Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia, Isamaa is leading with 27.3%, followed by Reformierakond with 17.5%, EKRE with 14.6%, Keskerakond with 14.4%, SDE with 12.3%, Parempoolsed with 7.4%, EER with 2%, E200 with 1.9%, KOOS with 1.1% and Elurikkuse Erakond with 0.9%. Other parties reach 0.8%.
On the rise: I
+4.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: K
-2.7 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 61.4% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: SDE reaches 13 MPs, Keskerakond reaches 15 MPs, Reformierakond reaches 19 MPs, Isamaa reaches 30 MPs, Parempoolsed reaches 8 MPs and EKRE reaches 16 MPs.
5% restrictive clause
The restrictive clause in Estonia is 5%.
Majority from 51 MPs
To form a government, 51 of 101 MPs are required.
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
13
12.9%
K
15
14.9%
R
19
18.8%
I
30
29.7%
P
8
7.9%
EKRE
16
15.8%
Latest polls for Estonia
Estonia — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Estonia
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isamaa |
+4.5
|
-2.1
|
-1.5
|
+0.6
|
+19.1
|
| Reformierakond |
-1.9
|
+0.4
|
±0.0
|
-0.6
|
-13.7
|
| EKRE |
-2.3
|
-0.2
|
+3.0
|
-2.7
|
-1.5
|
| Keskerakond |
-2.7
|
+1.9
|
+1.5
|
+2.5
|
-0.9
|
| SDE |
+2.8
|
-0.3
|
-2.0
|
-2.9
|
+3.0
|
| Parempoolsed |
+0.4
|
+1.6
|
+1.6
|
+4.2
|
+5.1
|
| EER |
+0.4
|
+0.5
|
+0.6
|
+0.1
|
+1.0
|
| E200 |
-1.4
|
-0.8
|
-2.6
|
-2.5
|
-11.4
|
| KOOS |
±0.0
|
-0.8
|
-0.4
|
+0.6
|
+1.1
|
| Elurikkuse Erakond |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.2
|
±0.0
|
+0.9
|
What's happening in Estonia?
Russia accused of GPS jamming after aircraft disrupted
Finnair suspended flights to the Estonian city of Tartu after GPS signal interference prevented two planes from landing. Estonia and Lithuania have blamed Russia for jamming GPS signals in the region.
DW.com
- 30.04.2024
Russia declares Estonian PM Kaja Kallas a 'wanted' person
The criminal charges reportedly relate to the destruction of Soviet-era monuments. Kaja Kallas has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine defending itself against the Russian invasion.
DW.com
- 13.02.2024
Baltic states shut borders to Russia-registered cars
Estonia has joined Latvia and Lithuania in closing its borders to all vehicles registered in Russia. The ban, which came in response to updated EU guidlines on sanctions, could widen to include other countries.
DW.com
- 13.09.2023
Government and parliament
Alar Karis
Head of state
Kaja Kallas
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 101
Government & opposition
Government
: 54
Opposition
: 47
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 25
Right-leaning parties
: 62
Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Estonia
| Score | Institute | Accuracy | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
73
|
1.5
|
high
| |
|
69
|
2.1
|
medium
| |
|
68
|
2.1
|
medium
|
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.