Sweden: Polls and trends for the Swedish election 2026

Current Election Trend for Sweden

S
35.7
SD
21.3
M
18.0
V
7.6
C
4.4
MP
4.3
KD
3.5
L
3.2
Sonst.
2.0
Next election: 2026
The next parliamentary election in Sweden is expected to take place in 2026.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 19.7% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Sweden?

In the current election trend in Sweden, Socialdemokraterna leads with 35.7%. This is a significant increase of +5.4 percentage points since the last election.

Sverigedemokraterna reaches 21.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

Moderaterna experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 18% (-1.1).

Vänsterpartiet reaches 7.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

Centerpartiet experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 4.4% (-2.3).

Miljöpartiet reaches 4.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.8 percentage points).

Kristdemokraterna (3.5%) and Liberalerna (3.2%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

2% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Demoskop for Aftonbladet, Verian for SVT, Indikator Opinion, Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter, SKOP and Novus for Svenska Dagbladet, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 13772 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Sweden, the government from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna would secure 19.7% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: Socialdemokraterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Moderaterna, Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet and Miljöpartiet reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 81.3% - 18.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Sweden
· 21 / 720 seats
35.7
21.3
18
7.6
4.4
4.3
3.5
3.2

Latest polls for Sweden

Demoskop
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
36.6
21.1
18.6
6.6
4.2
4
3.4
2.8
2.7
Verian
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
Open Details
35.7
21.4
17.5
7.8
4.5
4.3
3.6
3.4
1.8
Indikator Opinion
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
36.6
21.1
17.3
8.2
4.5
4.5
3.2
3.1
1.5

What is the latest poll for Sweden?

The latest poll for the election in Sweden was published by Demoskop. The parties achieve the following values: Socialdemokraterna 36.6%, Sverigedemokraterna 21.1%, Moderaterna 18.6%, Vänsterpartiet 6.6%, Miljöpartiet 4.2%, Centerpartiet 4%, Kristdemokraterna 3.4% and Liberalerna 2.8%.

Coalitions

Socialdemokraterna + Moderaterna
58.8
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Centerpartiet
52.2
Socialdemokraterna + Vänsterpartiet + Miljöpartiet
52.1

Which coalitions are currently possible in Sweden?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Socialdemokraterna and Moderaterna, Coalition from Socialdemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet and Centerpartiet and Coalition from Socialdemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet and Miljöpartiet each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Sweden shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Liberalerna
+0.6 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: Socialdemokraterna
-1.0 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Socialdemokraterna
Sverigedemokraterna
Moderaterna
Vänsterpartiet
Centerpartiet
Miljöpartiet
Kristdemokraterna
Liberalerna
Show more

Sweden — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Sweden in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Sweden took place on 11.09.2022.

Government and parliament

Carl XVI. Gustaf
Head of state
Ulf Kristersson
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 349
Government & opposition
Government : 103
Opposition : 246
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 149
Right-leaning parties : 176

Which parties are in the parliament of Sweden?

In the parliament of Sweden, there are 349 representatives from 8 parties. 103 representatives are part of the government from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. The opposition from Socialdemokraterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet and Miljöpartiet has 246 representatives.

149 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 176 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Sweden?

Ulf Kristersson governs in Sweden with a coalition of Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. The head of state is Carl XVI. Gustaf.

Parliamentary election in Sweden 2026

The Parliamentary election in Sweden 2026 will probably take place in 2026. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Ulf Kristersson is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. In the last Parliamentary election in Sweden in 2022, Socialdemokraterna (30.3% - 107 seats), Sverigedemokraterna (20.5% - 73 seats), Moderaterna (19.1% - 68 seats), Vänsterpartiet (6.8% - 24 seats), Centerpartiet (6.7% - 24 seats), Kristdemokraterna (5.3% - 19 seats), Miljöpartiet (5.1% - 18 seats) and Liberalerna (4.6% - 16 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 81.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Sweden?

The next election in Sweden is expected to take place in the year 2026.

Who is the president of Sweden?

The head of state of Sweden is Carl XVI. Gustaf.

Who governs in Sweden?

Ulf Kristersson governs in Sweden with a coalition of Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna.

What is the electoral threshold in Sweden?

The electoral threshold in Sweden is 4% (or 12% in one constituency).

What is the latest poll for Sweden?

The latest poll for the election in Sweden was published by Demoskop. The parties achieve the following values: Socialdemokraterna 36.6%, Sverigedemokraterna 21.1%, Moderaterna 18.6%, Vänsterpartiet 6.6%, Miljöpartiet 4.2%, Centerpartiet 4%, Kristdemokraterna 3.4% and Liberalerna 2.8%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Sweden?

In the parliament of Sweden, there are 349 representatives from 8 parties. 103 representatives are part of the government from Moderaterna, Kristdemokraterna and Liberalerna. The opposition from Socialdemokraterna, Sverigedemokraterna, Vänsterpartiet, Centerpartiet and Miljöpartiet has 246 representatives.