Election trends and current polls for Estonia

PolitPro Election Trend

The current PolitPro election trend for the next parliamentary elections
Ref
29.6%
+0.2
Kesk
21.9%
-1.1
EKRE
18.9%
+0.5
I
4.7%
-0.2
SDE
9.4%
+0.4
E200
10.7%
+0.5
EER
2.7%
+0.2
EVA
1%
±0
Sonstige
1.1%
-0.5
Changes to last election from 03.03.2019
Ref
+0.7
Kesk
-1.2
EKRE
+1.1
I
-6.7
SDE
-0.4
E200
+6.3
EER
+0.9
EVA
-0.2
Political orientation
Ref
arrow_forward_ios
Kesk
arrow_back_ios
EKRE
arrow_forward_iosarrow_forward_ios
I
arrow_forward_ios
SDE
arrow_back_ios
E200
zoom_out_map
EER
nature
EVA
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The artificial intelligence (AI) of PolitPro analyzes and evaluates current election polls of leading opinion research institutes. In the election trend, it calculates an intelligently weighted average of the values of current Sunday questions. For the calculation always the last values of an institute are used, taking into account the time dependencies as well as different qualitative and quantitative weightings.

The aim of the AI is to get a quick and uncomplicated overview of current political trends.

The displayed change of values always refers to the period of the last 7 days.

Latest polls

Current Sunday questions from leading opinion research institutes
Riigikogu
Norstat - 09.05.2020
Ref
29.8%
±0
23.8%
±0
19.2%
±0
I
4.6%
±0
SDE
9.3%
±0
8.6%
±0
EER
2.7%
±0
EVA
0.8%
±0
1.2%
-0.8
Riigikogu
Norstat - 30.04.2020
Ref
29.3%
-5.3
27.8%
+5.5
18.1%
±0
I
5.3%
+0.1
SDE
8.1%
-0.1
6.2%
-0.3
EER
2.1%
-0.2
EVA
0.7%
+0.5
2.4%
-0.2
Riigikogu
Kantar Emor - 28.04.2020
Ref
30%
+1
18%
+1
19%
-2
I
4%
±0
SDE
10%
-2
14%
+1
EER
3%
±0
EVA
0%
±0
2%
+1
Riigikogu
Norstat - 20.04.2020
Ref
34.6%
+1.7
22.3%
-1.2
18.1%
+1.8
I
5.2%
-1.1
SDE
8.2%
+0.2
6.5%
-1.9
EER
2.3%
+0.5
EVA
0.2%
-0.2
2.6%
+0.2
Riigikogu
Norstat - 14.04.2020
Ref
32.9%
-0.6
23.5%
-2.2
16.3%
+2.2
I
6.3%
+1.2
SDE
8%
+0.4
8.4%
+0.4
EER
1.8%
-0.3
EVA
0.4%
-0.3
2.4%
-0.8
Data source: EOPAOD

Coalition possibilities

Possible coalitions based on the current PolitPro election trend
Whole Parliament
Ref + Kesk
56.9%
Ref + E200 + SDE
54.9%
Ref + EKRE
53.6%
Kesk + E200 + SDE
46.4%

The coalitions are determined on the basis of a percentage distribution of seats of all parties represented in parliament. Possible overhang or compensation mandates are not taken into account.

The blocking clause is 5%.

Development of the election trend

The development of all parties since January 2018
Ref
Kesk
EKRE
I
SDE
E200
EER
EVA
EE

Last election

The results of the last election from 03.03.2019
Seats
Party Percent Seats
Ref 28.9% 1.2% 34 4
Kesk 23.1% -1.7% 26 -1
EKRE 17.8% 9.7% 19 12
Isamaa 11.4% -2.3% 12 -2
SDE 9.8% -5.4% 10 -5
E200 4.4% 4.4% 0 0
EER 1.8% 0.9% 0 0
Elurikkuse Erakond 1.2% 1.2% 0 0
EVA 1.2% -7.5% 0 -8
Sonstige 0.4% -0.5% 0 0
In the last election of the 03.03.2019 101 representatives from 5 parliamentary groups were elected to the parliament. The next election is scheduled for the year 2023.