Norway: Polls and trends for the Norwegian election 2025

Current Election Trend for Norway

H
25.1
Ap
20.9
FrP
17.0
SV
8.7
Sp
6.1
R
5.2
V
5.0
MDG
4.2
KrF
3.9
INP
2.1
Sonst.
1.8
On the rise: Fremskrittspartiet
+2.1 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Høyre
-2.0 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Norway is expected to take place in 2025.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 29.3% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Norway?

In the current election trend in Norway, Høyre leads with 25.1%. This is an increase of +4.7 percentage points since the last election.

Arbeiderpartiet reaches 20.9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.4).

Fremskrittspartiet reaches 17%. This is a significant increase of +5.4 percentage points since the last election.

Sosialistisk Venstreparti lands at 8.7% and gains +1.1 percentage points since the last election.

Senterpartiet reaches 6.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.4).

Rødt reaches 5.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.5 percentage points).

Venstre reaches 5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.4 percentage points).

De Grønne reaches 4.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.3 percentage points).

Kristelig Folkeparti (3.9%) and INP (2.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

1.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from InFact for Nettavisen and Amedia, Opinion, Verian for TV2, Respons Analyse, Norstat and Norfakta for Nationen, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 6064 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Norway, the government from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet would secure 29.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Høyre, Arbeiderpartiet, Fremskrittspartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti, Senterpartiet, Rødt, Venstre and De Grønne reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 77.2% - 22.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Norway

InFact
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
23.5
20
18.8
8.9
6.1
5.1
4.4
4.4
4.4
2.6
1.8
Opinion
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
25.4
22.6
17
7.7
5.6
5.5
5
4.2
3.5
2.1
1.4
Opinion
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
22.2
19.3
16.8
10.9
7.3
6
5.9
3
2.8
5.8

What is the latest poll for Norway?

The latest poll for the election in Norway was published by InFact. The parties achieve the following values: Høyre 23.5%, Arbeiderpartiet 20%, Fremskrittspartiet 18.8%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.9%, Senterpartiet 6.1%, Rødt 5.1%, De Grønne 4.4%, Kristelig Folkeparti 4.4%, Venstre 4.4% and INP 2.6%.

Coalitions

169
SV
15
R
9
Ap
39
V
9
MDG
7
Sp
11
H
47
FrP
32
Majority requires 85 seats
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Senterpartiet
Høyre + Fremskrittspartiet + Venstre
Høyre + Arbeiderpartiet
86
Arbeiderpartiet + Sosialistisk Venstreparti + Senterpartiet + Rødt + Venstre
Arbeiderpartiet + Senterpartiet
50

Which coalitions are currently possible in Norway?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Høyre, Fremskrittspartiet and Senterpartiet and Coalition from Høyre, Fremskrittspartiet and Venstre each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Norway shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Fremskrittspartiet
+2.1 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Høyre
-2.0 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Høyre
Arbeiderpartiet
Fremskrittspartiet
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Senterpartiet
Rødt
Venstre
De Grønne
Kristelig Folkeparti
INP
Show more

Norway — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Norway in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Norway took place on 13.09.2021.

Government and parliament

Jonas Gahr Støre
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 169
Government & opposition
Government : 76
Opposition : 93
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 80
Right-leaning parties : 60

Which parties are in the parliament of Norway?

In the parliament of Norway, there are 169 representatives from 10 parties. 76 representatives are part of the government from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. The opposition from Høyre, Fremskrittspartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti, Rødt, Venstre, De Grønne, Kristelig Folkeparti and Sonstige Parteien has 93 representatives.

80 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 60 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Norway?

Jonas Gahr Støre governs in Norway with a coalition of Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet.

Parliamentary election in Norway 2025

The Parliamentary election in Norway 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Jonas Gahr Støre is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. In the last Parliamentary election in Norway in 2021, Arbeiderpartiet (26.3% - 48 seats), Høyre (20.4% - 36 seats), Senterpartiet (13.5% - 28 seats), Fremskrittspartiet (11.6% - 21 seats), Sosialistisk Venstreparti (7.6% - 13 seats), Rødt (4.7% - 8 seats), Venstre (4.6% - 8 seats), De Grønne (3.9% - 3 seats), Kristelig Folkeparti (3.8% - 3 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (3.6% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 77.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Norway?

The next election in Norway is expected to take place in the year 2025.

Who is the president of Norway?

The head of state of Norway is Jonas Gahr Støre.

Who governs in Norway?

Jonas Gahr Støre governs in Norway with a coalition of Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet.

What is the electoral threshold in Norway?

The electoral threshold in Norway is 4% (only for compensatory mandates).

What is the latest poll for Norway?

The latest poll for the election in Norway was published by InFact. The parties achieve the following values: Høyre 23.5%, Arbeiderpartiet 20%, Fremskrittspartiet 18.8%, Sosialistisk Venstreparti 8.9%, Senterpartiet 6.1%, Rødt 5.1%, De Grønne 4.4%, Kristelig Folkeparti 4.4%, Venstre 4.4% and INP 2.6%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Norway?

In the parliament of Norway, there are 169 representatives from 10 parties. 76 representatives are part of the government from Arbeiderpartiet and Senterpartiet. The opposition from Høyre, Fremskrittspartiet, Sosialistisk Venstreparti, Rødt, Venstre, De Grønne, Kristelig Folkeparti and Sonstige Parteien has 93 representatives.