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Latest Opinion Poll for the Ukraine Election (KIIS, February 9, 2025)

February 4, 2025 - February 9, 2025

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Ukraine: 2025

The next General Election in Ukraine is expected in 2025.

Incumbent Government in Ukraine Lacks Majority

Based on the KIIS projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 14.6% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from KIIS?

According to the latest national poll in Ukraine conducted by KIIS, Valerii Zaluzhnyi commands 36.2% support, trailed by Denys Prokopenko: 17.1%, SN: 12.4%, YeS: 7.9%, RozPol: 6.1%, Prytula Bloc: 5.1%, Kyrylo Budanov: 4.5%, Batkivshchyna: 3.7%, Oleksiy Arestovych: 2.3%, OPZZh: 2.2% and Svoboda: 2%. Other parties secure 0.5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Ukraine
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Ukraine
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the KIIS Projection?

71

PolitPro Score

KIIS achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

0.8

Election Accuracy

On average, KIIS's figures deviate by 0.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

KIIS at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Ukraine is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: KIIS)

According to KIIS data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Ukraine's parliament: Valerii Zaluzhnyi with 182 representatives, Denys Prokopenko with 86 representatives, SN with 62 representatives, YeS with 39 representatives, RozPol with 30 representatives and Prytula Bloc with 25 representatives.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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