Latest voting intention survey by Opinium for United Kingdom
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by Opinium, the parties received the following results: Labour 29%, Tories 25%, Reform UK 21%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green Party 9%, Scottish National Party 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2050 people during the period 29.11.2024 - 29.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by The Observer.
2050 participants
27.11.2024 - 29.11.2024
Opinium
The Observer
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Seats in parliament
650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
193
29.7%
Greens
59
9.1%
SNP
20
3.1%
PC
6
0.9%
LDEM
66
10.2%
Con
166
25.5%
Reform
140
21.5%
Tories + Reform UK + Liberal Democrats
Labour + Tories
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Plaid Cymru
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Labour lower
In 46% of election polls Opinium rates Labour lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Liberal Democrats lower
In 43% of election polls Opinium rates Liberal Democrats lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reform UK higher
In 31% of election polls, Opinium rates Reform UK higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Tories higher
In 36% of election polls, Opinium rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Opinium pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.4
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2024 | 1/7 |
|
0.7
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 | 4/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.