Current Election Trend for Estonia
Who is leading in the election trend in Estonia?
In the current election trend in Estonia, Isamaa leads with 29.4%. This is a significant increase of +21.2 percentage points since the last election.
Reformierakond reaches 16.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-14.7).
EKRE reaches 16.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.1 percentage points).
SDE reaches 15.5%. This is a significant increase of +6.2 percentage points since the last election.
Keskerakond experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10.3% (-5.0).
E200 reaches 6.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-6.8).
Parempoolsed (2.4%), EER (2.2%) and KOOS (1.5%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.
0% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Norstat, Turu-uuringute AS and Kantar Emor, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 3468 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: Isamaa, Reformierakond, EKRE, SDE, Keskerakond and E200 reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament
Latest polls for Estonia
What is the latest poll for Estonia?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Estonia?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Estonia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isamaa |
+0.8
|
+3.5
|
+15.4
|
+20.8
|
+21.2
|
Reformierakond |
-2.3
|
-0.3
|
-7.4
|
-13.7
|
-14.7
|
EKRE |
-0.2
|
-4.0
|
-4.3
|
+2.7
|
+0.1
|
SDE |
-1.8
|
+4.0
|
+4.8
|
+6.3
|
+6.2
|
Keskerakond |
+0.5
|
-4.1
|
-6.6
|
-4.6
|
-5.0
|
E200 |
+2.9
|
+0.2
|
+0.1
|
-11.3
|
-6.8
|
Parempoolsed |
-0.6
|
+0.1
|
-1.3
|
-0.6
|
+0.1
|
EER |
+1.1
|
+0.6
|
+0.1
|
±0.0
|
+1.2
|
KOOS |
-0.1
|
+0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.5
|
Estonia — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Estonia?
In the parliament of Estonia, there are 101 representatives from 6 parties. 54 representatives are part of the government from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. The opposition from EKRE, Keskerakond and E200 has 47 representatives.
25 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 62 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Estonia?
Parliamentary election in Estonia 2027
The Parliamentary election in Estonia 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. In the last Parliamentary election in Estonia in 2023, Reformierakond (31.2% - 37 seats), EKRE (16.1% - 17 seats), Keskerakond (15.3% - 16 seats), E200 (13.3% - 14 seats), SDE (9.3% - 9 seats) and Isamaa (8.2% - 8 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.5%.