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Latest Opinion Poll for the Tyrol Election (Gallup, December 28, 2021)

December 28, 2021

500 respondents

Next General Election in Tyrol: 2027

The next General Election in Tyrol is expected in 2027.

Tyrol's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Gallup projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 52.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Gallup?

According to the latest national poll in Tyrol by Gallup, ÖVP leads with 32%, trailed by SPÖ: 17%, FPÖ: 15%, GRÜNE: 12%, NEOS: 9%, MFG: 7% and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser: 5%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Tyrol
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Insights, comparisons, and data on Tyrol's political parties
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Gallup Projection?

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Gallup achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Gallup's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Gallup at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Tyrol State Election is 5%.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Gallup)

According to Gallup, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Tyrol parliament: ÖVP with 13 representatives, SPÖ with 6 representatives, FPÖ with 6 representatives, GRÜNE with 4 representatives, NEOS with 3 representatives, MFG with 2 representatives and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Tyrol

Tyrol's Landtag comprises 36 members. A distinctive feature is its robust administrative division into eight electoral districts (Bezirke). Tyrol's electoral regulations permit an intensive preferential voting system, particularly utilized in the valleys to elevate local candidates and thus bolster regional interests.

Electoral Thresholds

Tyrol enforces a 5% electoral threshold. Alternatively, a path to the Landtag can be secured by winning a basic mandate within a district. Given Tyrol's numerous small electoral districts, securing a basic mandate is a prestigious achievement, typically only managed by established major parties or exceptionally strong regional lists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Tyrol forms flexible coalition governments. Negotiations often proceed under the banner of 'Tyrolean Unity,' with stability serving as a core promise. As tourism and agriculture are foundational pillars, the coalition's composition typically reflects the allocation of these key portfolios.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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