BMG Research achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.
On average, BMG Research's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 32% of polls, BMG Research rated Green Party higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 32% of polls, BMG Research rated Labour higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 37% of polls, BMG Research rated Liberal Democrats higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 26% of polls, BMG Research rated Reform UK higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 26% of polls, BMG Research rated Reform UK lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 41% of polls, BMG Research rated Tories lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.
On average, BMG Research's figures deviate by 1.8 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
With an average deviation of 1.77 percentage points per party, BMG Research ranks 12 out of 12.
Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).