Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal, Aliança Democrática is leading with 29.8%, followed by Partido Socialista with 28.5%, Chega with 17.6%, Iniciativa Liberal with 5.8%, Bloco de Esquerda with 4.4%, LIVRE with 3.5%, CDU with 3.4% and PAN with 2.6%. Other parties reach 4.4%.
On the rise: CH
+0.9 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: IL
-1.7 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2028
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2028.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 31.3% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 10.03.2024
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Bloco de Esquerda reaches 10 MPs, CDU reaches 8 MPs, LIVRE reaches 8 MPs, PAN reaches 6 MPs, Partido Socialista reaches 69 MPs, Iniciativa Liberal reaches 14 MPs, Aliança Democrática reaches 72 MPs and Chega reaches 43 MPs.
No restrictive clause
The restrictive clause is 0%.
Majority from 116 MPs
To form a government, 116 of 230 MPs are required.
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Aliança Democrática + Chega + Iniciativa Liberal
Aliança Democrática + Chega
Aliança Democrática
230
Majority requires 116 seats
BE
10
4.3%
CDU
8
3.5%
L
8
3.5%
PAN
6
2.6%
PS
69
30%
IL
14
6.1%
AD
72
31.3%
CH
43
18.7%
Latest polls for Portugal
New
Aximage
Open Details
Portugal — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Portugal
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aliança Democrática |
+0.2
|
-1.9
|
+0.7
|
+1.0
|
+0.3
|
Partido Socialista |
-0.9
|
-0.6
|
+0.3
|
-0.1
|
-0.2
|
Chega |
+0.5
|
+0.9
|
+2.2
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
Iniciativa Liberal |
-1.7
|
-0.6
|
-3.0
|
-0.1
|
+0.7
|
Bloco de Esquerda |
-0.6
|
-0.3
|
-1.1
|
-1.1
|
-0.1
|
LIVRE |
±0.0
|
+0.3
|
-1.1
|
+0.7
|
+0.2
|
CDU |
+0.4
|
+0.2
|
+0.7
|
+0.8
|
+0.1
|
PAN |
-0.2
|
+0.6
|
-0.5
|
+0.2
|
+0.7
|
Government and parliament
Luís Montenegro
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 226
Government & opposition
Government
: 79
Opposition
: 147
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 91
Right-leaning parties
: 127
Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Portugal
Score | Institute | Accuracy | Deviation |
---|---|---|---|
74
|
1.5
|
low
| |
73
|
1.9
|
medium
| |
72
|
0.9
|
high
| |
70
|
2.1
|
medium
| |
68
|
2.0
|
high
| |
More Institutes |
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.