Latest Opinion Poll for the Tyrol Election (Research Affairs, December 14, 2020)

December 2, 2020 - December 14, 2020

600 respondents

Next General election in Tyrol: 2027

The next General election in Tyrol is expected in 2027.

Tyrol's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Research Affairs projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 63.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Current Election Trend: Tyrol
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Insights, comparisons, and data on Tyrol's political parties

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Research Affairs Projection?

77

PolitPro Score

Research Affairs achieved a PolitPro Score of 77 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Research Affairs's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Research Affairs at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

36
Majority requires 19 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Tyrol State Election is 5%.

ÖVP + SPÖ
Centre-Right
63.9%
ÖVP + GRÜNE
Centre-Right
61.1%
ÖVP + FPÖ
Right
61.1%
ÖVP + NEOS
Centre-Right
55.6%
ÖVP
Right
47.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Research Affairs)

According to :institute, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Tyrol parliament: ÖVP with 17 representatives, SPÖ with 6 representatives, FPÖ with 5 representatives, GRÜNE with 5 representatives and NEOS with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Tyrol

Tyrol's Landtag comprises 36 members. A distinctive feature is its robust administrative division into eight electoral districts (Bezirke). Tyrol's electoral regulations permit an intensive preferential voting system, particularly utilized in the valleys to elevate local candidates and thus bolster regional interests.

Electoral Thresholds

Tyrol enforces a 5% electoral threshold. Alternatively, a path to the Landtag can be secured by winning a basic mandate within a district. Given Tyrol's numerous small electoral districts, securing a basic mandate is a prestigious achievement, typically only managed by established major parties or exceptionally strong regional lists.

Government Formation and Traditions

Tyrol forms flexible coalition governments. Negotiations often proceed under the banner of 'Tyrolean Unity,' with stability serving as a core promise. As tourism and agriculture are foundational pillars, the coalition's composition typically reflects the allocation of these key portfolios.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.