Latest voting intention survey by Maskína for Iceland
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Iceland conducted by Maskína, the parties received the following results: Samfylkingin 22.7%, Viðreisn 20.9%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 14.6%, Miðflokkurinn 12.6%, Flokkur fólksins 8.8%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.9%, Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 5%, Píratar 4.3%, V 3.1%, L 1.6% and Y 0.6%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1400 people during the period 20.11.2024 - 20.11.2024. The survey was commissioned by Visir.
1400 participants
15.11.2024 - 20.11.2024
Maskína
Visir
S
22.7
+2.6
C
20.9
+1.0
D
14.6
+1.2
M
12.6
±0.0
F
8.8
-0.4
B
5.9
-1.4
J
5.0
-1.3
P
4.3
-0.8
V
3.1
-0.3
L
1.6
-0.5
Y
0.6
±0.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
63
Majority requires 32 seats
J
3
4.8%
S
16
25.4%
F
6
9.5%
P
2
3.2%
C
14
22.2%
D
10
15.9%
M
8
12.7%
B
4
6.3%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
Viðreisn + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
72
PolitPro Score
Maskína achieves a score of 72/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.3
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Maskína pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.3 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.47
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2024 | 2/3 |
|
2.11
|
Parliamentary Election in Island 2021 | 3/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.