Current Election Trend for Portugal
Who is leading the election trend?
In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Portugal, Aliança Democrática is leading with 30.2%, followed by Partido Socialista with 24.6%, Chega with 23.2%, Iniciativa Liberal with 6.4%, LIVRE with 5.8%, CDU with 3.6%, PAN with 2.5% and Bloco de Esquerda with 1.4%. Other parties reach 2.3%.
On the rise: CDU
+1.9 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: PS
-1.7 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2029
The next parliamentary election in Portugal is expected to take place in 2029.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 31.3% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 18.05.2025
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
Coalitions
Who could enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: CDU reaches 8 MPs, Bloco de Esquerda reaches 3 MPs, LIVRE reaches 13 MPs, PAN reaches 6 MPs, Partido Socialista reaches 58 MPs, Iniciativa Liberal reaches 15 MPs, Aliança Democrática reaches 72 MPs and Chega reaches 55 MPs.
Electoral System
The 230 parliamentary seats are allocated through proportional representation using the d'Hondt method. Each of the 22 electoral districts receives between 2 and 48 seats depending on the population size. Parties and coalitions can be elected if they receive at least 3% of the votes in each district. There are no overhang mandates.
No restrictive clause
The restrictive clause is 0%.
Majority from 116 MPs
To form a government, 116 of 230 MPs are required.
Aliança Democrática + Partido Socialista
Aliança Democrática + Chega
Aliança Democrática
230
Majority requires 116 seats
CDU
8
3.5%
BE
3
1.3%
L
13
5.7%
PAN
6
2.6%
PS
58
25.2%
IL
15
6.5%
AD
72
31.3%
CH
55
23.9%
Latest polls for Portugal
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2025
18.05.2025
Parliamentary Election in Portugal 2024
10.03.2024
Portugal — National parliament voting intention
Parties in Portugal
Election trend by party at a glance
| Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliança Democrática |
±0.0
|
+1.3
|
-2.9
|
-1.5
|
-1.6
|
| Partido Socialista |
±0.0
|
-1.7
|
-2.7
|
-4.5
|
+1.8
|
| Chega |
±0.0
|
+1.1
|
+6.0
|
+6.5
|
+0.4
|
| Iniciativa Liberal |
±0.0
|
-1.7
|
-0.2
|
±0.0
|
+1.0
|
| LIVRE |
±0.0
|
-0.2
|
+1.7
|
+2.6
|
+1.7
|
| CDU |
±0.0
|
+1.9
|
+0.3
|
+0.4
|
+0.7
|
| PAN |
±0.0
|
-0.7
|
+1.0
|
+0.5
|
+1.1
|
| Bloco de Esquerda |
±0.0
|
-1.4
|
-1.1
|
-3.3
|
-0.6
|
Government and parliament
Luís Montenegro
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament
: 230
Government & opposition
Government
: 91
Opposition
: 139
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties
: 70
Right-leaning parties
: 151
Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Portugal
| Score | Institute | Accuracy | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
|
73
|
1.6
|
high
| |
|
73
|
2.1
|
medium
| |
|
73
|
2.1
|
medium
| |
|
72
|
2.0
|
medium
| |
|
66
|
1.8
|
high
| |
| More Institutes |
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.