Austria: Polls and trends for the Austrian election 2024

Current Election Trend for Austria

FPÖ
28.6
SPÖ
22.4
ÖVP
21.1
NEOS
10.4
GRÜNE
8.5
BIER
5.7
KPÖ
2.8
Sonst.
0.5
Next election: 2024
The next parliamentary election in Austria is expected to take place in 2024.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 30.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Austria?

In the current election trend in Austria, FPÖ leads with 28.6%. This is a significant increase of +12.4 percentage points since the last election.

SPÖ lands at 22.4% and gains +1.2 percentage points since the last election.

ÖVP reaches 21.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-16.4).

NEOS lands at 10.4% and gains +2.3 percentage points since the last election.

GRÜNE reaches 8.5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.4).

Bierpartei reaches 5.7%. This is a significant increase of +5.6 percentage points since the last election.

KPÖ (2.8%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.5% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft for O24, Market for Der Standard, IFDD, OGM for Servus TV, INSA for eXXpress, Triple M and Peter Hajek, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 9217 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Austria, the government from ÖVP and GRÜNE would secure 30.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: FPÖ, SPÖ, ÖVP, NEOS, GRÜNE and Bierpartei reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 75.6% - 24.4% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Austria
· 20 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
27.1
22.6
21.7
13.8
10.1
2.5
2.2

Latest polls for Austria

What is the latest poll for Austria?

The latest poll for the election in Austria was published by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft. The parties achieve the following values: FPÖ 27%, SPÖ 22%, ÖVP 20%, NEOS 11%, GRÜNE 9%, Bierpartei 7% and KPÖ 3%.

Coalitions

SPÖ + ÖVP + NEOS
55.8
SPÖ + ÖVP + GRÜNE
53.8
FPÖ + SPÖ
52.8
FPÖ + ÖVP
51.4
SPÖ + ÖVP + Bierpartei
50.9
SPÖ + ÖVP
45.0
ÖVP + GRÜNE
30.6
Show more

Which coalitions are currently possible in Austria?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from SPÖ, ÖVP and NEOS, Coalition from SPÖ, ÖVP and GRÜNE, Coalition from FPÖ and SPÖ, Coalition from FPÖ and ÖVP and Coalition from SPÖ, ÖVP and Bierpartei each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Austria shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Polling the states

Information about the Strongest Parties in the Federal States

The map of the polling results for the federal states shows the strongest party in the election trend of each respective state. The colors of the parties are updated daily based on the latest poll results.

SPÖ currently leads in the election trend of 3 federal states: Burgenland, Carinthia and Vienna.

ÖVP currently leads in the election trend of 4 federal states: Lower Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol and Vorarlberg.

FPÖ currently leads in the election trend of 2 federal states: Styria and Upper Austria.

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: NEOS
+0.6 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: FPÖ
-0.8 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
FPÖ
SPÖ
ÖVP
NEOS
GRÜNE
Bierpartei
KPÖ
Show more

Austria — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Austria in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Austria took place on 29.09.2019.

Government and parliament

Alexander Van der Bellen
Head of state
Karl Nehammer
Chancellor
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 183
Government & opposition
Government : 97
Opposition : 86
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 66
Right-leaning parties : 102

Which parties are in the parliament of Austria?

In the parliament of Austria, there are 183 representatives from 5 parties. 97 representatives are part of the government from ÖVP and GRÜNE. The opposition from SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS has 86 representatives.

66 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 102 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Austria?

Karl Nehammer governs in Austria with a coalition of ÖVP and GRÜNE. The head of state is Alexander Van der Bellen.

Parliamentary election in Austria 2024

The Parliamentary election in Austria 2024 will probably take place in 2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Karl Nehammer is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of ÖVP and GRÜNE. In the last Parliamentary election in Austria in 2019, ÖVP (37.5% - 71 seats), SPÖ (21.2% - 40 seats), FPÖ (16.2% - 31 seats), GRÜNE (13.9% - 26 seats) and NEOS (8.1% - 15 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 75.6%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Austria?

The next election in Austria is expected to take place in the year 2024.

Who is the president of Austria?

The head of state of Austria is Alexander Van der Bellen.

Who governs in Austria?

Karl Nehammer governs in Austria with a coalition of ÖVP and GRÜNE.

What is the electoral threshold in Austria?

The electoral threshold in Austria is 4% of valid votes or one basic mandate.

What is the latest poll for Austria?

The latest poll for the election in Austria was published by Lazarsfeld Gesellschaft. The parties achieve the following values: FPÖ 27%, SPÖ 22%, ÖVP 20%, NEOS 11%, GRÜNE 9%, Bierpartei 7% and KPÖ 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Austria?

In the parliament of Austria, there are 183 representatives from 5 parties. 97 representatives are part of the government from ÖVP and GRÜNE. The opposition from SPÖ, FPÖ and NEOS has 86 representatives.