Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia, Isamaa is leading with 28%, followed by Reformierakond with 16.7%, Keskerakond with 15.9%, EKRE with 15.5%, SDE with 11.2%, Parempoolsed with 4.9%, E200 with 3.3%, Elurikkuse Erakond with 1.6%, EER with 1.5% and KOOS with 1.4%. Other parties reach 0.1%.
On the rise: I
+1.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: R
-1.5 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 64.4% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: SDE reaches 13 MPs, Keskerakond reaches 18 MPs, Reformierakond reaches 19 MPs, Isamaa reaches 33 MPs and EKRE reaches 18 MPs.
5% restrictive clause
The restrictive clause in Estonia is 5%.
Majority from 51 MPs
To form a government, 51 of 101 MPs are required.
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
Isamaa + Reformierakond
Isamaa + Keskerakond
Isamaa + EKRE
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
13
12.9%
K
18
17.8%
R
19
18.8%
I
33
32.7%
EKRE
18
17.8%
Latest polls for Estonia
New
Norstat
Open Details
Estonia — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Estonia
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isamaa |
+1.8
|
+0.4
|
-0.2
|
+3.9
|
+19.8
|
| Reformierakond |
-1.5
|
-1.0
|
-1.1
|
+0.6
|
-14.5
|
| Keskerakond |
+1.5
|
+4.2
|
+2.9
|
+3.1
|
+0.6
|
| EKRE |
-0.1
|
+3.2
|
+3.2
|
-2.8
|
-0.6
|
| SDE |
-1.0
|
-3.6
|
-5.5
|
-6.2
|
+1.9
|
| Parempoolsed |
+0.4
|
-0.7
|
+0.2
|
+2.2
|
+2.6
|
| E200 |
-0.4
|
-0.5
|
+0.1
|
-1.8
|
-10.0
|
| Elurikkuse Erakond |
-0.7
|
-0.2
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+1.6
|
| EER |
-0.1
|
±0.0
|
+0.5
|
±0.0
|
+0.5
|
| KOOS |
±0.0
|
-1.0
|
-1.4
|
-0.6
|
+1.4
|
Government and parliament
Alar Karis
Head of state
Kaja Kallas
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 101
Government & opposition
Government
: 54
Opposition
: 47
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 25
Right-leaning parties
: 62
Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Estonia
| Score | Institute | Accuracy | Neutrality |
|---|---|---|---|
|
73
|
1.5
|
bad
| |
|
68
|
2.1
|
bad
| |
|
52
|
2.0
|
unknown
| |
|
51
|
2.1
|
unknown
|
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.