Portugal: Polls and trends for the Portuguese election 2028

Current Election Trend for Portugal

AD
29.1
PS
29.0
CH
18.4
IL
5.5
L
5.1
BE
5.0
CDU
2.9
PAN
2.2
Sonst.
2.8
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 29.9% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Portugal?

In the current election trend in Portugal, Aliança Democrática leads with 29.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).

Partido Socialista reaches 29% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

Chega reaches 18.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

Iniciativa Liberal reaches 5.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.4 percentage points).

LIVRE lands at 5.1% and gains +1.8 percentage points since the last election.

Bloco de Esquerda reaches 5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.5 percentage points).

CDU reaches 2.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).

PAN reaches 2.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

2.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from CESOP-UCP, Intercampus for Correio da Manhã, Duplimétrica, Consulmark2, Aximage and ICS/ISCTE, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1570 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Portugal, the government from Aliança Democrática would secure 29.9% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Aliança Democrática, Partido Socialista, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal, LIVRE, Bloco de Esquerda, CDU and PAN reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 66.2% - 33.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Portugal
· 21 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
28.9
27.9
14.9
8.5
5.8
4.9
3.9
2.1
3.1

Latest polls for Portugal

New CESOP-UCP
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
30
29
19
5
5
4
3
2
Intercampus
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
28.7
24.3
15.6
9.7
7.9
5.7
2.9
2.3
2.9
Duplimétrica
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
35
29
15
6
5
4
3
1

What is the latest poll for Portugal?

The latest poll for the election in Portugal was published by CESOP-UCP. The parties achieve the following values: Aliança Democrática 30%, Partido Socialista 29%, Chega 19%, Iniciativa Liberal 5%, LIVRE 5%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, CDU 3% and PAN 2%.

Coalitions

230
BE
12
CDU
6
L
12
PAN
5
PS
69
IL
13
AD
69
CH
44
Majority requires 116 seats
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
138
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
126
Aliança Democrática + Chega
113
Aliança Democrática
69

Which coalitions are currently possible in Portugal?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Aliança Democrática and Partido Socialista and Coalition from Aliança Democrática, Chega and Iniciativa Liberal each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Portugal shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Aliança Democrática
Partido Socialista
Chega
Iniciativa Liberal
LIVRE
Bloco de Esquerda
CDU
PAN
Show more

Portugal — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Portugal in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Portugal took place on 10.03.2024.

Government and parliament

Luís Montenegro
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 226
Government & opposition
Government : 79
Opposition : 147
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 91
Right-leaning parties : 127

Which parties are in the parliament of Portugal?

In the parliament of Portugal, there are 226 representatives from 8 parties. 79 representatives are part of the government from Aliança Democrática. The opposition from Partido Socialista, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal, Bloco de Esquerda, LIVRE, CDU and PAN has 147 representatives.

91 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 127 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Portugal?

Luís Montenegro governs in Portugal with a coalition of Aliança Democrática.

Parliamentary election in Portugal 2028

The Parliamentary election in Portugal 2028 will probably take place in 2028. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Luís Montenegro is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Aliança Democrática. In the last Parliamentary election in Portugal in 2024, Aliança Democrática (29.5% - 79 seats), Partido Socialista (28.7% - 77 seats), Chega (18.1% - 48 seats), Iniciativa Liberal (5.1% - 8 seats), Bloco de Esquerda (4.5% - 5 seats), LIVRE (3.3% - 4 seats), CDU (3.3% - 4 seats) and PAN (1.9% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 66.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Portugal?

The next election in Portugal is expected to take place in the year 2028.

Who is the president of Portugal?

The head of state of Portugal is Luís Montenegro.

Who governs in Portugal?

Luís Montenegro governs in Portugal with a coalition of Aliança Democrática.

What is the latest poll for Portugal?

The latest poll for the election in Portugal was published by CESOP-UCP. The parties achieve the following values: Aliança Democrática 30%, Partido Socialista 29%, Chega 19%, Iniciativa Liberal 5%, LIVRE 5%, Bloco de Esquerda 4%, CDU 3% and PAN 2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Portugal?

In the parliament of Portugal, there are 226 representatives from 8 parties. 79 representatives are part of the government from Aliança Democrática. The opposition from Partido Socialista, Chega, Iniciativa Liberal, Bloco de Esquerda, LIVRE, CDU and PAN has 147 representatives.