Current Election Trend for Iceland
Who is leading in the election trend in Iceland?
In the current election trend in Iceland, Samfylkingin leads with 27.7%. This is a significant increase of +17.8 percentage points since the last election.
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn reaches 19.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-5.2).
Miðflokkurinn reaches 12%. This is a significant increase of +6.6 percentage points since the last election.
Framsóknarflokkurinn reaches 8.7%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-8.6).
Píratar reaches 8.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.1 percentage points).
Viðreisn reaches 8.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.1 percentage points).
Flokkur fólksins experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 6.6% (-2.2).
V reaches 5.3%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.3).
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands (3.9%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.
0% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Gallup and Maskína, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 6499 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Samfylkingin, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, Miðflokkurinn, Framsóknarflokkurinn, Píratar, Viðreisn, Flokkur fólksins and V reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Latest polls for Iceland
What is the latest poll for Iceland?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Iceland?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Iceland shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Samfylkingin |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+17.8
|
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-5.2
|
Miðflokkurinn |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+6.6
|
Framsóknarflokkurinn |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-8.6
|
Píratar |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.1
|
Viðreisn |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+0.1
|
Flokkur fólksins |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-2.2
|
V |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-7.3
|
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands |
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.2
|
Iceland — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Iceland?
In the parliament of Iceland, there are 63 representatives from 8 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, Framsóknarflokkurinn, V, Samfylkingin, Flokkur fólksins, Píratar, Viðreisn and Miðflokkurinn has 63 representatives.
26 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 37 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Iceland?
Parliamentary election in Iceland 2025
The Parliamentary election in Iceland 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Katrín Jakobsdóttir is currently governing with a Unknown orientation of . In the last Parliamentary election in Iceland in 2021, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (24.4% - 16 seats), Framsóknarflokkurinn (17.3% - 13 seats), V (12.6% - 8 seats), Samfylkingin (9.9% - 6 seats), Flokkur fólksins (8.8% - 6 seats), Píratar (8.6% - 6 seats), Viðreisn (8.3% - 5 seats) and Miðflokkurinn (5.4% - 3 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 80.1%.