United Kingdom: Poll by Opinium from 18.10.2024

United Kingdom: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
Lab
31.0
±0.0
Con
24.0
±0.0
Reform
20.0
±0.0
LDEM
12.0
+1.0
Greens
8.0
±0.0
SNP
2.0
-1.0
PC
1.0
+1.0
Others
2.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Lab
-2.7
Con
+0.3
Reform
+5.7
LDEM
-0.2
Greens
+1.6
SNP
-0.5
PC
+0.3
Opinium – 1565 respondents – 16.10.2024-18.10.2024

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in United Kingdom is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Labour lower

In 42% of election polls Opinium rates Labour lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Liberal Democrats lower

In 44% of election polls Opinium rates Liberal Democrats lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reform UK higher

In 34% of election polls, Opinium rates Reform UK higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Tories higher

In 33% of election polls, Opinium rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

United Kingdom - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in United Kingdom from Opinium shows the following results: Labour 31%, Tories 24%, Reform UK 20%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Green Party 8%, Scottish National Party 2% and Plaid Cymru 1%. If an election were held in United Kingdom this Sunday, Reform UK might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.7 growth since the last election. Labour, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Keir Starmer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Labour. With 31.7% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinium. For this purpose, 1565 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (16.10.2024 - 18.10.2024).

Coalition possibilities

650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
206
31.7%
Greens
53
8.2%
SNP
13
2%
PC
6
0.9%
LDEM
79
12.2%
Con
160
24.6%
Reform
133
20.5%
Tories + Reform UK + Liberal Democrats
57.2%
Labour + Tories
56.3%
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party
52.0%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in United Kingdom was conducted by Opinium. The survey took place between 16.10.2024 and 18.10.2024 among 1565 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Labour 31%, Tories 24%, Reform UK 20%, Liberal Democrats 12%, Green Party 8%, Scottish National Party 2% and Plaid Cymru 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!