Current Election Trend for Portugal

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal, Aliança Democrática is leading with 30.3%, followed by Partido Socialista with 28.5%, Chega with 17.8%, Iniciativa Liberal with 6.1%, LIVRE with 3.7%, CDU with 3.4%, Bloco de Esquerda with 2.8% and PAN with 2.2%. Other parties reach 5.2%.

On the rise: CH

+1.4 growth in the last 30 days

Trending down: L

-0.8 loss in the last 30 days

Next election: 18.05.2025

The next general election in Portugal will be held in 21.

Government might not stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 32.2% of the votes.
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
AD
30.3
PS
28.5
CH
17.8
IL
6.1
L
3.7
CDU
3.4
BE
2.8
PAN
2.2
Others
5.2

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: CDU reaches 8 MPs, Bloco de Esquerda reaches 7 MPs, LIVRE reaches 9 MPs, PAN reaches 5 MPs, Partido Socialista reaches 70 MPs, Iniciativa Liberal reaches 14 MPs, Aliança Democrática reaches 74 MPs and Chega reaches 43 MPs.

No restrictive clause

The restrictive clause is 0%.

Majority from 116 MPs

To form a government, 116 of 230 MPs are required.
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
62.6%
Aliança Democrática + Chega
50.9%
Aliança Democrática
32.2%
230
Majority requires 116 seats
CDU
8
3.5%
BE
7
3%
L
9
3.9%
PAN
5
2.2%
PS
70
30.4%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
74
32.2%
CH
43
18.7%

Latest polls for Portugal

ICS/ISCTE
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
33
29
21
4
2
2
2
1
Intercampus
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
28.8
27.2
17.1
6.7
5.9
5.1
3.4
3
2.8
Aximage
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
30.1
27.2
18.6
6.1
4.4
3.2
2.3
1.8
6.3

Portugal — National parliament voting intention

Parties in Portugal

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Aliança Democrática
Partido Socialista
Chega
Iniciativa Liberal
LIVRE
CDU
Bloco de Esquerda
PAN
Show more

Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2025

What's happening in Portugal?

Government and parliament

Luís Montenegro

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 226
Government & opposition
Government : 79
Opposition : 147
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 91
Right-leaning parties : 127

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Portugal

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
74
0.9
high
74
1.9
medium
73
1.5
low
69
2.0
high
68
2.1
high
More Institutes

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.