Italy: Polls and trends for the Italian election 2027

Current Election Trend for Italy

FdI
27.5
PD
19.9
M5S
16.1
Lega
8.2
FI
8.0
AVS
3.8
A
3.7
IV
3.2
+E
2.7
Exit
1.6
UP
1.3
NM
1.1
Sonst.
2.9
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.
Government would have to worry
In the current election trend, the government parties receive 48.3% of the votes.

Who is leading in the election trend in Italy?

In the current election trend in Italy, Fratelli d’Italia leads with 27.5%. This is an increase of +1.5 percentage points since the last election.

Partito Democratico reaches 19.9% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

Movimento 5 Stelle reaches 16.1% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).

Lega reaches 8.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.6 percentage points).

Forza Italia reaches 8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.1 percentage points).

AVS reaches 3.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.2 percentage points).

Azione reaches 3.7%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

Italia Viva reaches 3.2%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().

Più Europa (2.7%), Italexit (1.6%), UP (1.3%) and NM (1.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

2.9% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

Which polls were considered in the election trend?

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Tecnè for Dire, Termometro Politico, Eumetra for PiazzaPulita, SWG for La7, Quorum, Demopolis for Otto e Mezzo and Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 13110 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

What values do the small parties have?

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

Could the government stay in office?

If there were an election this Sunday in Italy, the government from Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM would secure 48.3% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

Which parties would enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Fratelli d’Italia, Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, Lega, Forza Italia, AVS, Azione and Italia Viva reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

Are non-voters considered in the election trend?

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 63.9% - 36.1% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament

Italy
· 76 / 720 seats
EU-Parliament
27
21
15.5
8.8
8.6
4.3
4.3
3.9
2.3
2.2
2.1

Latest polls for Italy

Tecnè
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
27.5
20.5
15.6
9.4
7.8
4
3.6
3.2
3
5.4
Termometro Politico
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
27.5
19.5
16
7.2
3.8
3.2
2.8
2.4
1.7
1.2
0.5
5.2
Eumetra
· 1 month ago
1 month ago
Open Details
27.3
19.9
16
8.1
8.1
4.1
3.8
3.3
2.7
1.5
1.3
1
2.9

What is the latest poll for Italy?

The latest poll for the election in Italy was published by Tecnè. The parties achieve the following values: Fratelli d’Italia 27.5%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.6%, Forza Italia 9.4%, Lega 7.8%, AVS 4%, Azione 3.6%, Italia Viva 3.2% and Più Europa 3%.

Coalitions

400
AVS
17
PD
88
A
16
M5S
71
IV
14
FI
35
FdI
123
Lega
36
Majority requires 201 seats
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega + Forza Italia
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
230
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
229
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
211
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Italia Viva
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia + Italia Viva
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Italia Viva
208
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS + Azione + Italia Viva
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + Forza Italia
194

Which coalitions are currently possible in Italy?

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, Lega and Forza Italia, Coalition from Fratelli d’Italia, Movimento 5 Stelle and Lega, Coalition from Fratelli d’Italia, Movimento 5 Stelle and Forza Italia, Coalition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, Forza Italia and Azione, Coalition from Fratelli d’Italia, Movimento 5 Stelle and AVS, Coalition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, Forza Italia and Italia Viva, Coalition from Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and Italia Viva, Coalition from Fratelli d’Italia, Movimento 5 Stelle and Italia Viva and Coalition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, AVS, Azione and Italia Viva each achieve a majority in parliament.

Information on the Coalition Overview

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Italy shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Fratelli d’Italia
Partito Democratico
Movimento 5 Stelle
Lega
Forza Italia
AVS
Azione
Italia Viva
Più Europa
Italexit
UP
NM
Show more

Italy — National parliament voting intention

Information on the Development of the Election Trend

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Italy in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Italy took place on 25.09.2022.

Government and parliament

Sergio Mattarella
Head of state
Giorgia Meloni
Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 400
Government & opposition
Government : 237
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 103
Right-leaning parties : 238

Which parties are in the parliament of Italy?

In the parliament of Italy, there are 400 representatives from 15 parties. 237 representatives are part of the government from Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM. The opposition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, A/IV, AVS, Più Europa, ScN, IC, SVP, MAIE, VdA and Sonstige Parteien has 163 representatives.

103 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 238 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Who governs in Italy?

Giorgia Meloni governs in Italy with a coalition of Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM. The head of state is Sergio Mattarella.

Parliamentary election in Italy 2027

The Parliamentary election in Italy 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.

Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition of Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. In the last Parliamentary election in Italy in 2022, Fratelli d’Italia (26% - 119 seats), Partito Democratico (19.1% - 69 seats), Movimento 5 Stelle (15.4% - 52 seats), Lega (8.8% - 66 seats), Forza Italia (8.1% - 45 seats), A/IV (7.8% - 21 seats), AVS (3.6% - 12 seats), Più Europa (2.8% - 2 seats), NM (0.9% - 7 seats), ScN (0.8% - 1 seats), IC (0.6% - 1 seats), SVP (0.4% - 1 seats), MAIE (0% - 1 seats), VdA (0% - 1 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (1.2% - 2 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.9%.

FAQ

When is the next election in Italy?

The next election in Italy is expected to take place in the year 2027.

Who is the president of Italy?

The head of state of Italy is Sergio Mattarella.

Who governs in Italy?

Giorgia Meloni governs in Italy with a coalition of Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM.

What is the electoral threshold in Italy?

The electoral threshold in Italy is 3%.

What is the latest poll for Italy?

The latest poll for the election in Italy was published by Tecnè. The parties achieve the following values: Fratelli d’Italia 27.5%, Partito Democratico 20.5%, Movimento 5 Stelle 15.6%, Forza Italia 9.4%, Lega 7.8%, AVS 4%, Azione 3.6%, Italia Viva 3.2% and Più Europa 3%.

Which parties are in the parliament of Italy?

In the parliament of Italy, there are 400 representatives from 15 parties. 237 representatives are part of the government from Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM. The opposition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, A/IV, AVS, Più Europa, ScN, IC, SVP, MAIE, VdA and Sonstige Parteien has 163 representatives.