Poland: Polls and trends for the Polish election 2027

Current Election Trend for Poland

PiS
32.4
KO
32.4
PL2050/PSL
12.6
Kon
9.8
Lewica
8.6
BS
2.2
PJJ
1.9
Sonst.
0.1
On the rise: Kon
+0.7 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: BS
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 56.0% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Poland?

In the current election trend in Poland, PiS leads with 32.4%. This is a significant loss of percentage points since the last election.

KO lands at 32.4% and gains +1.7 percentage points since the last election.

PL2050/PSL experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 12.6% (-1.8).

Kon lands at 9.8% and gains +2.6 percentage points since the last election.

Lewica reaches 8.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

BS (2.2%) and PJJ (1.9%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.1% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Research Partner for Ariadna, United Surveys for wp.pl, IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, Pollster for Super Express, Opinia24, OGB for Stanpolityki.pl and Ipsos, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 7196 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Poland, the government from KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica would secure 56% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: PiS, KO, PL2050/PSL, Kon and Lewica reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 74.3% - 25.7% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Poland
· 53 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
34
33.2
10.5
8.4
2.2
0.1

Latest polls for Poland

Research Partner
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
Open Details
33.9
32
9.8
9.8
1.6
0.6
United Surveys
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
35.1
34.5
9.2
8.2
IBRiS
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
33.3
30.6
9.3
8.7
3.8

What is the latest poll for Poland?

The latest poll for the election in Poland was published by Research Partner. The parties achieve the following values: ZP 33.9%, KO 32%, PL2050/PSL 12.3%, Kon 9.8%, Lewica 9.8% and BS 1.6%.

Coalitions

460
Lewica
41
PL2050/PSL
60
KO
156
PiS
156
Kon
47
Majority requires 231 seats
PiS + KO
312
KO + PL2050/PSL + Kon
263
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Kon
263
KO + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
257
PiS + PL2050/PSL + Lewica
257
PiS + Kon + Lewica
244
KO + Kon + Lewica
244

Which coalitions are currently possible in Poland?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from PiS and KO, Coalition from KO, PL2050/PSL and Kon, Coalition from PiS, PL2050/PSL and Kon, Coalition from KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica, Coalition from PiS, PL2050/PSL and Lewica, Coalition from PiS, Kon and Lewica and Coalition from KO, Kon and Lewica each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Poland shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Kon
+0.7 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: BS
-0.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
PiS
KO
PL2050/PSL
Kon
Lewica
BS
PJJ
Show more

Poland — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Poland in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Poland took place on 15.10.2023.

Government and parliament

Andrzej Duda
Head of state
Donald Tusk
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 460
Government & opposition
Government : 248
Opposition : 212
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 26
Right-leaning parties : 212

Which parties are in the parliament of Poland?

In the parliament of Poland, there are 460 representatives from 5 parties. 248 representatives are part of the government from KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica. The opposition from ZP and Kon has 212 representatives.

26 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 212 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Poland?

Donald Tusk governs in Poland with a coalition of KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica. The head of state is Andrzej Duda.

Parliamentary election in Poland 2027

The Parliamentary election in Poland 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Donald Tusk is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of KO, Lewica and PL2050/PSL. In the last Parliamentary election in Poland in 2023, ZP (35.4% - 194 seats), KO (30.7% - 157 seats), PL2050/PSL (14.4% - 65 seats), Lewica (8.6% - 26 seats) and Kon (7.2% - 18 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 74.3%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Poland?

The next election in Poland is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Poland?

The head of state of Poland is Andrzej Duda.

Who governs in Poland?

Donald Tusk governs in Poland with a coalition of KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica.

What is the electoral threshold in Poland?

The electoral threshold in Poland is 5% for parties and 8% for party alliances.

What is the latest poll for Poland?

The latest poll for the election in Poland was published by Research Partner. The parties achieve the following values: ZP 33.9%, KO 32%, PL2050/PSL 12.3%, Kon 9.8%, Lewica 9.8% and BS 1.6%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Poland?

In the parliament of Poland, there are 460 representatives from 5 parties. 248 representatives are part of the government from KO, PL2050/PSL and Lewica. The opposition from ZP and Kon has 212 representatives.