Latest voting intention survey by Opinium for United Kingdom
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by Opinium, the parties received the following results: Reform UK 27%, Labour 26%, Tories 19%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Green Party 9%, Scottish National Party 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2050 people during the period 02.05.2025 - 02.05.2025. The survey was commissioned by The Observer.
2050 participants
30.04.2025 - 02.05.2025
Opinium
The Observer
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Seats in parliament
650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
173
26.6%
Greens
59
9.1%
SNP
20
3.1%
PC
6
0.9%
LDEM
86
13.2%
Con
126
19.4%
Reform
180
27.7%
Reform UK + Tories + Liberal Democrats
Labour + Tories + Liberal Democrats
Labour + Tories + Green Party
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
Labour + Tories + Scottish National Party + Plaid Cymru
Reform UK + Liberal Democrats + Green Party
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Plaid Cymru
Labour + Tories + Scottish National Party
74
PolitPro Score
Opinium achieves a score of 74/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
1.6
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Opinium pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2024 | 3/9 |
|
0.7
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 | 4/12 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.