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Ireland: Polls and trends for the Irish election 2025

Current Election Trend for Ireland

SF
24.4
FG
21.4
FF
16.8
SD
4.8
GP
4.3
Lab
3.9
S-PBP
2.6
Aon
2.5
Sonst.
19.3
On the rise: Fine Gael
+2.4 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: Sinn Féin
-4.0 loss in the last 3 months
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Ireland is expected to take place in 2025.
Government could stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 52.6% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Ireland?

In the current election trend in Ireland, Sinn Féin leads with 24.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.1 percentage points).

Fine Gael reaches 21.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.5 percentage points).

Fianna Fáil reaches 16.8%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.4).

Social Democrats lands at 4.8% and gains +1.9 percentage points since the last election.

Green Party experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 4.3% (-2.8).

Labour Party reaches 3.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.5 percentage points).

Solidarity–People Before Profit reaches 2.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (±0.0 percentage points).

Aontú reaches 2.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.6 percentage points).

19.3% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Red C, OPINIONS, Ipsos and Ireland Thinks for The Sunday Independent, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 4955 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Ireland, the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party would secure 52.6% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Social Democrats, Green Party, Labour Party, Solidarity–People Before Profit and Aontú reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 62.9% - 37.1% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Ireland

Red C
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
OPINIONS
· 4 weeks ago
4 weeks ago
Open Details
Ipsos
· 4 weeks ago
4 weeks ago
Open Details

What is the latest poll for Ireland?

The latest poll for the election in Ireland was published by Red C. The parties achieve the following values: Sinn Féin 23%, Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 15%, Social Democrats 5%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 4%, Aontú 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 3%.

Coalitions

160
SF
49
S-PBP
5
SD
9
Lab
7
GP
8
FG
43
FF
34
Aon
5
Majority requires 81 seats
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Social Democrats
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Green Party
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Labour Party
Fine Gael + Fianna Fáil + Aontú

Which coalitions are currently possible in Ireland?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Social Democrats, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party, Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour Party and Coalition from Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Aontú each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Ireland shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Fine Gael
+2.4 growth in the last 3 months
Trending down: Sinn Féin
-4.0 loss in the last 3 months
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Sinn Féin
Fine Gael
Fianna Fáil
Social Democrats
Green Party
Labour Party
Solidarity–People Before Profit
Aontú
Show more

Ireland — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Ireland in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Ireland took place on 08.02.2020.

Government and parliament

Micheál Martin
Head of state
Micheál Martin
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 160
Government & opposition
Government : 84
Opposition : 75
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 67
Right-leaning parties : 73

Which parties are in the parliament of Ireland?

In the parliament of Ireland, there are 160 representatives from 10 parties. 84 representatives are part of the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The opposition from Sinn Féin, Independents, Labour Party, Social Democrats, Solidarity–People Before Profit, Aontú and Independents 4 Change has 75 representatives.

67 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 73 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Ireland?

Micheál Martin governs in Ireland with a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The head of state is Micheál Martin.

Parliamentary election in Ireland 2025

The Parliamentary election in Ireland 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Micheál Martin is currently governing with a Coalition of the center of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Green Party. In the last Parliamentary election in Ireland in 2020, Sinn Féin (24.5% - 37 seats), Fianna Fáil (22.2% - 37 seats), Fine Gael (20.9% - 35 seats), Independents (12.2% - 19 seats), Green Party (7.1% - 12 seats), Labour Party (4.4% - 6 seats), Social Democrats (2.9% - 6 seats), Solidarity–People Before Profit (2.6% - 5 seats), Aontú (1.9% - 1 seats) and Independents 4 Change (0.4% - 1 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 62.9%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Ireland?

The next election in Ireland is expected to take place in the year 2025.

Who is the president of Ireland?

The head of state of Ireland is Micheál Martin.

Who governs in Ireland?

Micheál Martin governs in Ireland with a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party.

What is the latest poll for Ireland?

The latest poll for the election in Ireland was published by Red C. The parties achieve the following values: Sinn Féin 23%, Fine Gael 22%, Fianna Fáil 15%, Social Democrats 5%, Green Party 4%, Labour Party 4%, Aontú 3% and Solidarity–People Before Profit 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Ireland?

In the parliament of Ireland, there are 160 representatives from 10 parties. 84 representatives are part of the government from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Green Party. The opposition from Sinn Féin, Independents, Labour Party, Social Democrats, Solidarity–People Before Profit, Aontú and Independents 4 Change has 75 representatives.