Belgium: Polls and trends for the Belgian election 2024

In the current election trend in Belgium, VB leads with 15.4%. This is an increase of +3.4 percentage points since the last election.

PVDA/PTB lands at 13.3% and gains +4.7 percentage points since the last election.

N-VA experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 11.9% (-4.1).

PS reaches 8.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.7 percentage points).

MR reaches 8.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.6 percentage points).

Vooruit reaches 7.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+1.0 percentage points).

CD&V experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7.5% (-1.4).

OVLD reaches 7.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).

Groen reaches 5.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.9 percentage points).

Ecolo (4.9%), LE (4.6%) and DéFI (2.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

3.1% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

If there were an election this Sunday in Belgium, the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen would secure 52.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

In the current election trend, 9 parties could enter parliament: VB, PVDA/PTB, N-VA, PS, MR, Vooruit, CD&V, OVLD and Groen reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 88.4% - 11.6% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR, CD&V and OVLD, Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR, CD&V and OVLD, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, Vooruit and OVLD, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, Vooruit and OVLD, Coalition from VB, PVDA/PTB, MR and OVLD, Coalition from VB, PVDA/PTB, MR and OVLD, Coalition from N-VA, PS, MR, Vooruit and OVLD, Coalition from N-VA, PS, MR, Vooruit and CD&V, Coalition from N-VA, PS, MR, CD&V and OVLD, Coalition from N-VA, PS, Vooruit, CD&V and OVLD, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, Vooruit and Groen, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, Vooruit and Groen, Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR and OVLD, Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR and CD&V, Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR and OVLD, Coalition from VB, N-VA, MR and CD&V, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, OVLD and Groen, Coalition from PVDA/PTB, PS, MR, OVLD and Groen and Coalition from N-VA, MR, Vooruit, CD&V and OVLD each achieve a majority in parliament.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Belgium shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Belgium in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Belgium took place on 26.05.2019.

In the parliament of Belgium, there are 150 representatives from 12 parties. 88 representatives are part of the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The opposition from N-VA, VB, PVDA/PTB, LE and DéFI has 62 representatives.

62 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 60 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Alexander De Croo governs in Belgium with a coalition of PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The head of state is Philippe I.

The next election in Belgium is on 09.06.2024.

The head of state of Belgium is Philippe I.

Alexander De Croo governs in Belgium with a coalition of PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen.

The electoral threshold in Belgium is 5% at the constituency level.

In the parliament of Belgium, there are 150 representatives from 12 parties. 88 representatives are part of the government from PS, CD&V, OVLD, MR, Vooruit, Ecolo and Groen. The opposition from N-VA, VB, PVDA/PTB, LE and DéFI has 62 representatives.