United Kingdom: Poll by Opinium from 02.05.2025

United Kingdom: Polling data

Reform
27.0
+1.0
Lab
26.0
±0.0
Con
19.0
-2.0
LDEM
13.0
+2.0
Greens
9.0
±0.0
SNP
3.0
±0.0
PC
1.0
±0.0
Others
2.0
-1.0
Development since the last election on 05.07.2024
Reform
+12.7
Lab
-7.7
Con
-4.7
LDEM
+0.8
Greens
+2.6
SNP
+0.5
PC
+0.3
Opinium – 2050 respondents – 30.04.2025-02.05.2025

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in United Kingdom is expected to take place in 2029.

Institute often rates Labour lower

In 43% of election polls Opinium rates Labour lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Liberal Democrats lower

In 44% of election polls Opinium rates Liberal Democrats lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reform UK higher

In 33% of election polls, Opinium rates Reform UK higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Tories higher

In 34% of election polls, Opinium rates Tories higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

United Kingdom - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in United Kingdom from Opinium shows the following results: Reform UK 27%, Labour 26%, Tories 19%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Green Party 9%, Scottish National Party 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%. If an election were held in United Kingdom this Sunday, Reform UK might gain the most in voter favorability with +12.7 growth since the last election. Labour, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.7) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Keir Starmer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Labour. With 26.6% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Opinium. For this purpose, 2050 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (30.04.2025 - 02.05.2025).

Coalition possibilities

650
Majority requires 326 seats
Lab
173
26.6%
Greens
59
9.1%
SNP
20
3.1%
PC
6
0.9%
LDEM
86
13.2%
Con
126
19.4%
Reform
180
27.7%
Reform UK + Tories + Liberal Democrats
60.3%
Labour + Tories + Liberal Democrats
59.2%
Labour + Tories + Green Party
55.1%
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Scottish National Party
52.0%
Labour + Tories + Scottish National Party + Plaid Cymru
50.0%
Reform UK + Liberal Democrats + Green Party
50.0%
Labour + Liberal Democrats + Green Party + Plaid Cymru
49.8%
Labour + Tories + Scottish National Party
49.1%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in United Kingdom was conducted by Opinium. The survey took place between 30.04.2025 and 02.05.2025 among 2050 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reform UK 27%, Labour 26%, Tories 19%, Liberal Democrats 13%, Green Party 9%, Scottish National Party 3% and Plaid Cymru 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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