Iceland: Polls and trends for the Icelandic election 2029

Current Election Trend for Iceland

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Iceland, Samfylkingin is leading with 32.7%, followed by Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn with 18.8%, Viðreisn with 13.7%, Miðflokkurinn with 10.4%, Flokkur fólksins with 7%, Framsóknarflokkurinn with 6.4%, Píratar with 4.5%, V with 3.1% and Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands with 2.7%. Other parties reach 0.7%.

On the rise: B

+0.8 growth in the last 30 days

Trending down: C

-1.5 loss in the last 30 days

Next election: 2029

The next parliamentary election in Iceland is expected to take place in 2029.

Government could stay in office

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 57.1% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 30.11.2024
S
+11.9
D
-0.6
C
-2.2
M
-1.7
F
-6.8
B
-1.4
P
+1.5
V
+0.8
J
-1.3
Political orientation
S
D
C
M
F
B
P
V
J
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
S
32.7
D
18.8
C
13.7
M
10.4
F
7.0
B
6.4
P
4.5
V
3.1
J
2.7
Others
0.7

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 7 parties could enter parliament: Samfylkingin reaches 23 MPs, Flokkur fólksins reaches 4 MPs, Píratar reaches 3 MPs, Viðreisn reaches 9 MPs, Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn reaches 13 MPs, Miðflokkurinn reaches 7 MPs and Framsóknarflokkurinn reaches 4 MPs.

Electoral System

4% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause in Iceland is 5% (only for compensatory mandates).

Majority from 32 MPs

To form a government, 32 of 63 MPs are required.
Samfylkingin + Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn
57.1%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins
57.1%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
54.0%
Samfylkingin + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Framsóknarflokkurinn
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins
52.4%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
52.4%
Samfylkingin + Viðreisn
50.8%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Viðreisn + Miðflokkurinn + Píratar
50.8%
Samfylkingin + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn
49.2%
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn + Miðflokkurinn + Flokkur fólksins + Framsóknarflokkurinn + Píratar
49.2%
63
Majority requires 32 seats
S
23
36.5%
F
4
6.3%
P
3
4.8%
C
9
14.3%
D
13
20.6%
M
7
11.1%
B
4
6.3%

Latest polls for Iceland

Prósent
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
S
32
D
18.3
C
14.4
M
9.9
F
7.6
B
7.1
P
5.2
J
2.7
V
2.1
Others
0.7
Gallup
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
S
34
D
19.5
C
12.6
M
11.8
F
6.9
B
5.8
V
3.6
P
2.9
J
2.1
Others
0.8
Maskína
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
S
31.9
D
18.6
C
14.3
M
9.1
F
6.3
B
6.3
P
5.8
V
4.1
J
3.5
Others
0.1

Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2024

30.11.2024

Parliamentary Election in Iceland 2021

25.09.2021

Iceland — National parliament voting intention

D V S M B P F C J L

Electoral system

Proportional representation with compensatory mandates

Iceland holds elections for its parliament, the Althing, every four years using a proportional representation system. Citizens vote on party lists in six electoral districts. Additionally, there are compensatory mandates to ensure that the results reflect the nationwide share of votes.

Five percent threshold for parties

To enter parliament, parties must receive at least five percent of the votes. This limits fragmentation while keeping the political landscape diverse.

President with a symbolic role

The president is elected directly but has limited political powers. The real authority lies with the parliament and the government, led by the prime minister.
Direct Election Members are elected directly by the people.
Party List Vote Voters choose between party lists instead of individuals.
Proportional System Seats are distributed in proportion to votes received.
One Round The election is decided in a single round of voting.
Free Elections are free, fair and competitive.

Government and parliament

Katrín Jakobsdóttir

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 63
Government & opposition
Government : 36
Opposition : 27
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 15
Right-leaning parties : 38

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Iceland

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
82
Gallup
1.4
low
72
Maskína
2.3
low
54
Prósent
3.3
high

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
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