Croatia: Polls and trends for the Croatian election 2024

Current Election Trend for Croatia

HDZ
31.2
SDP
18.2
DP
9.9
Most
9.9
M
9.6
NH
3.6
HSU
3.0
OiP
2.7
HSS
1.9
CENTAR
1.6
Fokus
1.5
RF
1.4
HNS
1.3
IDS
1.2
SD
1.2
HS
0.9
Sonst.
0.9
Next election: 2024
The next parliamentary election in Croatia is expected to take place in 2024.
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 39.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Croatia?

In the current election trend in Croatia, HDZ leads with 31.2%. This is a loss of -4.6 percentage points since the last election.

SDP reaches 18.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.7).

DP reaches 9.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.6 percentage points).

Most lands at 9.9% and gains +2.8 percentage points since the last election.

Možemo! lands at 9.6% and gains +2.9 percentage points since the last election.

Naprijed Hrvatska! (3.6%), HSU (3%), OiP (2.7%), HSS (1.9%), Centar (1.6%), Fokus (1.5%), RF (1.4%), HNS (1.3%), IDS (1.2%), SD (1.2%) and Hrvatski suverenisti (0.9%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0.9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from 2x1 Komunikacije, Promocija PLUS for RTL and Ipsos for Nova TV, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3328 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Croatia, the government from HDZ and HNS would secure 39.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: HDZ, SDP, DP, Most and Možemo! reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 46.9% - 53.1% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Croatia
· 12 / 720 seats
31.2
18.2
9.9
9.9
9.6
3.6
3
2.7
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.9

Latest polls for Croatia

2x1 Komunikacije
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
30.3
18.4
9.9
9.8
9.6
3.9
3.3
1.9
1.8
11.1
Promocija PLUS
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
31.8
19.4
10.7
10.3
9.6
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
5.2
2x1 Komunikacije
· 2 months ago
2 months ago
Open Details
29.4
18
10.6
10.5
9.9
4.2
3.8
3.6
2.3
1.6
6.1

What is the latest poll for Croatia?

The latest poll for the election in Croatia was published by 2x1 Komunikacije. The parties achieve the following values: HDZ 30.3%, SDP 18.4%, Most 9.9%, DP 9.8%, Možemo! 9.6%, Naprijed Hrvatska! 3.9%, HSU 3.3%, Centar 1.9% and RF 1.8%.

Coalitions

151
M
18
SDP
35
HDZ
60
Most
19
DP
19
Majority requires 76 seats
HDZ + SDP
95
HDZ + Most
79
HDZ + DP
79

Which coalitions are currently possible in Croatia?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from HDZ and SDP, Coalition from HDZ and Most and Coalition from HDZ and DP each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Croatia shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: HSU
+0.6 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: Možemo!
-1.2 loss in the last 3 months
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
HDZ
SDP
Most
DP
Možemo!
Naprijed Hrvatska!
HSU
OiP
HSS
Centar
Fokus
RF
HNS
IDS
SD
Hrvatski suverenisti
Show more

Croatia — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Croatia in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Croatia took place on 05.07.2020.

Government and parliament

Andrej Plenković
Head of state
Andrej Plenković
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 151
Government & opposition
Government : 67
Opposition : 84
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 49
Right-leaning parties : 90

Which parties are in the parliament of Croatia?

In the parliament of Croatia, there are 151 representatives from 9 parties. 67 representatives are part of the government from HDZ and HNS. The opposition from SDP, DP, Most, Možemo!, Pametno, Reformisti and Sonstige Parteien has 84 representatives.

49 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 90 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Croatia?

Andrej Plenković governs in Croatia with a coalition of HDZ and HNS. The head of state is Andrej Plenković.

Parliamentary election in Croatia 2024

The Parliamentary election in Croatia 2024 will probably take place in 2024. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Andrej Plenković is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of HDZ and HNS. In the last Parliamentary election in Croatia in 2020, HDZ (35.8% - 66 seats), SDP (23.9% - 41 seats), DP (10.5% - 16 seats), Most (7.1% - 8 seats), Možemo! (6.7% - 7 seats), Pametno (3.8% - 3 seats), HNS (1.3% - 1 seats), Reformisti (1% - 1 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (7.1% - 8 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 46.9%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Croatia?

The next election in Croatia is expected to take place in the year 2024.

Who is the president of Croatia?

The head of state of Croatia is Andrej Plenković.

Who governs in Croatia?

Andrej Plenković governs in Croatia with a coalition of HDZ and HNS.

What is the electoral threshold in Croatia?

The electoral threshold in Croatia is 5% at the constituency level.

What is the latest poll for Croatia?

The latest poll for the election in Croatia was published by 2x1 Komunikacije. The parties achieve the following values: HDZ 30.3%, SDP 18.4%, Most 9.9%, DP 9.8%, Možemo! 9.6%, Naprijed Hrvatska! 3.9%, HSU 3.3%, Centar 1.9% and RF 1.8%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Croatia?

In the parliament of Croatia, there are 151 representatives from 9 parties. 67 representatives are part of the government from HDZ and HNS. The opposition from SDP, DP, Most, Možemo!, Pametno, Reformisti and Sonstige Parteien has 84 representatives.