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Latest Opinion Poll for the Ukraine Election (Socis, February 9, 2025)

February 3, 2025 - February 9, 2025

2000 respondents

Next General Election in Ukraine: 2025

The next General Election in Ukraine is expected in 2025.

Incumbent Government in Ukraine Lacks Majority

Based on the Socis projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 23.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Socis?

According to the latest national poll in Ukraine conducted by Socis, Valerii Zaluzhnyi commands 27.1% support, trailed by SN: 10.2%, YeS: 6.3%, Natskorpus: 4.4%, RozPol: 4.1%, Kyrylo Budanov: 3.8%, Batkivshchyna: 3.1%, Prytula Bloc: 3% and UDAR: 0.9%. Other parties secure 37.1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Ukraine
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Ukraine
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Socis Projection?

58

PolitPro Score

Socis achieved a PolitPro Score of 58 out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, Socis's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Socis at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

424
Majority requires 213 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Ukraine is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • Buda.
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • Nats.
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  • RozPol
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  • Batk.
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  • Pryt
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  • UDAR
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Socis)

According to Socis data, 3 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Ukraine's parliament: Valerii Zaluzhnyi with 264 representatives, SN with 99 representatives and YeS with 61 representatives.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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