Latvia Election polls, voting intention polls and current polling numbers

Latvia's economy is currently showing a mixed performance. Gross Domestic Product expanded by 2.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, though its pace slowed compared to the previous quarter. Industries like manufacturing and construction particularly held back growth, while trade and real estate sectors saw gains. Meanwhile, inflation is becoming less of a concern, with the annual rate falling to 2.9 percent in April. Still, daily expenses, especially for transport, housing, and dining out, continue to strain many households. In parallel, Latvia's political scene is navigating a time of uncertainty. Prime Minister Evika Silina stepped down in mid-May after disagreements over drone incidents at the Russian border and the breakdown of her coalition government. This political instability, stemming from a fragmented three-party alliance, could hinder effective governance and slow down essential economic reforms. While a new government is expected soon, the persistent uncertainty might deter investments and complicate efforts to stimulate the economy and lighten household financial loads, despite long-term forecasts predicting modest growth.

Latvia is significantly strengthening its borders. In response to an ongoing 'hybrid attack' from Belarus, which is pushing thousands of irregular migrants to its border, the government has extended heightened security measures until the end of 2026. This comes as a direct response to over 7,000 prevented border crossings this year alone. At the same time, Parliament passed a new immigration law set to take effect in 2027. This law drastically tightens the rules for non-EU citizens: investment visas will be restructured, language proficiency will become mandatory, and border controls will be significantly expanded. These measures underscore Latvia's determination to protect its national security and identity, and to strictly prevent illegal migration.

Latvia is navigating an increasingly tense geopolitical situation, marked by an escalating border crisis and heightened security demands within NATO. Riga extended enhanced border security with Belarus until the end of 2026, as the number of illegal border crossings, often involving warning shots from border guards, has reached record levels. On July 1st alone, 232 unauthorized attempts were recorded, highlighting the ongoing hybrid threat posed by Minsk. In parallel, Russia is exacerbating the situation: As of July 1st, Moscow closed all railway border crossings to Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, severing the last direct land routes and increasing the isolation of the Baltic states. These measures reinforce Latvia's call for a stronger NATO presence. Ahead of the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, President Edgars Rinkēvičs is urging that defense spending be translated into concrete military capabilities and that the alliance remain united in the face of Russian and Belarusian provocations. The government is responding with increased defense spending and a leading role in the International Drone Coalition to bolster security on the Eastern Flank.

Latvia is navigating a period of heightened political sensitivity. Currently, a four-party coalition led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs is at the helm of the country. This government took office at the end of May 2026, following the collapse of the previous government under Evika Silina in mid-May. The trigger was a government crisis caused by the resignation of Defense Minister Andris Spruds, which stemmed from drone incidents near the Russian border. Silina accused Spruds of shortcomings in drone defense and lost the trust of her coalition partners, leading to the alliance's downfall. The political culture is shaped by this recent instability and the anticipation of parliamentary elections in October 2026. In parallel, President Edgars Rinkēvičs, most recently on July 5th, is warning about insufficient NATO rearmament and calling for a coordinated European negotiation strategy for the Ukraine war, which is defining the security policy debate in the country.

Latvia is stepping up its green transition, though discussions are heavily influenced by funding issues and infrastructure projects. Currently, Riga, along with eleven other EU nations, is calling for a substantial increase in the Modernisation Fund to speed up the move away from fossil fuels. At the same time, the city of Riga is pushing forward with major infrastructure investments exceeding 200 million Euros, particularly for bridges and public transport. However, a shadow looms over the large-scale Rail Baltica project: its completion is delayed until 2032, and costs are skyrocketing, raising questions about the efficiency of major state-led endeavors.

Latvia is grappling with a dual challenge to its social harmony: a shrinking and rapidly aging population combined with persistent social inequality. Current data reveals an ongoing decline in population and an increasing proportion of older individuals, placing significant strain on the pension system. Despite government measures to bolster social security, such as the "Minimum Income Reform" of January 2026, which raised pensions and social benefits, a considerable gap between rich and poor remains. The government is trying to promote the inclusion of young people through youth policies and mitigate demographic trends. However, the long-term viability of the pension system and the emigration of young people continue to be central, unresolved debates that are testing the generational contract.

Latvia's youth unemployment rate climbed to 9.20% in May 2026, a worrying one-percentage-point jump from the previous month, hitting young people, apprentices, and students hard. This development challenges the four-party government, just confirmed under Andris Kulbergs at the end of May, to quickly boost the economy. At the same time, major education reforms are shaping daily life: a ban on cell phones in primary and secondary schools has been in effect since June 2026, aiming to improve the learning environment. Additionally, the complete switch to Latvian as the sole language of instruction from fourth grade onward was finalized in the 2025/2026 school year, requiring adjustments for many students and teachers. While the digitalization of higher education, promising virtual labs and online exams by 2029, offers modernization, the pressing job market situation and Latvia's structural issue of population decline remain key political challenges, directly impacting younger generations.

Latvia is significantly increasing its monthly child support benefit for children up to 1.5 years old, raising it from 171 to 298 Euros, and boosting the one-time birth allowance to 600 Euros. These substantial increases, established in the 2026 state budget, are intended to directly ease the financial burden on families and single parents. Additionally, a stricter rule for parental benefits took effect on July 1, 2026: eligibility now requires children to have an active Latvian ID card and a permanent residence in the country, a measure designed to prevent misuse. While the government also raised the minimum wage to 780 Euros and lowered the VAT on basic foodstuffs, family associations criticize that these increases don't fully offset high inflation and rising living costs, especially for families with older children.

In 2024, over 40 percent of Latvian pensioners lived at or below the poverty line. This ongoing difficult situation is now being addressed by the Latvian government with a comprehensive pension reform. In July, the Ministry of Welfare presented a phased plan for a basic pension, set to take effect on January 1, 2027. Initially, those over 85 will benefit, as their average pension of 503.71 Euros is significantly below the national average of 640.67 Euros. This targeted measure comes amidst a challenging economic climate: the Ministry of Finance has revised growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 downwards and raised the inflation forecast to 3.6 percent for 2026. Despite an increase in minimum pensions at the beginning of 2026, rising living costs, especially for housing and utilities, continue to erode the purchasing power of the older generation.

Latvia's working middle class is facing a mixed economic situation: Starting July 2026, the government is lowering the VAT on essential foods like bread and milk to 12 percent. This targeted relief comes amidst sharply rising housing and energy costs. In June 2026, electricity prices climbed 12% compared to the previous month and are 114% higher than the previous year. At the same time, inflation for housing and utilities accelerated to 7.2%. The new coalition government under Andris Kulbergs, which took office at the end of May, is trying to support purchasing power with such measures, even as external energy price shocks and domestic tariff adjustments continue to heavily burden household budgets.

In 2026, entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals in Latvia are feeling the impact of a comprehensive tax reform. The dividend tax has increased from 20 to 25 percent, directly affecting business owners and shareholders. At the same time, a new residential tenancy law came into effect on July 1, 2026, redefining the rights and obligations for property owners to create a fair balance between tenants and landlords. These reforms aim to modernize the economy, boost budget revenues, and promote a more equitable distribution of burdens. However, macroeconomic forecasts from July 2026, both from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Latvia, indicate a slowdown in economic development and increased inflation.

Latvia is making cultural and economic conditions tougher for minorities. Since January 1, 2026, a new VAT law taxes books in Russian, Belarusian, or Romani at 21%, while works in the state language and certain EU languages cost only 5%. The European Free Alliance is calling on the EU Commission to start an infringement procedure, arguing that this violates EU law on linguistic equality and directly increases the cost of living for many minorities. At the same time, the LGBTQ+ community continues to strive for full equality. While civil partnerships with marriage-like rights – excluding adoption and inheritance – have been possible since July 1, 2024, the Supreme Court is currently referring the recognition of same-sex marriages performed abroad to the European Court of Justice for clarification. The refusal to legally prosecute hate crimes based on sexual orientation or gender identity also remains an urgent issue. In June 2026, Latvia received recommendations on LGBTI rights as part of the UN Universal Periodic Review, with some of these being supported, highlighting the international pressure on the government.

Latvia's immigration landscape is at a crossroads: In June, Parliament passed a new immigration law intended to eliminate popular 'Golden Visa' options for real estate and bank deposits. However, President Edgars Rinkēvičs promptly sent the draft back for reconsideration, particularly due to concerns regarding the investment regulations. This political intervention creates uncertainty for investors and expats for now, while the old rules remain in effect. The government in Riga aims to exert tighter control over the immigration of third-country nationals and is implementing higher hurdles, such as mandatory A2-level Latvian language proficiency for many categories and increased minimum income requirements. For example, the required monthly income for main applicants rises to 950 Euros. The debate over the realignment of migration policy, which also includes the rejection of the EU Migration Pact, reflects Latvia's endeavor to strengthen national security and social cohesion.