Belgium Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Belgium's economy is navigating through turbulent waters. Inflation remained at 3.0 percent (HICP) in June 2026, driven by high energy prices, and continues to be above the European Central Bank's target and the Eurozone average. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, particularly the Middle East conflict and the associated oil price shocks, are noticeably dampening economic activity. The employers' association FEB-VBO reports declining orders and profitability in many sectors, and the National Bank of Belgium has revised its economic growth forecast for 2026 down to a meager 0.6 percent. This combination of factors is weighing on household purchasing power. Politically, the government is grappling with a structural budget deficit. Finance Minister Vincent Van Peteghem called for massive additional savings of up to 14 billion Euros by 2029 in June. The debate over measures like expanding 'Flexi-Jobs' or planned cuts to pensions and social benefits, which are sharply criticized by trade unions, dominates the domestic political scene. The ongoing uncertainty about budget consolidation and the external dependence on energy imports are therefore burdening not only Belgian citizens but also the stability of the entire European economy.

Belgium's migration policy is once again under scrutiny after the Council of State on July 8th overturned a controversial directive from federal Asylum and Migration Minister Anneleen Van Bossuyt. The measure aimed to limit material support for asylum seekers who had already received protection status in another EU country – a practice introduced after the EU Migration Pact came into effect in mid-June. Human rights organizations successfully argued that automatically equating this group with subsequent applicants violates current law. This judicial intervention highlights the ongoing tension between the restrictive approach of the N-VA minister, who also pushes for internal border controls (extended until at least the end of July) to curb irregular migration, and the judiciary, which insists on adherence to legal standards. This debate shapes Belgium's role in the European migration landscape and influences the nation's identity in dealing with immigration.

Belgium is repositioning itself in a turbulent world. The country is making significant investments in its defense: Currently, it is upgrading its air defense alongside the Netherlands for 3.1 billion Euros, backed by a new national defense plan and a comprehensive strategy to strengthen its role within NATO. Simultaneously, European interests are clashing sharply with unilateral US actions: Brussels criticizes the toll announced by the US in the Strait of Hormuz as 'modern piracy,' which threatens Europe's economy. These tensions shape Belgium's geopolitical agenda, while it also advocates for crisis management at the EU level and grapples with the implementation of EU law.

Belgium's federal government is grappling with a deep paralysis, facing what's been called a 'budgetary black hole.' An anticipated deficit of 25.68 billion euros by year-end is severely hindering decision-making. Coalition parties are at a standstill, linking budget issues with controversial ethical topics, making an agreement before the summer break seem unlikely. This internal discord reveals a fragmented political culture and undermines the government's ability to act, even on urgent challenges like criticism over its response to the recent heatwave and delays in the EU climate plan.

Belgium is making a remarkable U-turn in its energy policy: Prime Minister Bart de Wever's government is actively negotiating the nationalization of the country's nuclear power plants with operator Engie. The goal is to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels, marking a clear break from the originally planned nuclear phase-out, with completion aimed for October 1, 2026. At the same time, Belgium is facing criticism for failing to submit its social climate plan to the EU on time. This blocks access to 2.2 billion euros from the European Social Climate Fund, money intended to support vulnerable households in the transition to clean energy. This oversight stems from a lack of agreement between federal and regional authorities, jeopardizing the country's climate goals and highlighting the need for increased efforts in renewable energy and energy efficiency.

Belgium is grappling with rising intergenerational tensions, sparked by far-reaching reforms to its social security system. The recently passed pension reform by the De Wever government, which includes raising the retirement age to 67 by 2030 and tightening conditions for the minimum pension, is dividing the country. While the government aims to ensure financial sustainability, trade unions and women's associations criticize that these measures primarily disadvantage women and younger workers, reduce purchasing power, and jeopardize social peace. The impact of the reform is already visible in the labor market: employment among older people is increasing, while young workers are coming under growing pressure.

Students in the Wallonia-Brussels Federation are facing a noticeable financial strain: Starting next academic year, tuition fees for 58 percent of university students will rise to as much as 1,194 Euros. This increase is part of a controversial austerity package from the French Community government, aiming to save approximately 300 million Euros in the French-speaking education system. These measures, which also include increased working hours for teachers and reduced sick leave benefits, have met with strong opposition from students, teachers, and unions. Alongside this, rules for non-EU students have become stricter since June 1, 2026: They must now complete their studies faster and can no longer indefinitely extend visas, a step taken to prevent abuse of student status. In Flanders, on the other hand, a planned scholarship reform that could make higher education more difficult for 20,000 students has been postponed for now. The housing market for young people remains tight, exacerbated by new energy performance certificate regulations for student housing, which came into effect on July 8, 2026, and could influence rental costs. While youth unemployment is slightly decreasing, inflation, which stood at 3.4 percent in June 2026, continues to weigh on purchasing power.

Thousands of single-parent families in Belgium face an uncertain future: Starting in July, around 9,225 households, 85% of which are led by mothers, will lose their entitlement to unemployment benefits. This drastic cut, resulting from a comprehensive government unemployment reform, limits the benefit period to a maximum of 24 months, pushing many into social integration programs. The measure significantly increases the risk of poverty, as nearly half of the children in single-parent households are already at risk of poverty. In response, a new support fund for single parents, providing 35 million Euros, will come into effect on July 1st to secure those who do not receive alimony. However, critics warn that this will barely cushion the far-reaching social consequences of the reform.

Pensioners in Belgium are facing a new reality: as of June 2026, a pension reform limits the indexation of higher pensions. Pensions above 2,000 euros gross per month will see a cap of a maximum of 40 euros gross during two consecutive index adjustments. This measure was politically approved at the end of May 2026 and published in the Official Gazette on June 1st, as part of broader austerity measures and to ensure the system's sustainability. At the same time, a new pension bonus starting in 2026 is intended to reward those who work longer, while a penalty from 2027 will make early retirement less attractive. The government is responding to budget pressure and demographic challenges, which, however, leads to uncertainty and directly impacts the life planning of many older individuals.

Belgium's middle class and workers are feeling the squeeze from the government's drastic austerity measures: The federal government has agreed on an additional ten billion euros in savings by the end of its term to bring the budget deficit below the EU limit. These unprecedented cuts coincide with persistently high inflation of 3.4 percent in June 2026, which is especially driving up energy and fuel prices. The situation is made worse by a controversial VAT reform that is meeting widespread opposition and further increasing the cost of living for many households. While the government aims for fiscal stability, unions are demanding protection for purchasing power and the taxation of wealth, as citizens bear the brunt of the crisis.

Belgian self-employed individuals and entrepreneurs are navigating significant tax reforms. From July 2026, the withholding tax on dividends will increase from 15% to 18%. Meanwhile, the Chamber of Representatives has passed a law that eliminates mandatory tax prepayments for sole proprietors and gradually raises the tax-free allowance to €15,600 by 2030. These federal measures aim to make work more profitable, yet many SMEs are already struggling with declining profitability and are delaying investments. Additionally, regional adjustments, such as the 2.5% indexation of cadastral income for property owners, are increasing ongoing costs. While policymakers are trying to create incentives, they are encountering an economic climate marked by uncertainty, which is hindering growth.

Belgium's new penal code, fully in effect since 2026, significantly tightens the legal framework: a 'discriminatory motive' is now considered an aggravating circumstance for *all* offenses, explicitly including those based on sexual orientation and ethnic origin. This groundbreaking reform, which emerged from years of political debate about equality and protection against prejudice-motivated crime, paradoxically coincides with a societal development. While lawmakers are strengthening legal tools, LGBTQ+ individuals and minorities are experiencing an increase in hate speech and violence in their daily lives. In parallel, the government has tightened its migration policy, for example, through increased fees for citizenship and more restrictive family reunification, measures that were recently discussed in a report in July 2026. This discrepancy between comprehensive legal protection and a noticeable sense of insecurity shapes the lives of many affected individuals.

Belgium is loosening its expat tax rules. As of July 1, 2026, the minimum salary threshold for the special tax regime drops from 75,000 to 70,000 Euros, and the tax-free expense allowance increases to 35% with no upper limit. These changes, effective retroactively from 2025, aim to make Belgium more appealing to international skilled workers. At the same time, the government is tightening residency rules for EU job seekers; they must now prove realistic job prospects to secure their right to stay. For non-EU workers, work permit applications have been digital since May 2026. A new bill offers exploited migrant workers 180 days instead of 90 to find a new job after losing their previous one. This policy balances promoting skilled immigration with more restrictive measures for other migrant groups, reinforced by the EU Migration Pact.