Current election polls and polling data from BMG Research

Latest voting intention survey by BMG Research for United Kingdom

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by BMG Research, the parties received the following results: Labour 29%, Tories 27%, Reform UK 20%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Green Party 7%, Scottish National Party 3% and Plaid Cymru 0%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1531 people during the period 27.11.2024 - 27.11.2024.
1531 participants
26.11.2024 - 27.11.2024
BMG Research
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Lab
29.0
-1.0
Con
27.0
+2.0
Reform
20.0
±0.0
LDEM
12.0
-1.0
Greens
7.0
±0.0
SNP
3.0
±0.0
Others
2.0
±0.0

Seats in parliament

650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
193
29.7%
Greens
46
7.1%
SNP
20
3.1%
LDEM
79
12.2%
Con
180
27.7%
Reform
132
20.3%
Tories + Reform UK + Liberal Democrats
60.2%
Labour + Tories
57.4%
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
52.0%
Tories + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
50.0%

71

PolitPro Score

BMG Research achieves a score of 71/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
Con
59
26
15
Greens
0
65
35
LDEM
0
41
59
Lab
21
62
18
PC
0
100
0
Reform
29
53
18
SNP
13
88
0

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

1.5

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in BMG Research pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.5 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
1.52
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 10/12

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.