Current Election Trend for Estonia

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia, Isamaa is leading with 27.3%, followed by Reformierakond with 17.5%, EKRE with 14.6%, Keskerakond with 14.4%, SDE with 12.3%, Parempoolsed with 7.4%, EER with 2%, E200 with 1.9%, KOOS with 1.1% and Elurikkuse Erakond with 0.9%. Other parties reach 0.8%.

On the rise: I

+4.5 growth in the last 30 days

Trending down: K

-2.7 loss in the last 30 days

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Government could stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 61.4% of the votes.
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
I
27.3
R
17.5
EKRE
14.6
K
14.4
SDE
12.3
P
7.4
EER
2.0
E200
1.9
KOOS
1.1
ER
0.9
Others
0.8

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: SDE reaches 13 MPs, Keskerakond reaches 15 MPs, Reformierakond reaches 19 MPs, Isamaa reaches 30 MPs, Parempoolsed reaches 8 MPs and EKRE reaches 16 MPs.

5% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause in Estonia is 5%.

Majority from 51 MPs

To form a government, 51 of 101 MPs are required.
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
64.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
63.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
61.4%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
57.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
56.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE + Parempoolsed
54.5%
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
53.5%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
52.5%
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
50.5%
101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
13
12.9%
K
15
14.9%
R
19
18.8%
I
30
29.7%
P
8
7.9%
EKRE
16
15.8%

Latest polls for Estonia

Norstat
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
30
17.6
13.9
13.9
13.4
7.2
1.8
0.6
1.6
Norstat
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
28.1
19.1
16.4
12
11.3
4.7
4.1
1.2
0.9
2.2
Norstat
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
24.2
19.3
17.8
16.8
11.5
4.6
3.2
1.4
0.4
0.8

Estonia — National parliament voting intention

Parties in Estonia

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Isamaa
Reformierakond
EKRE
Keskerakond
SDE
Parempoolsed
EER
E200
KOOS
Elurikkuse Erakond
Show more

What's happening in Estonia?

Russia accused of GPS jamming after aircraft disrupted
Finnair suspended flights to the Estonian city of Tartu after GPS signal interference prevented two planes from landing. Estonia and Lithuania have blamed Russia for jamming GPS signals in the region.
DW.com - 30.04.2024
Russia declares Estonian PM Kaja Kallas a 'wanted' person
The criminal charges reportedly relate to the destruction of Soviet-era monuments. Kaja Kallas has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine defending itself against the Russian invasion.
DW.com - 13.02.2024
Baltic states shut borders to Russia-registered cars
Estonia has joined Latvia and Lithuania in closing its borders to all vehicles registered in Russia. The ban, which came in response to updated EU guidlines on sanctions, could widen to include other countries.
DW.com - 13.09.2023

Government and parliament

Alar Karis

Head of state

Kaja Kallas

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 101
Government & opposition
Government : 54
Opposition : 47
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 25
Right-leaning parties : 62

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Estonia

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
73
1.5
high
69
2.1
medium
68
2.1
medium

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.