Iceland: Polls and trends for the Icelandic election 2025

Current Election Trend for Iceland

S
29.8
D
18.2
M
10.5
B
8.7
P
8.4
F
7.7
C
7.6
V
5.6
J
3.6
Next election: 2025
The next parliamentary election in Iceland is expected to take place in 2025.

Who is leading in the election trend in Iceland?

In the current election trend in Iceland, Samfylkingin leads with 29.8%. This is a significant increase of +19.9 percentage points since the last election.

Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn reaches 18.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-6.2).

Miðflokkurinn reaches 10.5%. This is a significant increase of +5.1 percentage points since the last election.

Framsóknarflokkurinn reaches 8.7%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-8.6).

Píratar reaches 8.4% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.2 percentage points).

Flokkur fólksins experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 7.7% (-1.1).

Viðreisn reaches 7.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.7 percentage points).

V reaches 5.6%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election (-7.0).

Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands (3.6%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

0% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Gallup and Maskína, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 7088 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Iceland, the government from would secure 0% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Samfylkingin, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, Miðflokkurinn, Framsóknarflokkurinn, Píratar, Flokkur fólksins, Viðreisn and V reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 80.1% - 19.9% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Latest polls for Iceland

Gallup
· 3 weeks ago
3 weeks ago
Open Details
30.6
18.2
10.9
8.4
8.1
7.9
7
5.5
3.4
Gallup
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
28
18
10
9
9
9
7
6
4
Maskína
· 3 months ago
3 months ago
Open Details
26
17.9
10.4
10.3
10
8.4
6.4
6.1
4.4
0.1

What is the latest poll for Iceland?

The latest poll for the election in Iceland was published by Gallup. The parties achieve the following values: Samfylkingin 30.6%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 18.2%, Miðflokkurinn 10.9%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 8.4%, Píratar 8.1%, Flokkur fólksins 7.9%, Viðreisn 7%, V 5.5% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 3.4%.

Coalitions

Samfylkingin + Píratar + Flokkur fólksins + V
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
50.5
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
49.8
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Viðreisn + V

Which coalitions are currently possible in Iceland?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Samfylkingin, Píratar, Flokkur fólksins and V and Coalition from Samfylkingin, Miðflokkurinn and Píratar each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Iceland shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

On the rise: Samfylkingin
+2.1 growth in the last 30 days
Trending down: Viðreisn
-1.6 loss in the last 30 days
Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Samfylkingin
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
Miðflokkurinn
Framsóknarflokkurinn
Píratar
Flokkur fólksins
Viðreisn
V
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands
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Iceland — National parliament voting intention

D V S M B P F C J Sonst.

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Iceland in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Iceland took place on 25.09.2021.

Government and parliament

Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 63
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 26
Right-leaning parties : 37

Which parties are in the parliament of Iceland?

In the parliament of Iceland, there are 63 representatives from 8 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, Framsóknarflokkurinn, V, Samfylkingin, Flokkur fólksins, Píratar, Viðreisn and Miðflokkurinn has 63 representatives.

26 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 37 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Iceland?

Katrín Jakobsdóttir governs in Iceland with a coalition of .

Parliamentary election in Iceland 2025

The Parliamentary election in Iceland 2025 will probably take place in 2025. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Katrín Jakobsdóttir is currently governing with a Unknown orientation of . In the last Parliamentary election in Iceland in 2021, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (24.4% - 16 seats), Framsóknarflokkurinn (17.3% - 13 seats), V (12.6% - 8 seats), Samfylkingin (9.9% - 6 seats), Flokkur fólksins (8.8% - 6 seats), Píratar (8.6% - 6 seats), Viðreisn (8.3% - 5 seats) and Miðflokkurinn (5.4% - 3 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 80.1%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Iceland?

The next election in Iceland is expected to take place in the year 2025.

Who is the president of Iceland?

The head of state of Iceland is Katrín Jakobsdóttir.

Who governs in Iceland?

Katrín Jakobsdóttir governs in Iceland with a coalition of .

What is the electoral threshold in Iceland?

The electoral threshold in Iceland is 5% (only for compensatory mandates).

What is the latest poll for Iceland?

The latest poll for the election in Iceland was published by Gallup. The parties achieve the following values: Samfylkingin 30.6%, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 18.2%, Miðflokkurinn 10.9%, Framsóknarflokkurinn 8.4%, Píratar 8.1%, Flokkur fólksins 7.9%, Viðreisn 7%, V 5.5% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands 3.4%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Iceland?

In the parliament of Iceland, there are 63 representatives from 8 parties. 0 representatives are part of the government from . The opposition from Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn, Framsóknarflokkurinn, V, Samfylkingin, Flokkur fólksins, Píratar, Viðreisn and Miðflokkurinn has 63 representatives.