Current Election Trend for Italy
Who is leading in the election trend in Italy?
In the current election trend in Italy, Fratelli d’Italia leads with 27.9%. This is an increase of +1.9 percentage points since the last election.
Partito Democratico reaches 19.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.7 percentage points).
Movimento 5 Stelle reaches 16.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).
Lega reaches 8.3% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.5 percentage points).
Forza Italia reaches 7.5% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-0.6 percentage points).
Azione reaches 4%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
AVS reaches 3.8% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.2 percentage points).
Italia Viva reaches 3.1%. This means a significant loss in voter favor since the last election ().
Più Europa (2.6%), Italexit (1.6%), UP (1.3%) and NM (1.1%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.
2.8% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).
Which polls were considered in the election trend?
For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Termometro Politico, SWG for La7, Tecnè for Dire, Quorum, Demopolis for Otto e Mezzo, Ipsos for Corriere della Sera, Eumetra for PiazzaPulita, Demos & Pi for La Repubblica, EMG for Agorà, Index, Euromedia for Porta a Porta, Ixè and BiDiMedia, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.
Therefore, the will of at least 17007 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.
What values do the small parties have?
Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.
Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.
Could the government stay in office?
Which parties would enter parliament?
In the current election trend, 8 parties could enter parliament: Fratelli d’Italia, Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, Lega, Forza Italia, Azione, AVS and Italia Viva reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.
To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.
Are non-voters considered in the election trend?
Why does PolitPro show the political orientation of parties?
Current Election Trend for EU-Parliament
Latest polls for Italy
What is the latest poll for Italy?
Coalitions
Which coalitions are currently possible in Italy?
Information on the Coalition Overview
The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Italy shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.
The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).
Election trend by party at a glance
Party | 30 days | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | Since election |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fratelli d’Italia |
-0.5
|
-0.6
|
-0.7
|
-1.5
|
+1.9
|
Partito Democratico |
+0.2
|
+0.4
|
-0.1
|
+0.3
|
+0.7
|
Movimento 5 Stelle |
±0.0
|
+0.2
|
±0.0
|
+0.5
|
+0.8
|
Lega |
-0.3
|
-0.8
|
-0.8
|
-0.4
|
-0.5
|
Forza Italia |
+0.1
|
±0.0
|
+0.6
|
+0.6
|
-0.6
|
Azione |
+0.1
|
+0.2
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+4.0
|
AVS |
+0.1
|
+0.4
|
+0.5
|
+0.7
|
+0.2
|
Italia Viva |
+0.1
|
-0.1
|
+0.2
|
±0.0
|
+3.1
|
Più Europa |
+0.1
|
+0.1
|
+0.1
|
+0.4
|
-0.2
|
Italexit |
-0.1
|
-0.4
|
-0.6
|
-0.5
|
-0.3
|
UP |
-0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
-0.1
|
NM |
-0.1
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
±0.0
|
+0.2
|
Italy — National parliament voting intention
Information on the Development of the Election Trend
Government and parliament
Which parties are in the parliament of Italy?
In the parliament of Italy, there are 400 representatives from 15 parties. 237 representatives are part of the government from Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, Forza Italia and NM. The opposition from Partito Democratico, Movimento 5 Stelle, A/IV, AVS, Più Europa, ScN, IC, SVP, MAIE, VdA and Sonstige Parteien has 163 representatives.
155 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 238 representatives are politically more right-leaning.
Who governs in Italy?
Parliamentary election in Italy 2027
The Parliamentary election in Italy 2027 will probably take place in 2027. Once the results are in, the election results will be posted on this page.
Giorgia Meloni is currently governing with a Centre-right coalition of Lega, Forza Italia, Fratelli d’Italia and NM. In the last Parliamentary election in Italy in 2022, Fratelli d’Italia (26% - 119 seats), Partito Democratico (19.1% - 69 seats), Movimento 5 Stelle (15.4% - 52 seats), Lega (8.8% - 66 seats), Forza Italia (8.1% - 45 seats), A/IV (7.8% - 21 seats), AVS (3.6% - 12 seats), Più Europa (2.8% - 2 seats), NM (0.9% - 7 seats), ScN (0.8% - 1 seats), IC (0.6% - 1 seats), SVP (0.4% - 1 seats), MAIE (0% - 1 seats), VdA (0% - 1 seats) and Sonstige Parteien (1.2% - 2 seats) entered parliament. The turnout of that election was 63.9%.