Latest voting intention survey by Deltapoll for United Kingdom
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by Deltapoll, the parties received the following results: Labour 29%, Tories 27%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Green Party 8%, Scottish National Party 4% and Plaid Cymru 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1749 people during the period 18.11.2024 - 18.11.2024.
1749 participants
18.11.2024 - 18.11.2024
Deltapoll
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Seats in parliament
650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
191
29.4%
Greens
52
8%
SNP
26
4%
PC
6
0.9%
LDEM
78
12%
Con
178
27.4%
Reform
119
18.3%
Tories + Reform UK + Liberal Democrats
Labour + Tories
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
Tories + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Plaid Cymru
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Labour higher
In 46% of election polls, Deltapoll rates Labour higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reform UK lower
In 52% of election polls Deltapoll rates Reform UK lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Tories higher
In 50% of election polls, Deltapoll rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Deltapoll pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.4 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.38
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2024 | 7/7 |
|
1.35
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 | 9/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.