Latest voting intention survey by YouGov for United Kingdom
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in United Kingdom conducted by YouGov, the parties received the following results: Labour 37%, Tories 19%, Reform UK 18%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Green Party 6% and Scottish National Party 3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 2047 people during the period 20.06.2024 - 20.06.2024.
2047 participants
19.06.2024 - 20.06.2024
YouGov
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Seats in parliament
650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
251
38.6%
Greens
40
6.2%
SNP
20
3.1%
LDEM
87
13.4%
Con
129
19.8%
Reform
123
18.9%
Labour + Tories
Tories + Reform UK + Liberal Democrats
Labour + Liberal Democrats
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in YouGov pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.7 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.72
|
Parliamentary Election in Großbritannien 2019 | 5/12 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.