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Germany: Polls and trends for the German election 2025

Current Election Trend for Germany

CDU/CSU
30.2
AfD
16.7
SPD
15.3
Grüne
12.8
BSW
6.9
FDP
5.0
Linke
3.1
FW
2.6
Sonst.
7.4
On the rise: BSW
+0.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: SPD
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Germany is expected to take place in 2025.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 38.1% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend for the Bundestag election?

In the current election trend in Germany, CDU/CSU leads with 30.2%. This is a significant increase of +6.1 percentage points since the last election.

AfD reaches 16.7%. This is a significant increase of +6.4 percentage points since the last election.

SPD reaches 15.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-10.4).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 12.8% (-2.0).

BSW reaches 6.9%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

FDP reaches 5%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-6.5).

Die Linke (3.1%) and Freie Wähler (2.6%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

7.4% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSA for BILD, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF-Politbarometer, Verian for FOCUS, Forsa for RTL / n-tv, Ipsos, YouGov, Infratest dimap for ARD, Institut Wahlkreisprognose, Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and GMS, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 15798 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Germany, the government from SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP would secure 38.1% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: CDU/CSU, AfD, SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, BSW and FDP reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 76.6% - 23.4% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Germany

What is the latest poll for Germany?

The latest poll for the election in Germany was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 11%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%.

Coalitions

630
SPD
111
Grüne
93
BSW
50
FDP
36
CDU/CSU
219
AfD
121
Majority requires 316 seats
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + BSW
362
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
348
CDU/CSU + AfD
340
CDU/CSU + SPD
330
CDU/CSU + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
312
SPD + Bündnis 90/Die Grünen + FDP
240

Which coalitions are currently possible in Germany?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU/CSU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and BSW, Coalition from CDU/CSU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP, Coalition from CDU/CSU and AfD and Coalition from CDU/CSU and SPD each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Germany shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Polling the states

Information about the Strongest Parties in the Federal States

The map of the polling results for the federal states shows the strongest party in the election trend of each respective state. The colors of the parties are updated daily based on the latest poll results.

CDU currently leads in the election trend of 8 federal states: Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Hesse, Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt and Schleswig-Holstein.

CSU currently leads in the election trend of 1 federal states: Bavaria.

AfD currently leads in the election trend of 4 federal states: Brandenburg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Saxony and Thuringia.

SPD currently leads in the election trend of 3 federal states: Bremen, Hamburg and Saarland.

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: BSW
+0.8 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: SPD
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
CDU/CSU
AfD
SPD
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
BSW
FDP
Die Linke
Freie Wähler
Show more

Germany — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Germany in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Germany took place on 26.09.2021.

Government and parliament

Frank-Walter Steinmeier
Head of state
Olaf Scholz
Chancellor
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 735
Government & opposition
Government : 416
Opposition : 319
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 364
Right-leaning parties : 371

Which parties are in the parliament of Germany?

In the parliament of Germany, there are 735 representatives from 7 parties. 416 representatives are part of the government from SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP. The opposition from CDU/CSU, AfD, Die Linke and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 319 representatives.

364 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 371 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Germany?

Olaf Scholz governs in Germany with a coalition of SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP. The head of state is Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Parliamentary election in Germany 2025

The Parliamentary election in Germany 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Olaf Scholz is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, FDP and SPD. In the last Parliamentary election in Germany in 2021, SPD (25.7% - 206 seats), CDU/CSU (24.1% - 197 seats), Bündnis 90/Die Grünen (14.8% - 118 seats), FDP (11.5% - 92 seats), AfD (10.3% - 82 seats), Die Linke (4.9% - 39 seats) and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband (0.1% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 76.6%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Germany?

The next election in Germany is expected to take place in the year 2025.

Who is the president of Germany?

The head of state of Germany is Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

Who governs in Germany?

Olaf Scholz governs in Germany with a coalition of SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP.

What is the electoral threshold in Germany?

The electoral threshold for the German federal election is 5%, except for parties representing national minorities.

What is the latest poll for Germany?

The latest poll for the election in Germany was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU/CSU 31%, AfD 17%, SPD 16%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 11%, BSW 7%, FDP 5%, Die Linke 3% and Freie Wähler 2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Germany?

In the parliament of Germany, there are 735 representatives from 7 parties. 416 representatives are part of the government from SPD, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and FDP. The opposition from CDU/CSU, AfD, Die Linke and Südschleswigscher Wählerverband has 319 representatives.