PolitPro

Upper Austria Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Government Majority
Stable Majority
34 of 56 seats in the Election Trend
Strongest Force
FPÖ
10.0 points ahead of ÖVP
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Current Election Trend: Upper Austria's Parliamentary Election

Weighted average of all institutes. The bars show the current standing, the chips the change since the last election. Upper Austria Parliamentary Election Trend (as of August 19, 2026)

FPÖ
35.0
+15.2
ÖVP
25.0
-12.6
SPÖ
19.0
+0.4
GRÜNE
14.0
+1.7
NEOS
6.0
+1.8
MFG
1.0
-5.2
Other
< 0.1
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Would Upper Austria's Incumbent Government Retain a Majority Today?

The alliance of ÖVP and FPÖ would win 60.7% of the seats in the Election Trend, holding on to a stable majority.

Who Leads the PolitPro Election Trend in Upper Austria?

Leading the current PolitPro Election Trend for Upper Austria's Parliamentary election is FPÖ with 35%, followed by ÖVP with 25%, SPÖ with 19%, GRÜNE with 14%, NEOS with 6% and MFG with 1%. Other parties achieve 0% of the votes.

How we calculate the PolitPro Election Trend

The PolitPro Election Trend transcends a mere snapshot. We aggregate data from all relevant polling institutes, forming a weighted average for Upper Austria's Parliamentary election. While classic voting intention polls (“Which party would you vote for if the election were held next Sunday?”) fluctuate due to methodology, our Election Trend offers a statistically robust foundation. It smooths short-term outliers, revealing genuine political dynamics over time.

By combining multiple data sources, we minimize the risk of random effects. Every survey carries a statistical margin of error (typically between 1.5% and 3%). Our Upper Austria poll check precisely indicates whether a party's gain signifies a lasting development or merely falls within a single institute's statistical uncertainty.

The calculation adheres to a transparent mathematical model: recent polls carry greater weight than older data. Each institute's historical forecasting accuracy also informs the calculation, offsetting methodological bias. The result is a valid trend line, precisely mapping Upper Austria's party system.

Current government

Head of Government

Thomas Stelzer

Coalition Calculator: Possible Majorities After Upper Austria's Parliamentary Election

0
29
0 56
Majority 29

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 4%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. FPÖ
    <1%
  2. ÖVP
    0%
  3. SPÖ
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. FPÖ
    99%
  2. ÖVP
    <1%
  3. SPÖ
    <1%
  4. GRÜNE
    <1%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. NEOS
    93%
  2. MFG
    <1%
Unlock analysis

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Projected composition of parliament

Based on the Election Trend, 5 parties are projected to enter Upper Austria's parliament: FPÖ with 20 seats, ÖVP with 14 seats, SPÖ with 11 seats, GRÜNE with 8 seats and NEOS with 3 seats.

The Electoral System in Upper Austria

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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How Polling Numbers Have Shifted in Upper Austria

API Research Data

Latest Election Polls from Polling Institutes

Score Institute Date FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ GRÜNE NEOS MFG Link
80 Spectra November 6, 2025 35.0 25.0 19.0 14.0 6.0 1.0
How reliable are the institutes?

Archive: Every Election Poll in Upper Austria

Each year as a table: The archive's year pages are part of PolitPro+.

Results of Upper Austria's Most Recent Elections

2021 Parliamentary election
2015 Parliamentary election
2009 Parliamentary election
Parliamentary election 2021: ÖVP 37.6%, FPÖ 19.8%, SPÖ 18.6%, GRÜNE 12.3%, MFG 6.2%, NEOS 4.2%. Parliamentary election 2015: ÖVP 36.4%, FPÖ 30.4%, SPÖ 18.4%, GRÜNE 10.3%, NEOS 3.5%. Parliamentary election 2009: ÖVP 46.8%, FPÖ 15.3%, SPÖ 24.9%, GRÜNE 9.2%

Key Political Parties in Upper Austria

Political Alignment
Conservative
Social
Market
Progressive
FPÖ Right-Populist ÖVP Christian Democratic SPÖ Social Democratic GRÜNE Green NEOS Liberal MFG Right Show all parties

More from PolitPro

API & Data Access Access our data programmatically – for editorial teams, think tanks, and teams that need Election Trends directly in their workflow. Research Data Use our prepared datasets for research and teaching. App & Community Discuss current polls in a growing, respectful political community.

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PolitPro combines scientific data and current poll values to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and supplement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This way, we make complex political contexts understandable and accessible to all. Supported by AI.

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