Latest Opinion Poll for the Tyrol Election (IMAD, September 27, 2020)

September 14, 2020 - September 27, 2020

501 respondents

Next General election in Tyrol: 2027

The next General election in Tyrol is expected in 2027.

Tyrol's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the IMAD projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IMAD?

In the latest opinion poll for the Tyrolean election, conducted by IMAD on September 27, 2020, ÖVP leads with 43%. Trailing are FPÖ: 14.3%, GRÜNE: 13.3%, SPÖ: 11.7%, NEOS: 9.1% and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser: 8.6%. Other parties secure 0% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Tyrol
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IMAD Projection?

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PolitPro Score

IMAD achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, IMAD's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IMAD at a Glance
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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

36
Majority requires 19 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Tyrol State Election is 5%.

ÖVP + GRÜNE
Centre-Right
58.3%
ÖVP + FPÖ
Right
58.3%
ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
55.6%
ÖVP + Liste Fritz Dinkhauser
Centre-Right
52.8%
ÖVP + NEOS
Centre-Right
52.8%
ÖVP
Right
44.4%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IMAD)

According to IMAD, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Tyrol parliament: ÖVP with 16 representatives, FPÖ with 5 representatives, GRÜNE with 5 representatives, SPÖ with 4 representatives, NEOS with 3 representatives and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Tyrol

Tyrol's Landtag comprises 36 members. A distinctive feature is its robust administrative division into eight electoral districts (Bezirke). Tyrol's electoral regulations permit an intensive preferential voting system, particularly utilized in the valleys to elevate local candidates and thus bolster regional interests.

Electoral Thresholds

Tyrol enforces a 5% electoral threshold. Alternatively, a path to the Landtag can be secured by winning a basic mandate within a district. Given Tyrol's numerous small electoral districts, securing a basic mandate is a prestigious achievement, typically only managed by established major parties or exceptionally strong regional lists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Tyrol forms flexible coalition governments. Negotiations often proceed under the banner of 'Tyrolean Unity,' with stability serving as a core promise. As tourism and agriculture are foundational pillars, the coalition's composition typically reflects the allocation of these key portfolios.

Coalition Calculator
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Data Sources and Methodology

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