibiting different voting trends compared to rural Anatolia.

Member of NATO

Military defense alliance between Europe and North America.

Member of the G20

Forum of the world’s largest economies and emerging markets.

Member of the OSCE

Organization for peace, security, and human rights in Europe.

Member of the OECD

Group of economically developed countries cooperating on economic policy.

Sources of data and information

PolitPro

PolitPro brings together scientific data and current poll results to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and complement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This allows us to make complex political contexts accessible and easy to understand. Supported by AI.

Found a mistake?

Political data changes every day. If you notice an error, feel free to send us an email. A short source reference helps us review the information.

V-Dem – Varieties of Democracy

Research data from the University of Gothenburg focused on democracy. Independent political experts from around the world assess political systems using scientific criteria.
More
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V-Party – Parties of the World Dataset

A research project from the University of Gothenburg. International political scientists evaluate the core ideological positions of political parties worldwide using standardized criteria.
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ParlGov – Parliamentary Democracy Data

Long-running research data from the University of Bremen. It documents political parties and governments and enables systematic political comparison.
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Döring, Holger and Philip Manow. 2024. Parliaments and governments database (ParlGov): Information on parties, elections and cabinets in established democracies.

CHES – Chapel Hill Expert Survey

Europe’s most important expert survey on party positions. More than 400 political scientists from different countries assess party positions based on scientific criteria.
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Rovny, Jan, Ryan Bakker, Liesbet Hooghe, Seth Jolly, Gary Marks, Jonathan Polk, Marco Steenbergen, and Milada Vachudova. “25 Years of Political Party Positions in Europe: The Chapel Hill Expert Survey, 1999-2024,”