Bulgaria: Polls and trends for the Bulgarian election 2027

Current Election Trend for Bulgaria

GERB
27.4
PP/DB
16.2
V
15.0
DPS
14.6
BSP
9.0
ITN
5.1
SB
2.4
SBG
2.4
Sonst.
7.9
On the rise: GERB
+1.6 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: PP/DB
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Bulgaria is expected to take place in 2027.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 31.4% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Bulgaria?

In the current election trend in Bulgaria, GERB leads with 27.4%. This is an increase of +2.0 percentage points since the last election.

PP/DB reaches 16.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.3).

Vŭzrazhdane lands at 15% and gains +1.4 percentage points since the last election.

DPS lands at 14.6% and gains +1.4 percentage points since the last election.

BSP reaches 9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.4 percentage points).

ITN lands at 5.1% and gains +1.2 percentage points since the last election.

SB (2.4%) and SBG (2.4%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

7.9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Mediana, Market LINKS, Gallup, Trend, Exacta and Alpha Research, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 5815 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Bulgaria, the government from GERB would secure 31.4% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: GERB, PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 0% - 100% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Bulgaria
· 17 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
25.8
18.3
14.6
14.4
8.4
4.7
1.9
1.5
10.4

Latest polls for Bulgaria

New Mediana
· 6 days ago
6 days ago
Open Details
27.5
15.7
14.2
13.7
9
6.2
3.1
2.9
2.7
1.3
1.2
2.5
Market LINKS
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
29.5
20.1
15
14.7
9.2
3.6
2
1.6
4.3
Gallup
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
26.5
16.4
15.4
15.1
8.4
4.7
2.5
1.5
1.1
8.4

What is the latest poll for Bulgaria?

The latest poll for the election in Bulgaria was published by Mediana. The parties achieve the following values: GERB 27.5%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.7%, DPS 14.2%, PP/DB 13.7%, BSP 9%, ITN 6.2%, SB 3.1%, Levitsata 2.9%, SBG 2.7%, VMRO 1.3% and BV 1.2%.

Coalitions

240
BSP
24
ITN
14
DPS
40
GERB
76
PP/DB
45
V
41
Majority requires 121 seats
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS
157
GERB + DPS + BSP
140
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
131
GERB + DPS + ITN
130
PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane + DPS
126
PP/DB + DPS + BSP + ITN
GERB + PP/DB
121

Which coalitions are currently possible in Bulgaria?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from GERB, Vŭzrazhdane and DPS, Coalition from GERB, DPS and BSP, Coalition from GERB, Vŭzrazhdane and ITN, Coalition from GERB, DPS and ITN, Coalition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane and DPS, Coalition from PP/DB, DPS, BSP and ITN and Coalition from GERB and PP/DB each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Bulgaria shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: GERB
+1.6 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: PP/DB
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
GERB
PP/DB
Vŭzrazhdane
DPS
BSP
ITN
SB
SBG
Show more

Bulgaria — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Bulgaria in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Bulgaria took place on 02.04.2023.

Government and parliament

Rumen Radev
Head of state
Galab Donev
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 240
Government & opposition
Government : 69
Opposition : 171
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 23
Right-leaning parties : 170

Which parties are in the parliament of Bulgaria?

In the parliament of Bulgaria, there are 240 representatives from 6 parties. 69 representatives are part of the government from GERB. The opposition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN has 171 representatives.

23 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 170 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Bulgaria?

Galab Donev governs in Bulgaria with a coalition of GERB. The head of state is Rumen Radev.

Parliamentary election in Bulgaria 2027

The Parliamentary election in Bulgaria 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Galab Donev is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of GERB, DB and PP. In the last Parliamentary election in Bulgaria in 2023, GERB (25.4% - 69 seats), PP/DB (23.5% - 64 seats), Vŭzrazhdane (13.6% - 37 seats), DPS (13.2% - 36 seats), BSP (8.6% - 23 seats) and ITN (3.9% - 11 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 0%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Bulgaria?

The next election in Bulgaria is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Bulgaria?

The head of state of Bulgaria is Rumen Radev.

Who governs in Bulgaria?

Galab Donev governs in Bulgaria with a coalition of GERB.

What is the electoral threshold in Bulgaria?

The electoral threshold in Bulgaria is 4%.

What is the latest poll for Bulgaria?

The latest poll for the election in Bulgaria was published by Mediana. The parties achieve the following values: GERB 27.5%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.7%, DPS 14.2%, PP/DB 13.7%, BSP 9%, ITN 6.2%, SB 3.1%, Levitsata 2.9%, SBG 2.7%, VMRO 1.3% and BV 1.2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Bulgaria?

In the parliament of Bulgaria, there are 240 representatives from 6 parties. 69 representatives are part of the government from GERB. The opposition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN has 171 representatives.