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Montenegro: Polls and trends for the Montenegrin election 2027

Current Election Trend for Montenegro

PES
26.3
DPS
26.0
NSD
11.3
DCG
10.0
BS
5.3
DNP
4.2
URA
3.4
SDP
2.3
SNP
2.2
SD
2.2
Sonst.
6.8
On the rise: NSD
+3.1 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: BS
-1.5 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Montenegro is expected to take place in 2027.

Who is leading in the election trend in Montenegro?

In the current election trend in Montenegro, PES leads with 26.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).

DPS lands at 26% and gains +2.8 percentage points since the last election.

NSD reaches 11.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

DCG reaches 10%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

BS experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 5.3% (-1.8).

DNP reaches 4.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

URA reaches 3.4%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

SDP (2.3%), SNP (2.2%) and SD (2.2%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

6.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from CeDem, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1007 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Montenegro, the government from would secure 0% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 7 parties could enter parliament: PES, DPS, NSD, DCG, BS, DNP and URA reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 56.2% - 43.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Montenegro

CeDem
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
26.3
26
11.3
10
5.3
4.2
3.4
2.3
2.2
2.2
6.8
CeDem
· 5 months ago
5 months ago
Open Details
24.3
23.9
10.9
10
7
5.7
3.9
3
2.8
2.5
1.8
4.2
NSPM
· 6 months ago
6 months ago
Open Details
28
19.6
16.5
9.5
6.4
6
2.2
2.1
2.1
1.6
1.1
4.9

What is the latest poll for Montenegro?

The latest poll for the election in Montenegro was published by CeDem. The parties achieve the following values: PES 26.3%, DPS 26%, NSD 11.3%, DCG 10%, BS 5.3%, DNP 4.2%, URA 3.4%, SDP 2.3%, SD 2.2% and SNP 2.2%.

Coalitions

81
DPS
25
URA
3
PES
25
DNP
3
DCG
10
BS
4
NSD
11
Majority requires 41 seats
PES + DPS
50
PES + NSD + DCG
PES + NSD + BS + DNP
PES + DCG + BS + DNP
DPS + DCG + BS + DNP
PES + DCG + BS + URA
DPS + DCG + BS + URA
PES + DCG + DNP + URA
DPS + DCG + DNP + URA
PES + NSD + BS

Which coalitions are currently possible in Montenegro?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from PES and DPS, Coalition from PES, NSD and DCG, Coalition from PES, NSD, BS and DNP, Coalition from PES, DCG, BS and DNP, Coalition from DPS, DCG, BS and DNP, Coalition from PES, DCG, BS and URA, Coalition from DPS, DCG, BS and URA, Coalition from PES, DCG, DNP and URA and Coalition from DPS, DCG, DNP and URA each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Montenegro shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: NSD
+3.1 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: BS
-1.5 loss in the last 3 months
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
PES
DPS
NSD
DCG
BS
DNP
URA
SDP
SNP
SD
Show more

Montenegro — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Montenegro in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Montenegro took place on 11.06.2023.

Government and parliament

Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 81
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 21
Right-leaning parties : 19

Which parties are in the parliament of Montenegro?

In the parliament of Montenegro, there are 81 representatives from 7 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from PES, DPS, ZbCG, DCG/URA, BS, SNP / DEMOS and Sonstige Parteien has 81 representatives.

21 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 19 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Montenegro?

In Montenegro, a coalition of governs.

Parliamentary election in Montenegro 2027

The Parliamentary election in Montenegro 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

The country is lead by a Unknown orientation of . In the last Parliamentary election in Montenegro in 2023, PES (25.6% - 24 seats), DPS (23.2% - 21 seats), ZbCG (14.7% - 13 seats), DCG/URA (12.5% - 11 seats), BS (7.1% - 6 seats), SNP / DEMOS (3.2% - 2 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (10.8% - 4 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 56.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Montenegro?

The next election in Montenegro is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who governs in Montenegro?

In Montenegro, a coalition of governs.

What is the electoral threshold in Montenegro?

The electoral threshold in Montenegro is 3%.

What is the latest poll for Montenegro?

The latest poll for the election in Montenegro was published by CeDem. The parties achieve the following values: PES 26.3%, DPS 26%, NSD 11.3%, DCG 10%, BS 5.3%, DNP 4.2%, URA 3.4%, SDP 2.3%, SD 2.2% and SNP 2.2%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Montenegro?

In the parliament of Montenegro, there are 81 representatives from 7 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from PES, DPS, ZbCG, DCG/URA, BS, SNP / DEMOS and Sonstige Parteien has 81 representatives.