United Kingdom: Polls and trends for the UK election 2024

Current Election Trend for United Kingdom

Lab
44.4
Con
25.5
Reform
9.5
LDEM
9.3
Greens
6.0
SNP
3.1
Sonst.
2.2
Next election: 2024
The next parliamentary election in United Kingdom is expected to take place in 2024.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 26.1% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in United Kingdom?

In the current election trend in United Kingdom, Labour leads with 44.4%. This is a significant increase of +12.2 percentage points since the last election.

Tories reaches 25.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-18.1).

Reform UK reaches 9.5%. This is a significant increase of +7.5 percentage points since the last election.

Liberal Democrats experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 9.3% (-2.2).

Green Party lands at 6% and gains +3.3 percentage points since the last election.

Scottish National Party reaches 3.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.8 percentage points).

2.2% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Opinium for The Observer, WeThink, Techne, Deltapoll, Redfield & Wilton Strategies, YouGov for The Times, Survation, PeoplePolling, More in Common and Savanta ComRes, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 16973 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in United Kingdom, the government from Tories would secure 26.1% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: Labour, Tories, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Scottish National Party reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 67.3% - 32.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for United Kingdom

What is the latest poll for United Kingdom?

The latest poll for the election in United Kingdom was published by Opinium. The parties achieve the following values: Labour 42%, Tories 27%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Reform UK 10%, Green Party 7% and Scottish National Party 3%.

Coalitions

Labour + Tories
71.5
Labour + Liberal Democrats
54.9
Labour + Green Party
51.5
Labour
45.4
Tories
26.1

Which coalitions are currently possible in United Kingdom?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Labour and Tories, Coalition from Labour and Liberal Democrats and Coalition from Labour and Green Party each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in United Kingdom shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Tories
+1.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Reform UK
-1.0 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Labour
Tories
Reform UK
Liberal Democrats
Green Party
Scottish National Party
Show more

United Kingdom — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in United Kingdom in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in United Kingdom took place on 12.12.2019.

Government and parliament

König Charles III.
Head of state
Rishi Sunak
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 650
Government & opposition
Government : 365
Opposition : 285
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 265
Right-leaning parties : 373

Which parties are in the parliament of United Kingdom?

In the parliament of United Kingdom, there are 650 representatives from 10 parties. 365 representatives are part of the government from Tories. The opposition from Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Green Party, Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin, Plaid Cymru, Social Democratic and Labour Party and Alliance has 285 representatives.

265 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 373 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in United Kingdom?

Rishi Sunak governs in United Kingdom with a coalition of Tories. The head of state is König Charles III..

Parliamentary election in United Kingdom 2024

The Parliamentary election in United Kingdom 2024 will probably take place in 2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Rishi Sunak is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Tories. In the last Parliamentary election in United Kingdom in 2019, Tories (43.6% - 365 seats), Labour (32.2% - 203 seats), Liberal Democrats (11.5% - 11 seats), Scottish National Party (3.9% - 48 seats), Green Party (2.7% - 1 seats), Democratic Unionist Party (0.8% - 8 seats), Sinn Féin (0.6% - 7 seats), Plaid Cymru (0.5% - 4 seats), Social Democratic and Labour Party (0.4% - 2 seats) and Alliance (0.4% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 67.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in United Kingdom?

The next election in United Kingdom is expected to take place in the year 2024.

Who is the president of United Kingdom?

The head of state of United Kingdom is König Charles III..

Who governs in United Kingdom?

Rishi Sunak governs in United Kingdom with a coalition of Tories.

What is the latest poll for United Kingdom?

The latest poll for the election in United Kingdom was published by Opinium. The parties achieve the following values: Labour 42%, Tories 27%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Reform UK 10%, Green Party 7% and Scottish National Party 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of United Kingdom?

In the parliament of United Kingdom, there are 650 representatives from 10 parties. 365 representatives are part of the government from Tories. The opposition from Labour, Liberal Democrats, Scottish National Party, Green Party, Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Féin, Plaid Cymru, Social Democratic and Labour Party and Alliance has 285 representatives.