Latvia: Polls and trends for the Latvian election 2026

In the current election trend in Latvia, Nacionālā Apvienība leads with 13.9%. This is an increase of +4.5 percentage points since the last election.

Jaunā Vienotība reaches 13.6%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.5).

Progresīvie reaches 13.6%. This is a significant increase of +7.4 percentage points since the last election.

LPV lands at 11.1% and gains +4.8 percentage points since the last election.

ZZS experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10.3% (-2.5).

Stabilitātei! lands at 8.4% and gains +1.6 percentage points since the last election.

AS experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 8.2% (-2.9).

SDPS lands at 7.3% and gains +2.5 percentage points since the last election.

LA (3.1%), SV (2.9%), Par! (2.5%), JKP (2.2%) and PLV (1.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

1.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from SKDS for LTV, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1785 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

If there were an election this Sunday in Latvia, the government from Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība, AP! and K would secure 31.8% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, Progresīvie, LPV, ZZS, Stabilitātei!, AS and SDPS reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 57% - 43% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

The latest poll for the election in Latvia was published by SKDS. The parties achieve the following values: Nacionālā Apvienība 13.9%, Jaunā Vienotība 13.6%, Progresīvie 13.6%, LPV 11.1%, ZZS 10.3%, Stabilitātei! 8.4%, AS 8.2%, SDPS 7.3%, LA 3.1%, SV 2.9%, Par! 2.5%, JKP 2.2%, PLV 1.1% and P21 0.3%.

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, LPV and ZZS, Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, ZZS, Stabilitātei!, AS and SDPS, Coalition from Progresīvie, ZZS, Stabilitātei!, AS and SDPS, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, LPV and Stabilitātei!, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, LPV and AS, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, ZZS and Stabilitātei!, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, ZZS and AS, Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, Progresīvie, ZZS and Stabilitātei!, Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, Progresīvie, ZZS and AS, Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, Progresīvie, ZZS and SDPS, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, Jaunā Vienotība, Stabilitātei! and AS, Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, Progresīvie, Stabilitātei! and AS, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, LPV, ZZS and Stabilitātei!, Coalition from Nacionālā Apvienība, LPV, ZZS and AS and Coalition from Jaunā Vienotība, LPV, ZZS and Stabilitātei! each achieve a majority in parliament.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Latvia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Latvia in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Latvia took place on 01.10.2022.

In the parliament of Latvia, there are 100 representatives from 8 parties. 42 representatives are part of the government from Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība and AP!. The opposition from ZZS, AS, Stabilitātei!, LPV and Progresīvie has 58 representatives.

10 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 84 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Krišjānis Kariņš governs in Latvia with a coalition of Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība, AP! and K. The head of state is Egils Levits.

The next election in Latvia is expected to take place in the year 2026.

The head of state of Latvia is Egils Levits.

Krišjānis Kariņš governs in Latvia with a coalition of Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība, AP! and K.

The electoral threshold in Latvia is 5%.

The latest poll for the election in Latvia was published by SKDS. The parties achieve the following values: Nacionālā Apvienība 13.9%, Jaunā Vienotība 13.6%, Progresīvie 13.6%, LPV 11.1%, ZZS 10.3%, Stabilitātei! 8.4%, AS 8.2%, SDPS 7.3%, LA 3.1%, SV 2.9%, Par! 2.5%, JKP 2.2%, PLV 1.1% and P21 0.3%.

In the parliament of Latvia, there are 100 representatives from 8 parties. 42 representatives are part of the government from Jaunā Vienotība, Nacionālā Apvienība and AP!. The opposition from ZZS, AS, Stabilitātei!, LPV and Progresīvie has 58 representatives.