Romania: Polls and trends for the Romanian election 2024

Current Election Trend for Romania

PSD
30.2
PNL
20.1
AUR
19.5
USR
11.9
SOS
5.2
UDMR
4.9
PRO
2.0
Sonst.
6.2
Next election: 2024
The next parliamentary election in Romania is expected to take place in 2024.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 57.9% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Romania?

In the current election trend in Romania, PSD leads with 30.2%. This is an increase of +1.3 percentage points since the last election.

PNL reaches 20.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.1).

AUR reaches 19.5%. This is a significant increase of +10.4 percentage points since the last election.

USR experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 11.9% (-3.5).

S.O.S. reaches 5.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

UDMR (4.9%) and PRO România (2%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

6.2% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSCOP, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1100 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Romania, the government from PSD, PNL and UDMR would secure 57.9% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: PSD, PNL, AUR, USR and S.O.S. reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 33.2% - 66.8% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Romania
· 33 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
30.6
19.7
19.1
12.8
6
4.7
2.2
1.7
1.4
1.3
0.5

Latest polls for Romania

INSCOP
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
30.2
20.1
19.5
11.9
5.2
4.9
2
0.7
0.6
0.3
4.6
INSCOP
· 4 months ago
4 months ago
Open Details
29.5
20.2
18.4
14.1
4.3
3.8
2.6
1.7
1
0.5
1.3

What is the latest poll for Romania?

The latest poll for the election in Romania was published by INSCOP. The parties achieve the following values: PSD 30.2%, PNL 20.1%, AUR 19.5%, USR 11.9%, S.O.S. 5.2%, UDMR 4.9%, PRO România 2%, PUSL 0.7%, FD 0.6% and REPER 0.3%.

Coalitions

PNL + AUR + USR
59.2
PSD + PNL
57.9
PNL + AUR + S.O.S.
51.5

Which coalitions are currently possible in Romania?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from PNL, AUR and USR, Coalition from PSD and PNL and Coalition from PNL, AUR and S.O.S. each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Romania shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: PSD
+1.5 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: USR
-1.2 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
PSD
PNL
AUR
USR
S.O.S.
UDMR
PRO România
Show more

Romania — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Romania in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Romania took place on 06.12.2020.

Government and parliament

Florin Cîțu
Head of state
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 330
Government & opposition
Government : 224
Opposition : 106
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 110
Right-leaning parties : 202

Which parties are in the parliament of Romania?

In the parliament of Romania, there are 330 representatives from 6 parties. 224 representatives are part of the government from PSD, PNL and UDMR. The opposition from USR, AUR and Sonstige Parteien has 106 representatives.

110 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 202 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Romania?

Florin Cîțu governs in Romania with a coalition of PSD, PNL and UDMR.

Parliamentary election in Romania 2024

The Parliamentary election in Romania 2024 will probably take place in 2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

The country is lead by a Coalition of the center of PSD, PNL and UDMR. In the last Parliamentary election in Romania in 2020, PSD (28.9% - 110 seats), PNL (25.2% - 93 seats), USR (15.4% - 55 seats), AUR (9.1% - 33 seats), UDMR (5.7% - 21 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (4.1% - 18 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 33.2%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Romania?

The next election in Romania is expected to take place in the year 2024.

Who is the president of Romania?

The head of state of Romania is Florin Cîțu.

Who governs in Romania?

Florin Cîțu governs in Romania with a coalition of PSD, PNL and UDMR.

What is the electoral threshold in Romania?

The electoral threshold in Romania is 5% for parties and 8% or 10% for party alliances.

What is the latest poll for Romania?

The latest poll for the election in Romania was published by INSCOP. The parties achieve the following values: PSD 30.2%, PNL 20.1%, AUR 19.5%, USR 11.9%, S.O.S. 5.2%, UDMR 4.9%, PRO România 2%, PUSL 0.7%, FD 0.6% and REPER 0.3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Romania?

In the parliament of Romania, there are 330 representatives from 6 parties. 224 representatives are part of the government from PSD, PNL and UDMR. The opposition from USR, AUR and Sonstige Parteien has 106 representatives.