Germany: Polls and trends for the German election 2029

Current Election Trend for Germany

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Germany, AfD is leading with 25.7%, followed by CDU/CSU with 25.5%, SPD with 14.6%, Grüne with 11.8%, Die Linke with 10.4%, BSW with 3.4% and FDP with 3%. Other parties reach 5.6%.

On the rise: AfD

+1.4 growth in the last 3 months

Trending down: BSW

-0.6 loss in the last 30 days

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2029.

Government might not stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 45.7% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 23.02.2025
AfD
+4.9
Union
-3.0
SPD
-1.8
Grüne
+0.2
Linke
+1.6
BSW
-1.5
FDP
-1.3
Political orientation
AfD
Union
SPD
Grüne
Linke
BSW
FDP
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
AfD
25.7
Union
25.5
SPD
14.6
Grüne
11.8
Linke
10.4
BSW
3.4
FDP
3.0
Others
5.6

Coalitions

Who could enter the Bundestag?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: Die Linke reaches 74 MPs, SPD reaches 105 MPs, Grüne reaches 84 MPs, CDU/CSU reaches 183 MPs and AfD reaches 184 MPs.

Electoral System

The Bundestag has 630 seats, elected through a mixed system of direct and proportional representation. Each voter has two votes: one for the direct candidate in their constituency and one for a party. The crucial vote is the second vote – it determines how many seats a party receives in total. Direct mandates only count if they are supported by the second vote results.

5% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause for the German federal election is 5%, except for parties representing national minorities.

Majority from 316 MPs

To form a government, 316 of 630 MPs are required.
CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne
59.0%
AfD + CDU/CSU
58.3%
CDU/CSU + SPD
45.7%
630
Majority requires 316 seats
Linke
74
11.7%
SPD
105
16.7%
Grüne
84
13.3%
Union
183
29%
AfD
184
29.2%

Latest polls for Germany

Forsa
· 4 days ago
4 days ago
AfD
26
Union
24
SPD
14
Grüne
12
Linke
11
BSW
3
FDP
3
Others
7
INSA
· 4 days ago
4 days ago
AfD
26
Union
25
SPD
15.5
Grüne
11.5
Linke
10.5
BSW
4
FDP
3
Others
4.5
New Ipsos
· 5 days ago
5 days ago
AfD
26
Union
24
SPD
15
Grüne
12
Linke
11
BSW
4
FDP
4
Others
4

Parliamentary Election in Germany 2025

23.02.2025

Parliamentary Election in Germany 2021

26.09.2021

Germany — National parliament voting intention

SPD CDU/CSU Grüne FDP AfD Linke BSW FW Tier Volt PARTEI Basis TT

Polling the states

Parties in Germany

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative
CDU/CSU AfD SPD Grüne Linke FDP Piraten Tier

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
AfD
-0.1
+1.4
+2.1
+7.4
+4.9
CDU/CSU
+0.2
-0.9
-0.9
-7.8
-3.0
SPD
+0.3
+0.2
-0.9
-0.3
-1.8
Grüne
+0.5
+0.1
+0.2
+0.3
+0.2
Die Linke
-0.5
-0.2
+0.3
+7.0
+1.6
BSW
-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
-2.6
-1.5
FDP
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-1.1
-1.3
Show more

Electoral system

The Five Percent Threshold

To enter the Bundestag, a party must achieve at least five percent of the second votes. An exception applies if they win three constituencies directly – then they receive seats according to their share of the votes. This ensures that the parliament remains functional without completely excluding new parties.

630 Seats, Clear Rules – How the Parliament is Formed

The Bundestag consists of 630 representatives. The seats are allocated to the parties based on the share of second votes. Then, it is checked which direct candidates are covered by their party's results. Only those candidates enter the parliament – those with too few second votes remain outside.

Two Votes, One Parliament

In the federal election, everyone has two votes. The first vote goes to the direct candidate in their own constituency, and the second vote goes to a party. The composition of the parliament is determined by the second vote – it establishes how many seats each party receives in total. This system combines personal voting with proportional representation.
Direct Election Members are elected directly by the people.
Mixed Vote The election combines candidate votes and party list votes.
Compensatory System Seats are adjusted so the overall result matches proportional votes.
One Round The election is decided in a single round of voting.
Free Elections are free, fair and competitive.

Government and parliament

Frank-Walter Steinmeier

Head of state

Friedrich Merz

Chancellor
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 630
Government & opposition
Government : 328
Opposition : 302
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 270
Right-leaning parties : 360

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Germany

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
87
Institut Wahlkreisprognose
1.1
low
87
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
1.1
low
87
GMS
1.3
very low
85
Ipsos
0.9
low
85
Infratest dimap
1.5
very low
More Institutes

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
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