Current Election Trend for Poland

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Poland, KO is leading with 34.2%, followed by PiS with 28.2%, Kon with 14.8%, KKP with 6.8%, Lewica with 6.8%, Razem with 3.9%, PSL with 2.5% and PL2050 with 2.4%. Other parties reach 0.4%.

On the rise: Kon

+1.2 growth in the last 30 days

Trending down: PiS

-1.5 loss in the last 30 days

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Poland is expected to take place in 2027.

Government might not stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 45.2% of the votes.
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
KO
34.2
PiS
28.2
Kon
14.8
KKP
6.8
Lewica
6.8
Razem
3.9
PSL
2.5
PL2050
2.4
Others
0.4

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: Lewica reaches 34 MPs, KO reaches 174 MPs, PiS reaches 143 MPs, Kon reaches 75 MPs and KKP reaches 34 MPs.

Electoral System

The Polish Sejm has 460 seats, which are distributed across 41 electoral districts using the D'Hondt method. Parties must achieve 5% of the votes (8% for electoral alliances). The Senate, with 100 seats, is elected through a majority voting system in single-member districts.

5% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause in Poland is 5% for parties and 8% for party alliances.

Majority from 231 MPs

To form a government, 231 of 460 MPs are required.
KO + PiS
68.9%
PiS + Kon + Lewica
54.8%
PiS + Kon + KKP
54.8%
KO + Kon
54.1%
460
Majority requires 231 seats
Lewica
34
7.4%
KO
174
37.8%
PiS
143
31.1%
Kon
75
16.3%
KKP
34
7.4%

Latest polls for Poland

Opinia24
· 6 days ago
6 days ago
33.8
26.8
15.6
6.6
4.9
1.3
OBG
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
38
28
14
8.9
4.2
2.8
2.7
1.4
United Surveys
· 2 weeks ago
2 weeks ago
32.6
27.8
16.5
8.3
6.8
3.3
3.2
1.6

Parliamentary Election in Poland 2023

15.10.2023

Parliamentary Election in Poland 2019

13.10.2019

Poland — National parliament voting intention

Parties in Poland

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
KO
PiS
Kon
Lewica
KKP
Razem
PSL
PL2050
Show more

Electoral system

Two chambers, two electoral systems: Poland's dual democracy

Poland elects its parliament in a bicameral system: the powerful Sejm with 460 representatives and the weaker Senate with 100 members. While the Sejm is elected using proportional representation, the Senate is decided by a majority vote - the candidate with the most votes wins their district directly.

5% threshold: Small parties struggle in the Sejm

To enter the Sejm, parties must secure at least 5 percent of the votes - electoral alliances need 8 percent. This high threshold ensures stable majorities but often excludes smaller parties. Notably, minority parties are exempt from the threshold and can enter parliament with fewer votes.

41 electoral districts: Warsaw elects 20, Opole only 12 representatives

Poland is divided into 41 electoral districts, which allocate between 7 and 20 mandates depending on population size. Warsaw, as the largest district, sends 20 representatives, while the sparsely populated Opole only has 12. Seats are distributed using the D'Hondt method, which slightly favors larger parties.
Direct Election Members are elected directly by the people.
Party List Vote Voters choose between party lists instead of individuals.
Proportional System Seats are distributed in proportion to votes received.
One Round The election is decided in a single round of voting.
Free Elections are free, fair and competitive.

Government and parliament

Karol Nawrocki

Head of state

Donald Tusk

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 460
Government & opposition
Government : 248
Opposition : 212
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 26
Right-leaning parties : 212

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Poland

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
75
1.6
medium
69
1.6
low
68
2.3
medium
67
1.7
high
65
2.2
high
More Institutes

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.