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Latest Opinion Poll for the Vienna Election (IFDD, June 27, 2024)

June 24, 2024 - June 27, 2024

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Vienna: 2030

The next General Election in Vienna is expected in 2030.

Vienna's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the IFDD projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 47.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IFDD?

According to the latest national poll in Vienna by IFDD, SPÖ leads with 36%. They are followed by FPÖ: 19%, GRÜNE: 12%, ÖVP: 12%, NEOS: 8%, Bierpartei: 7% and KPÖ: 4%. Other parties secure 2% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Vienna
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on Vienna's political parties
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IFDD Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

IFDD achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, IFDD's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IFDD at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Vienna is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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  • FPÖ
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  • GRÜNE
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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  • FPÖ
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  • NEOS
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
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  • KPÖ
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IFDD)

According to IFDD data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Vienna parliament: SPÖ with 39 representatives, FPÖ with 20 representatives, GRÜNE with 13 representatives, ÖVP with 13 representatives, NEOS with 8 representatives and Bierpartei with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Vienna

Vienna holds a dual role as both a city and a federal state. Its City Council, which also functions as the State Parliament, comprises 100 members. The electoral system underwent reform in 2023, aiming to bolster proportionality. Despite this, a 'winner's mandate' system remains, designed to facilitate governance for the strongest party.

Electoral Thresholds

Vienna, as the federal capital, enforces a 5% electoral threshold. Given the Parliament's 100-seat size, this threshold proves highly effective in practice. The city is divided into 18 electoral districts where preferential votes can be cast, a feature particularly utilized in its densely populated urban areas.

Government Formation and Traditions

Vienna is governed by a coalition that commands a majority in the City Government (Stadtsenat), which also serves as the State Government. A unique Viennese feature involves 'non-executive city councillors'. Opposition parties, once they reach a certain size, also appoint councillors who, while not heading departments, exercise crucial oversight functions.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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