Latest voting intention survey by Ipsos MORI for United Kingdom
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by Ipsos MORI, the parties received the following results: Labour 47%, Tories 26%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green Party 8%, Scottish National Party 4%, Reform UK 2%, UKIP 1% and Plaid Cymru 0%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1001 people during the period 12.10.2022 - 12.10.2022. The survey was commissioned by The Evening Standard.
1001 participants
12.10.2022 - 12.10.2022
Ipsos MORI
The Evening Standard
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Green Party higher
In 41% of election polls, Ipsos MORI rates Green Party higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Liberal Democrats higher
In 39% of election polls, Ipsos MORI rates Liberal Democrats higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reform UK lower
In 70% of election polls Ipsos MORI rates Reform UK lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Tories higher
In 32% of election polls, Ipsos MORI rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ipsos MORI pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.5 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.5
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 | 1/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.