Belgium: Polls and trends for the Belgian election 2024

Current Election Trend for Belgium

VB
14.9
PVDA
13.8
N-VA
12.2
CD&V
9.6
VO
9.5
PS
8.9
MR
8.2
Groen
6.5
ECO
5.7
OVLD
4.6
LE
3.6
DéFI
2.1
Sonst.
0.8
Next election: 09.06.2024
The next general election in Belgium will be held in 100.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 54.4% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Belgium?

In the current election trend in Belgium, VB leads with 14.9%. This is an increase of +2.9 percentage points since the last election.

PVDA/PTB reaches 13.8%. This is a significant increase of +5.2 percentage points since the last election.

N-VA experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 12.2% (-3.8).

CD&V reaches 9.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).

Vooruit lands at 9.5% and gains +2.8 percentage points since the last election.

PS reaches 8.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.6 percentage points).

MR reaches 8.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.6 percentage points).

Groen reaches 6.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.4 percentage points).

Ecolo reaches 5.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.4 percentage points).

OVLD (4.6%), LE (3.6%) and DéFI (2.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Belgium, the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen would secure 54.4% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 9 parties could enter parliament: VB, PVDA/PTB, N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, PS, MR, Groen and Ecolo reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 88.4% - 11.6% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for Wallonia

PS
24.2
MR
19.9
PVDA
17.7
ECO
13.8
LE
10.4
CD&V
9.8
DéFI
4.1
Sonst.
0.1
Wallonia Kantar
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
24.3
19.9
18.4
13.8
13.2
4.1
6.3
Wallonia Ipsos
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
23.9
20
14
14
13.8
3.9
10.4
Wallonia Kantar
· 4 months ago
4 months ago
Open Details
27.2
20.6
19.2
11.6
11.1
4.5
5.8

Current Election Trend for Brussels

PVDA
20.6
MR
17.9
Groen
15.2
ECO
12.5
PS
11.4
VO
10.5
DéFI
8.0
LE
2.9
CD&V
2.3
VB
0.9
N-VA
0.0
OVLD
0.0
Sonst.
0.7
Brussels Kantar
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
20.8
19.5
17.9
14.8
7.8
6.6
5.2
3.8
1.9
1.7
Brussels Ipsos
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
19.3
18.1
16.8
15.7
9.1
7.2
13.8
Brussels Kantar
· 4 months ago
4 months ago
Open Details
19.7
18.8
16.3
13
6.9
5.3
5.1
4.2
4.2
3.3
1.3
0.8
1.1

Current Election Trend for Flanders

VB
25.6
N-VA
21.0
VO
14.5
CD&V
10.8
PVDA
10.4
Groen
8.5
OVLD
8.0
Sonst.
1.2
Flanders Kantar
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
25.5
20.6
14.7
10.9
10.5
8.7
1.1
Flanders Ipsos
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
25.1
22
13.8
11.7
9.7
9.2
7.1
1.4
Flanders iVox
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
26.5
22
14.3
11.6
8.8
8.7
7.1

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Belgium
· 22 / 720 seats
14.9
13.8
12.2
9.6
9.5
8.9
8.2
6.5
5.7
4.6
3.6
2.1
0.8

Coalitions

N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + PS + MR
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + MR + Groen
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + MR + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + PS + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + PS + Groen
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + MR + Ecolo
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + MR + Ecolo
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + MR + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + MR + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + PS + Ecolo
N-VA + CD&V + PS + MR + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + PS + MR + Groen
N-VA + Vooruit + PS + MR + Groen
N-VA + Vooruit + PS + MR + Groen
N-VA + CD&V + Vooruit + MR + Ecolo
VB + N-VA + CD&V + MR
VB + N-VA + CD&V + MR
N-VA + CD&V + PS + MR + Ecolo
N-VA + Vooruit + PS + MR + Ecolo
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + Groen + Ecolo
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + PS + Groen + Ecolo
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + MR + Groen + Ecolo
PVDA/PTB + Vooruit + MR + Groen + Ecolo
Show more

Which coalitions are currently possible in Belgium?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, PS and MR, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, Vooruit, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, Vooruit, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, PS and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, PS and Groen, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, Vooruit, PS, MR and Ecolo, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, Vooruit, PS, MR and Ecolo, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, PS and Ecolo, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, Vooruit, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, Vooruit, PS, MR and Groen, Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, Vooruit, MR and Ecolo, Coalition from VB, N-VA, CD&V and MR, Coalition from VB, N-VA, CD&V and MR and Coalition from N-VA, CD&V, PS, MR and Ecolo each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Belgium shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
VB
PS
N-VA
MR
PVDA/PTB
Vooruit
Ecolo
LE
CD&V
Groen
OVLD
DéFI
Show more

Belgium — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Belgium in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Belgium took place on 26.05.2019.

Government and parliament

Philippe I
Head of state
Alexander De Croo
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 150
Government & opposition
Government : 88
Opposition : 62
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 62
Right-leaning parties : 60

Which parties are in the parliament of Belgium?

In the parliament of Belgium, there are 150 representatives from 12 parties. 88 representatives are part of the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The opposition from N-VA, VB, PVDA/PTB, LE and DéFI has 62 representatives.

62 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 60 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Belgium?

Alexander De Croo governs in Belgium with a coalition of PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The head of state is Philippe I.

Parliamentary election in Belgium 2024

The Parliamentary election in Belgium 2024 will take place on 09.06.2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Alexander De Croo is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of CD&V, OVLD, Vooruit, Groen, PS, MR and Ecolo. In the last Parliamentary election in Belgium in 2019, N-VA (16% - 25 seats), VB (12% - 18 seats), PS (9.5% - 20 seats), CD&V (8.9% - 12 seats), PVDA/PTB (8.6% - 12 seats), OVLD (8.5% - 12 seats), MR (7.6% - 14 seats), Vooruit (6.7% - 9 seats), Ecolo (6.1% - 13 seats), Groen (6.1% - 8 seats), LE (3.7% - 5 seats) and DéFI (2.2% - 2 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 88.4%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Belgium?

The next election in Belgium is on 09.06.2024.

Who is the president of Belgium?

The head of state of Belgium is Philippe I.

Who governs in Belgium?

Alexander De Croo governs in Belgium with a coalition of PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen.

What is the electoral threshold in Belgium?

The electoral threshold in Belgium is 5% at the constituency level.

Which parties are in the parliament of Belgium?

In the parliament of Belgium, there are 150 representatives from 12 parties. 88 representatives are part of the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The opposition from N-VA, VB, PVDA/PTB, LE and DéFI has 62 representatives.