Bulgaria: Polls and trends for the Bulgarian election 2027

Current Election Trend for Bulgaria

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Bulgaria, GERB is leading with 24.8%, followed by PP with 19.7%, DPS with 13.8%, Vŭzrazhdane with 13.3%, MECh with 7.2%, BSP with 6.9%, Velichie with 3.8%, ITN with 3.6% and APS with 1.6%. Other parties reach 5.3%.

On the rise: PP

+7.3 growth in the last 3 months

Trending down: APS

-4.6 loss in the last 3 months

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Bulgaria is expected to take place in 2027.

Government might not stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 37.1% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
GERB
-0.7
PP
New
DPS
+2.6
V
+0.4
MECh
+2.8
BSP
-0.4
VEL
-0.1
ITN
-3.0
APS
-5.6
Political orientation
GERB
PP
DPS
V
MECh
BSP
VEL
ITN
APS
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
GERB
24.8
PP
19.7
DPS
13.8
V
13.3
MECh
7.2
BSP
6.9
VEL
3.8
ITN
3.6
APS
1.6
Others
5.3

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: BSP reaches 19 MPs, PP reaches 55 MPs, DPS reaches 39 MPs, GERB reaches 70 MPs, MECh reaches 20 MPs and Vŭzrazhdane reaches 37 MPs.

Electoral System

The Bulgarian Parliament has 240 seats. The distribution is based on proportional representation with a 4% threshold. Coalitions of national minority parties are exempt from this threshold. Seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method across 31 electoral districts.

4% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause in Bulgaria is 4%.

Majority from 121 MPs

To form a government, 121 of 240 MPs are required.
GERB + DPS + Vŭzrazhdane
60.8%
PP + DPS + Vŭzrazhdane
54.6%
GERB + DPS + MECh
53.8%
GERB + DPS + BSP
53.3%
GERB + PP
52.1%
PP + DPS + BSP
47.1%
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
19
7.9%
PP
55
22.9%
DPS
39
16.3%
GERB
70
29.2%
MECh
20
8.3%
V
37
15.4%

Latest polls for Bulgaria

Market LINKS
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
GERB
24.1
PP
20.8
V
13.2
DPS
12.9
MECh
7.5
BSP
6.7
VEL
3.7
ITN
3.1
APS
1.7
Others
6.3
Gallup
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
GERB
28.3
DPS
18.1
PP
14.4
V
13.8
BSP
7.9
ITN
6
MECh
5.9
VEL
4.4
APS
1.2
Gallup
· 9 months ago
9 months ago
GERB
27.8
V
13.2
DPS
13.1
PP
12.4
BSP
8.6
APS
6.2
ITN
5.5
MECh
4.9
VEL
4
Others
4.3

Parliamentary Election in Bulgaria 2024

27.10.2024

Parliamentary Election in Bulgaria 2024

09.06.2024

Bulgaria — National parliament voting intention

GERB PP DPS V MECh BSP VEL ITN APS PP/DB SB DPS-NN SBG L BV DB IS.BG VMRO Volya ABV OP

Parties in Bulgaria

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative
GERB DPS BSP

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
GERB
±0.0
-3.0
-3.0
-0.7
-0.7
PP
±0.0
+7.3
+7.3
±0.0
+19.7
DPS
±0.0
+0.7
+0.7
+2.6
+2.6
Vŭzrazhdane
±0.0
+0.1
+0.1
+0.4
+0.4
MECh
±0.0
+2.3
+2.3
+2.8
+2.8
BSP
±0.0
-1.7
-1.7
-0.4
-0.4
Velichie
±0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
ITN
±0.0
-1.9
-1.9
-3.0
-3.0
APS
±0.0
-4.6
-4.6
-5.6
-5.6
Show more

Electoral system

240 seats, 31 districts: This is how Bulgaria's electoral system works

Bulgaria elects its Parliament through a pure proportional representation system. The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected every four years in 31 electoral districts. A 4% threshold applies - those who receive fewer votes do not enter Parliament. Seats are distributed using the D'Hondt method, which slightly favors larger parties.

Minority bonus: These parties bypass the 4% threshold

A unique feature: Parties and coalitions of national minorities are exempt from the threshold. This allows smaller groups, such as the Turkish minority, to enter Parliament even with less than four percent of the votes. This regulation aims to ensure political participation for all population groups in this multi-ethnic country.

Electoral district puzzle: From Sofia to the smallest mountain village

The 31 electoral districts vary significantly in size: While Sofia, with over a million residents, provides 25 representatives, the smallest district sends only four deputies. The district division is based on the administrative boundaries of the regions. Interestingly, Bulgarians abroad form their own electoral district and can cast their votes in over 60 countries.
Direct Election Members are elected directly by the people.
Party List Vote Voters choose between party lists instead of individuals.
Proportional System Seats are distributed in proportion to votes received.
One Round The election is decided in a single round of voting.
Partly Free Elections take place but with major restrictions.

Government and parliament

Rumen Radev

Head of state

Galab Donev

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 240
Government & opposition
Government : 107
Opposition : 133
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 20
Right-leaning parties : 153

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Bulgaria

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
61
Exacta
1.3
low
60
Alpha Research
2.3
medium
60
Trend
2.6
low
59
Gallup
2.6
low
56
Market LINKS
2.3
high
More Institutes

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
How to embed the election trend on your website:
  1. Copy code below
  2. Paste code on your website
  3. Done!
Copy code
Copied!