Latest polls from Opinium
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Labour lower
In 38% of election polls Opinium rates Labour lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Liberal Democrats lower
In 49% of election polls Opinium rates Liberal Democrats lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reform UK lower
In 31% of election polls Opinium rates Reform UK lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Tories higher
In 33% of election polls, Opinium rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Opinium pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.7 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Opinium's average ranking is 4.0.
0x the most accurate prediction
2
0x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
4
1x on rank 4