Italy: Polls and trends for the Italian election 2027

Current Election Trend for Italy

Who is leading the election trend?

In the current election trend for the Parliamentary Election in Italy, Fratelli d’Italia is leading with 30.2%, followed by Partito Democratico with 22%, Movimento 5 Stelle with 12.7%, Forza Italia with 8.8%, Lega with 8.3%, AVS with 6.5%, Azione with 3.1%, Italia Viva with 2.4%, Più Europa with 1.6% and NM with 1.2%. Other parties reach 3.2%.

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Italy is expected to take place in 2027.

Government would have to worry

In the current election trend, the government parties receive 51.8% of the votes.
Development since the last election on 25.09.2022
FdI
+4.2
PD
+2.9
M5S
-2.7
FI
+0.7
Lega
-0.5
AVS
+2.9
A
New
IV
New
+E
-1.2
NM
+0.3
Political orientation
FdI
PD
M5S
FI
Lega
AVS
A
IV
+E
NM
What do the symbols mean?
Far left
Left-wing
Centre-left
Center
Centre-right
Right-wing
Far right
Transversal
Liberal politics
Environment & Climate
Animal Protection
Satire
Regional interests
Unknown
FdI
30.2
PD
22.0
M5S
12.7
FI
8.8
Lega
8.3
AVS
6.5
A
3.1
IV
2.4
+E
1.6
NM
1.2
Others
3.2

Coalitions

Who could enter parliament?

In the current election trend, 7 parties could enter parliament: Movimento 5 Stelle reaches 56 MPs, AVS reaches 28 MPs, Partito Democratico reaches 96 MPs, Azione reaches 13 MPs, Forza Italia reaches 38 MPs, Fratelli d’Italia reaches 133 MPs and Lega reaches 36 MPs.

Electoral System

The Italian Parliament has 600 members (400 in the Chamber, 200 in the Senate). 592 are elected through a proportional representation system with a 3% threshold, while 8 seats are reserved for Italians living abroad. The formation of the government occurs through coalitions.

3% restrictive clause

The restrictive clause in Italy is 3%.

Majority from 201 MPs

To form a government, 201 of 400 MPs are required.
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia
56.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Lega
56.5%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + Lega
56.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
54.3%
Fratelli d’Italia + Forza Italia + Lega
51.8%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + Forza Italia + Azione
50.8%
Fratelli d’Italia + Lega + AVS
49.3%
Partito Democratico + Movimento 5 Stelle + AVS
45.0%
400
Majority requires 201 seats
M5S
56
14%
AVS
28
7%
PD
96
24%
A
13
3.3%
FI
38
9.5%
FdI
133
33.3%
Lega
36
9%

Latest polls for Italy

SWG
· 6 days ago
6 days ago
FdI
31.2
PD
22
M5S
13
Lega
8.1
FI
7.9
AVS
6.7
A
3.2
IV
2.4
+E
1.4
NM
1.2
Others
2.9
Quorum
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
FdI
27.8
PD
22.1
M5S
13.4
Lega
7.8
AVS
7.7
FI
7.6
A
3.9
+E
2.8
IV
1.9
NM
0.8
Others
4.2
Eumetra
· 1 week ago
1 week ago
FdI
30.9
PD
22
M5S
12.7
FI
8.3
Lega
8.1
AVS
6.7
A
3.4
IV
2.6
+E
1.4
NM
1.2
Others
2.7

Parliamentary Election in Italy 2022

25.09.2022

Parliamentary Election in Italy 2018

04.03.2018

Italy — National parliament voting intention

FdI PD M5S FI Lega AVS A IV +E NM PTD Exit UP DSP A/IV ScN IC A/+E A1 EV SI LeU

Parties in Italy

Liberal
Socialist
Capitalist
Conservative
FdI PD Lega M5S FI SVP

Election trend by party at a glance

Party 30 days 3 months 6 months 12 months Since election
Fratelli d’Italia
+0.2
+0.6
+0.9
+0.9
+4.2
Partito Democratico
+0.4
+0.2
-0.6
-0.8
+2.9
Movimento 5 Stelle
±0.0
-0.3
+0.3
+1.6
-2.7
Forza Italia
-0.2
±0.0
+0.2
-0.5
+0.7
Lega
±0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-0.5
AVS
+0.1
-0.2
+0.1
-0.2
+2.9
Azione
-0.2
-0.5
-0.1
+0.1
+3.1
Italia Viva
±0.0
+0.3
+0.2
±0.0
+2.4
Più Europa
±0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-1.2
NM
+0.1
+0.2
+0.2
+0.1
+0.3
Show more

Electoral system

Two chambers, equal power - Italy's perfect bicameralism

Italy is one of the few countries in the world with perfect bicameralism: the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate have exactly the same powers. Both must agree to every law - a system that often leads to lengthy back-and-forth exchanges between the chambers, slowing down political decisions.

From 945 to 600 seats - Italy's radical parliamentary reduction

In 2020, Italians voted for a drastic reduction of their Parliament: since 2022, only 600 members sit in Parliament instead of 945. The Chamber shrank from 630 to 400, and the Senate from 315 to 200 seats - one of the largest parliamentary reforms in European post-war history.

Overseas votes and threshold - special features of the Italian election

Eight parliamentary seats are specifically reserved for Italians abroad, who vote in four electoral districts worldwide. The proportional representation system has a 3% hurdle, but coalitions only need to reach 10%. Interestingly, senators must be at least 40 years old, unlike deputies who can be 25.
Direct Election Members are elected directly by the people.
Mixed Vote The election combines candidate votes and party list votes.
Parallel System Some seats are won by majority, others by proportional vote, without adjustment.
One Round The election is decided in a single round of voting.
Free Elections are free, fair and competitive.

Government and parliament

Sergio Mattarella

Head of state

Giorgia Meloni

Head of government
Parties in parliament
Seats in parliament : 400
Government & opposition
Government : 230
Opposition : 170
Political orientation
Left-leaning parties : 155
Right-leaning parties : 238

Most Reliable Polling Institutes in Italy

Score Institute Accuracy Deviation
84
EMG
1.2
low
84
Index
1.2
very low
82
Ipsos
1.2
low
81
Euromedia
1.5
very low
80
BiDiMedia
1.6
low
More Institutes

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
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