Estonia: Polls and trends for the Estonian election 2027

Current Election Trend for Estonia

I
26.5
R
17.0
EKRE
16.8
SDE
15.2
K
11.1
E200
6.1
P
2.9
EER
2.0
KOOS
2.0
Sonst.
0.4
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 63.3% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Estonia?

In the current election trend in Estonia, Isamaa leads with 26.5%. This is a significant increase of +18.3 percentage points since the last election.

Reformierakond reaches 17%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-14.2).

EKRE reaches 16.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).

SDE reaches 15.2%. This is a significant increase of +5.9 percentage points since the last election.

Keskerakond experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 11.1% (-4.2).

E200 reaches 6.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.2).

Parempoolsed (2.9%), EER (2%) and KOOS (2%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Turu-uuringute AS, Norstat for Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut and Kantar Emor, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3468 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Estonia, the government from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa would secure 63.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: Isamaa, Reformierakond, EKRE, SDE, Keskerakond and E200 reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 63.5% - 36.5% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Estonia
· 7 / 720 seats
26.5
17
16.8
15.2
11.1
6.1
2.9
2
0.4

Latest polls for Estonia

Norstat
· 5 days ago
5 days ago
Open Details
28.7
18
16.2
13.7
13.3
5.8
2.5
1.3
0.5
Kantar Emor
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
27
16.7
16.7
15.2
11.8
5.3
3.2
2.9
0.7
0.5

What is the latest poll for Estonia?

The latest poll for the election in Estonia was published by Turu-uuringute AS. The parties achieve the following values: Isamaa 24%, Reformierakond 18%, EKRE 17%, SDE 16%, Keskerakond 8%, E200 7%, Parempoolsed 3%, EER 2%, KOOS 2% and EÜVP 0%.

Coalitions

Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
65.0
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
63.3
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
58.9
Isamaa + SDE + Keskerakond
57.0
Isamaa + Reformierakond + E200
53.5
Reformierakond + SDE + Keskerakond + E200
Isamaa + EKRE + E200
53.3
Isamaa + SDE + E200
51.6
Show more

Which coalitions are currently possible in Estonia?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Isamaa, Reformierakond and EKRE, Coalition from Isamaa, Reformierakond and SDE, Coalition from Isamaa, Reformierakond and Keskerakond, Coalition from Isamaa, SDE and Keskerakond, Coalition from Isamaa, Reformierakond and E200, Coalition from Reformierakond, SDE, Keskerakond and E200, Coalition from Isamaa, EKRE and E200 and Coalition from Isamaa, SDE and E200 each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Estonia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Isamaa
+2.4 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: SDE
-2.2 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Isamaa
Reformierakond
EKRE
SDE
Keskerakond
E200
Parempoolsed
EER
KOOS
Show more

Estonia — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Estonia in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Estonia took place on 05.03.2023.

Government and parliament

Alar Karis
Head of state
Kaja Kallas
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 101
Government & opposition
Government : 54
Opposition : 47
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 25
Right-leaning parties : 62

Which parties are in the parliament of Estonia?

In the parliament of Estonia, there are 101 representatives from 6 parties. 54 representatives are part of the government from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. The opposition from EKRE, Keskerakond and E200 has 47 representatives.

25 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 62 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Estonia?

Kaja Kallas governs in Estonia with a coalition of Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. The head of state is Alar Karis.

Parliamentary election in Estonia 2027

The Parliamentary election in Estonia 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. In the last Parliamentary election in Estonia in 2023, Reformierakond (31.2% - 37 seats), EKRE (16.1% - 17 seats), Keskerakond (15.3% - 16 seats), E200 (13.3% - 14 seats), SDE (9.3% - 9 seats) and Isamaa (8.2% - 8 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.5%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Estonia?

The next election in Estonia is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Estonia?

The head of state of Estonia is Alar Karis.

Who governs in Estonia?

Kaja Kallas governs in Estonia with a coalition of Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa.

What is the electoral threshold in Estonia?

The electoral threshold in Estonia is 5%.

What is the latest poll for Estonia?

The latest poll for the election in Estonia was published by Turu-uuringute AS. The parties achieve the following values: Isamaa 24%, Reformierakond 18%, EKRE 17%, SDE 16%, Keskerakond 8%, E200 7%, Parempoolsed 3%, EER 2%, KOOS 2% and EÜVP 0%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Estonia?

In the parliament of Estonia, there are 101 representatives from 6 parties. 54 representatives are part of the government from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. The opposition from EKRE, Keskerakond and E200 has 47 representatives.