United Kingdom: Reform UK leads the poll with 31 percent (Opinium Poll from 09.01.2026)

01/12/2026 - The latest poll shows Reform UK clearly in the lead at 31 percent, while Labour and the Tories follow with 20 and 18 percent.

Latest Opinion Poll for the UK Election (Opinium, January 9, 2026)

Reform

31.0

±0

Lab

20.0

±0

Con

18.0

±0

Greens

13.0

+1.0

LDEM

12.0

-1.0

SNP

2.0

-1.0

1.0

±0

Others

3.0

+1.0

Change since the July 5, 2024 election

Political Alignment of Parties

What do the symbols mean?

These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Transversal

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

Opinium

N/A

January 7, 2026 - January 9, 2026

2050 respondents

Next General election in United Kingdom: 2029

The next General election in United Kingdom is expected in 2029.

UK Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Opinium projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 20.8% of the parliamentary seats.

United Kingdom: Current Election Trends

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in United Kingdom

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Opinium Projection?

PolitPro Score

Opinium achieved a PolitPro Score of 72 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Opinium's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates Labour

In 33% of polls, Opinium rated Labour higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Reform UK

In 42% of polls, Opinium rated Reform UK higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Scottish National Party

In 20% of polls, Opinium rated Scottish National Party higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Tories

In 32% of polls, Opinium rated Tories higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Labour

In 34% of polls, Opinium rated Labour lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Liberal Democrats

In 48% of polls, Opinium rated Liberal Democrats lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Reform UK

In 20% of polls, Opinium rated Reform UK lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Tories

In 28% of polls, Opinium rated Tories lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Opinium at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

In the United Kingdom, seats are allocated via the First Past the Post (FPTP) system. Since polls only gauge nationwide party preferences, inferring precise constituency results is impossible. Thus, a reliable seat distribution remains elusive.

Data Sources and Methodology

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