Slovenia Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Slovenia's economy is undergoing a political shift: The new center-right government, led by Janez Janša and in office since June 2026, is promising tax relief and less red tape to boost the economy. The country's GDP is expected to grow by 1.9% in 2026, primarily driven by domestic demand. At the same time, high living costs and an inflation rate of 3.6% in June are putting a strain on households. A controversial intervention law, which includes tax cuts and lower VAT for basic foodstuffs, aims to provide relief but is being criticized for potential risks to state finances. The EU has also called for fiscal discipline.

Slovenia is recalibrating its migration and border policies: This week, the temporary Schengen border controls with Croatia and Hungary, which had been in place since 2023, were lifted. As of July 10th, surveillance is shifting to risk-based, mobile measures within the country. This move follows the full implementation of the EU Migration and Asylum Pact on June 12, 2026, which promotes an unrestricted Schengen area. However, migration policy remains restrictive. Prime Minister Janez Janša rejects accepting migrants from other EU countries in 2026 and is paying 1.8 million Euros into the EU Solidarity Mechanism. Janša is calling for stricter implementation of the pact and a tougher stance against "social tourism." Meanwhile, the EU Commission is urging Slovenia to fully implement directives on labor migration and reception conditions. Civil society also criticizes restrictions on migrants' political rights.

Slovenia is undergoing a sharp geopolitical shift under the new right-wing government led by Janez Janša. While Ljubljana reaffirms its NATO commitments, the alliance rejects counting civilian infrastructure projects as defense spending, which widens the defense gap. Internationally, the planned relocation of the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem is causing friction with the EU, which criticizes this move. At the same time, Slovenia reaffirms its support for EU enlargement in the Western Balkans and Ukraine, a stance considered a priority for the new government. However, the country's export-dependent economy remains vulnerable to global shocks, while internal reform debates add to the nation's challenges.

Since June 2026, Slovenia has been governed by a fragile minority government under Prime Minister Janez Janša. This center-right coalition relies on the far-right party Resni.ca. The political climate remains polarized, with concerns about media freedom and authoritarian leanings, which undermines governmental stability. The current situation stems from the parliamentary elections in March 2026, which did not produce a clear majority. After the previous center-left coalition failed, Janša's SDS formed an alliance that, lacking an absolute majority, depends on controversial partners, highlighting the systemic fragmentation.

Slovenia is grappling with severe energy shortages and has become the first EU country to introduce fuel rationing, limiting private motorists to 50 liters per day. This drastic measure comes in response to rising energy prices due to the US-Israel conflict with Iran, even though the government claims sufficient reserves. In parallel, Ljubljana is pushing ahead with its energy transition: since July 15, the country has been fully integrated into the EU electricity market via the MARI platform to strengthen European electricity balancing. Additionally, a system for nationwide sharing of surplus solar power launched on July 1, accompanied by massive EU-funded investments in modernizing power grids and critical infrastructure projects such as the second railway track Divača-Koper.

Slovenia is navigating growing social tensions between generations. Government policies, particularly the pension reform passed in 2025 and the "Law on Intervention Measures for the Development of Slovenia" (ZIURS) which came into effect in May 2026, are reshaping the social contract. The pension reform gradually raises the retirement age and adjusts pension calculations to address the aging population. Since July 2026, a "dual status" regulation has allowed working retirees to receive their full pension, aiming to counteract labor shortages. At the same time, a controversial "security law" has, since January 2026, stripped over a thousand people, many from the Roma community, of social welfare benefits, exacerbating poverty and straining social peace.

Rents in Slovenia are set to increase by an average of 3 to 5 percent in 2026, with even sharper rises expected in university cities like Ljubljana. In response, the government raised the minimum wage for students to 7.73 euros net per hour to help offset living costs. However, this measure can hardly compensate for the growing burden of rising housing expenses. The ongoing housing shortage, particularly in urban centers, stems from a combination of low new construction and high demand – a failure that significantly impacts the life plans of young people.

Families and single parents in Slovenia are directly experiencing the effects of government policy: Since July 1, 2026, the newly enacted Intervention Development Law has brought noticeable relief to households. The value-added tax (VAT) on 15 essential foodstuffs like bread, milk, and pasta has dropped to 5 percent, and VAT on energy has been temporarily cut to 9.5 percent. Politically, the new coalition under Prime Minister Janez Janša is championing these measures to lower living costs and stimulate the economy. Simultaneously, the government is planning tax breaks for workers and raising the general tax-free allowance, all while investing 100 million euros annually in expanding public rental housing to tackle the urgent housing crisis.

Slovenian retirees are navigating a complex economic reality: The pension adjustment of 4.2% in February 2026 was a disappointment, as a new calculation model dampened the increase. Faced with rising living costs, the government is responding with the 'Law on Intervention Measures,' which provides for temporary VAT reductions on basic foodstuffs and energy starting in July 2026. At the same time, working pensioners can now receive 100% of their pension in addition to their salary, aimed at addressing labor shortages and strengthening their income situation.

Slovenia is experiencing a political shift that directly impacts the finances of its working population. The new center-right government, led by Janez Janša and in office since early June, is pushing through a comprehensive reform package. This package promises tax cuts on labor and rental income, along with a reduction in VAT for essential foods and energy. However, while annual inflation held steady at 3.6% in June and housing and energy prices continued to climb significantly, concerns are growing among the general public. Critics fear that these reforms, which also include a controversial cap on social security contributions for high earners, could worsen inequality and weaken public services. Rising housing costs, with rents projected to increase by 3-5% in 2026, are straining many households despite wage growth.

Entrepreneurs and property owners in Slovenia are seeing direct financial relief. An intervention law passed in May cuts the flat-rate tax for self-employed individuals to 20 percent. It also significantly reduces the taxation of rental income from 25 to 15 percent, and even down to 5 percent for long-term rentals to young people. These reforms, which take effect in July 2026, fulfill a key promise from the new government under Janez Janša. Their goal is to boost the economy, dismantle bureaucratic hurdles, and attract investments, especially after businesses previously complained about rising labor costs and uncertain economic policies. Additionally, the cap for social security contributions will be set at 7,500 Euros, aiming to draw highly qualified professionals.

The removal of the rainbow flag from the Slovenian Ministry of Culture, coupled with a rise in attacks during Pride Month in June, signals a concerning shift for the LGBTQ+ community. Since the new right-wing government, led by Prime Minister Janez Janša, took office in March 2026, activists have observed a worsening societal climate. This symbolic act and the increase in both verbal and physical assaults during the Pride parade in Ljubljana demonstrate how current political actions directly impact the sense of safety and acceptance for this demographic. The absence of specific legislation against hate crimes based on sexual orientation or gender identity further exacerbates the situation, while minorities like the Roma continue to face systematic discrimination.

Slovenia is drastically tightening its migration policy: The new right-conservative Janša government, which took office in June 2026, is refusing to accept new EU refugees and is instead paying 1.8 million Euros into the solidarity mechanism. This significant shift in migration policy, which also emphasizes a stricter stance against 'welfare tourism,' defines the current climate. In parallel, discussions are underway to limit municipal voting rights for long-term residents, directly affecting the political participation of immigrants and expats. These developments challenge a demographic group already grappling with Eastern Europe's second-highest cost of living, even as the labor market continues to seek skilled professionals in sectors like IT and tourism.