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Latest Opinion Poll for Vorarlberg (SORA, March 24, 2019)

March 24, 2019

841 respondents

Next General Election in Vorarlberg: 2029

The next General Election in Vorarlberg is expected in 2029.

Vorarlberg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the SORA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 69.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from SORA?

According to the latest national poll in Vorarlberg by SORA, ÖVP leads with 45%. They are followed by FPÖ: 21%, GRÜNE: 13%, NEOS: 11% and SPÖ: 9%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Vorarlberg
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on Vorarlberg's political parties.
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the SORA Projection?

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PolitPro Score

SORA achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

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Election Accuracy

On average, SORA's figures deviate by percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

SORA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Vorarlberg Landtag election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • GRÜNE
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • ÖVP
    ??%
  • FPÖ
    ??%
  • GRÜNE
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • NEOS
    ??%
  • SPÖ
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: SORA)

According to SORA data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Vorarlberg parliament: ÖVP with 17 representatives, FPÖ with 8 representatives, GRÜNE with 4 representatives, NEOS with 4 representatives and SPÖ with 3 representatives.

Vorarlberg's Electoral System

Vorarlberg elects 36 representatives. The system employs district-based elections (Bludenz, Bregenz, Dornbirn, Feldkirch), where mandates are primarily allocated within these districts. Vorarlberg is renowned for its unique model, granting citizens significant influence through three preferential votes (with a maximum of two for any single candidate).

Electoral Thresholds

The electoral threshold is set at 5% statewide or securing a basic mandate within a district. Given the strong emphasis on individual candidates and the state's manageable size, this threshold often poses the greatest challenge for new, locally well-connected groups in Landtag elections.

Government Formation and Traditions

Vorarlberg operates under a system of free coalition formation. Notably, its political culture emphasizes 'Miteinander' (cooperation): even when a single party forms a government, other parties are frequently integrated into decision-making processes. Coalitions typically form swiftly, often centering on ecological and economic issues.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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