Election trends and current polls for Italy

PolitPro Election Trend

The current PolitPro election trend for the next parliamentary elections

M5S

15.8%

±0

19.1%

-0.1

Lega

31.4%

-0.1

6.6%

-0.2

FdI

10.9%

+0.3

2.8%

-0.3

+0.2

1.8%

+0.1

0.8%

±0

2.2%

+0.2

4.2%

-0.2

Sonstige

2.4%

+0.1

Changes to last election from 04.03.2018

M5S

-16.9

+0.3

Lega

+14.0

-7.4

FdI

+6.5

+2.8

-0.6

+1.8

+0.8

+2.2

+4.2

Political orientation

M5S

Lega

FdI

The artificial intelligence (AI) of PolitPro analyzes and evaluates current election polls of leading opinion research institutes. In the election trend, it calculates an intelligently weighted average of the values of current Sunday questions. For the calculation always the last values of an institute are used, taking into account the time dependencies as well as different qualitative and quantitative weightings.

The aim of the AI is to get a quick and uncomplicated overview of current political trends.

The displayed change of values always refers to the period of the last 7 days.

Last Sunday questions

Current Sunday questions from leading opinion research institutes

Camera dei deputati

Tecnè - 25.01.2020

M5S

15.1%

-0.2

19.4%

+0.3

Lega

31.7%

-0.5

7.8%

-0.2

FdI

11%

+0.3

2.5%

-0.1

1.8%

+0.1

2.4%

+0.1

+0.2

3.6%

-0.1

Sonstige

2.7%

+0.1

Camera dei deputati

Termometro Politico - 24.01.2020

M5S

15.8%

±0

19.1%

-0.3

Lega

32.5%

-0.4

6.2%

+0.4

FdI

11.1%

+0.5

3.3%

+0.3

1.6%

+0.2

2.5%

+0.4

0.6%

+0.1

1.3%

-0.1

3.9%

-0.7

Sonstige

2.1%

-0.4

Camera dei deputati

Index - 24.01.2020

M5S

16%

±0

18.7%

-0.1

Lega

31.8%

+0.5

6.5%

-0.2

FdI

10.9%

+0.4

2.9%

±0

1.7%

+0.1

2.2%

+0.2

0.9%

-0.1

1.9%

-0.2

4.2%

-0.1

Sonstige

2.3%

-0.5

Camera dei deputati

BiDiMedia - 22.01.2020

M5S

16.4%

-0.6

19%

+0.2

Lega

30.4%

-1.4

6.2%

+0.4

FdI

10.1%

+0.6

+0.2

1.5%

-0.1

2.1%

±0

0.7%

-0.1

1.6%

+0.1

4.9%

+0.1

Sonstige

5.1%

+0.6

Camera dei deputati

Termometro Politico - 22.01.2020

M5S

15.8%

-0.3

19.4%

+0.3

Lega

32.9%

-0.2

5.8%

-0.3

FdI

10.6%

-0.1

-0.2

1.4%

-0.1

2.1%

+0.3

0.5%

+0.1

1.4%

+0.2

4.6%

-0.3

Sonstige

2.5%

+0.6

Data source: EOPAOD

Coalition possibilities

Possible coalitions based on the current PolitPro election trend

Whole Parliament

Lega + M5S + IV

58.5%

Lega + FdI + FI

55.6%

Lega + M5S

53.7%

Lega + FdI + IV

52.9%

PD + M5S + FI + IV

52%

Lega + FdI

48.1%

Lega + FI + IV

48%

PD + M5S + FI

47.2%

The coalitions are determined on the basis of a percentage distribution of seats of all parties represented in parliament. Possible overhang or compensation mandates are not taken into account.

The blocking clause is 3%.

Development of the election trend

The development of all parties since January 2018

M5S

Lega

FdI

NcI

PaP

CPI

Last election

The results of the last election from 04.03.2018

Seats

Party (min. 0.2%)	Percent		Seats
Movimento 5 Stelle	32.7%	7.1%	225	117
Lega	17.4%	13.3%	123	105
Partito Democratico	18.8%	-6.6%	107	-185
Forza Italia	14.0%	14%	103	103
Fratelli d’Italia	4.4%	2.4%	32	23
Liberi e Uguali	3.4%	3.4%	14	14
Noi con l’Italia	1.3%	1.3%	4	4
Partito Popolare Sudtirolese	0.4%	0%	4	-1
Più Europa	2.6%	2.6%	2	2
Civica Popolare	0.5%	0.5%	2	2
Italia Europa Insieme	0.6%	0.6%	1	1
Sonstige	2.8%	-0.3%	0	0
Potere al Popolo	1.1%	1.1%	0	0

In the last election of the 04.03.2018 617 representatives from 11 parliamentary groups were elected to the parliament. The next election is scheduled for the year 2023.