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Latest Opinion Poll for the Tyrol Election (IMAD, December 17, 2020)

December 14, 2020 - December 17, 2020

500 respondents

Next General Election in Tyrol: 2027

The next General Election in Tyrol is expected in 2027.

Tyrol's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the IMAD projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 55.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IMAD?

According to the latest national poll in Tyrol by IMAD, ÖVP leads with 42.7%, trailed by FPÖ: 14.9%, GRÜNE: 13.1%, SPÖ: 11.2%, NEOS: 9.4% and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser: 8.3%. Other parties secure 0.4% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Tyrol
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
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What do the parties stand for?
Insights, comparisons, and data on Tyrol's political parties
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IMAD Projection?

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PolitPro Score

IMAD achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, IMAD's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IMAD at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Tyrol State Election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • GRÜNE
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • GRÜNE
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
  • FRITZ
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • GRÜNE
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%
  • NEOS
    ??%
  • FRITZ
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IMAD)

According to IMAD, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Tyrol parliament: ÖVP with 16 representatives, FPÖ with 5 representatives, GRÜNE with 5 representatives, SPÖ with 4 representatives, NEOS with 3 representatives and Liste Fritz Dinkhauser with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Tyrol

Tyrol's Landtag comprises 36 members. A distinctive feature is its robust administrative division into eight electoral districts (Bezirke). Tyrol's electoral regulations permit an intensive preferential voting system, particularly utilized in the valleys to elevate local candidates and thus bolster regional interests.

Electoral Thresholds

Tyrol enforces a 5% electoral threshold. Alternatively, a path to the Landtag can be secured by winning a basic mandate within a district. Given Tyrol's numerous small electoral districts, securing a basic mandate is a prestigious achievement, typically only managed by established major parties or exceptionally strong regional lists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Tyrol forms flexible coalition governments. Negotiations often proceed under the banner of 'Tyrolean Unity,' with stability serving as a core promise. As tourism and agriculture are foundational pillars, the coalition's composition typically reflects the allocation of these key portfolios.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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