United Kingdom: Reform UK Leads Poll in Great Britain (Freshwater Strategy Poll from 11.01.2026)

01/13/2026 - The Reform UK party has achieved 33 percent in the latest poll, significantly ahead of the Tories and Labour, who both stand at 19 percent.

Latest Opinion Poll for the UK Election (Freshwater Strategy, January 11, 2026)

Reform

Con

Lab

Greens

LDEM

Others

Change since the July 5, 2024 election

Political Alignment of Parties

What do the symbols mean?

These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Big-tent party

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

Freshwater Strategy

N/A

January 9, 2026 - January 11, 2026

1250 respondents

Next General Election in United Kingdom: 2029

The next General Election in United Kingdom is expected in 2029.

UK Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Freshwater Strategy projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 20.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Freshwater Strategy?

According to the latest national poll in United Kingdom by Freshwater Strategy, Reform UK leads with 33%. They are followed by Tories: 19%, Labour: 19%, Green Party: 12% and Liberal Democrats: 11%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

United Kingdom: Current Election Trends

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in United Kingdom

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Freshwater Strategy Projection?

PolitPro Score

Freshwater Strategy achieved a PolitPro Score of 57 out of 100.

Election Accuracy

On average, Freshwater Strategy's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates Liberal Democrats

In 45% of polls, Freshwater Strategy rated Liberal Democrats higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Reform UK

In 82% of polls, Freshwater Strategy rated Reform UK higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Tories

In 55% of polls, Freshwater Strategy rated Tories higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Green Party

In 73% of polls, Freshwater Strategy rated Green Party lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Labour

In 27% of polls, Freshwater Strategy rated Labour lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Freshwater Strategy at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

In the United Kingdom, seats are allocated via the First Past the Post (FPTP) system. Since polls only gauge nationwide party preferences, inferring precise constituency results is impossible. Thus, a reliable seat distribution remains elusive.

Data Sources and Methodology

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